• 13 May, 2021
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The Great Fall of China

Maj Gaurav Arya (Retd)
Thu, 31 Dec 2020   |  Reading Time: 7 minutes

The meteoric rise of China in the past three decades is looked upon with trepidation by many and with awe, by others. What we cannot comprehend, we consign to the realm of fantasy. But fantasy is like fog; it dissipates with the rising of the sun.

Let us first start by putting things in the correct perspective. China is not a manufacturing superpower. It is a contract manufacturing superpower. Except for half a dozen mobile phone brands, it is difficult, if not impossible, to recall the name of a Chinese car, motorcycle or even a cigarette lighter. And yet China manufactures everything. There are many reasons for this, but those reasons are not why this article is being written.

My contention is that the modern Chinese nation-state is a loosely cobbled synthetic entity that is held together by depreciating mutual benefit between the citizens and the state, iron control over personal and public social and non-social transactions, deep physical fear and an artificial sense of loyalty to a political construct.

The contract between the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese citizen is simple; receive economic prosperity and in return, give unquestioning loyalty to the Party. This has largely worked for the CCP. But Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs is very real and once the stomach is full and there is a roof over one’s head, the human heart seeks other things that a modern economic miracle is ill-equipped to provide.

In the pyramid of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs lies China’s Achilles heel. The 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests were not the first unveiling of the deep faultlines that are China’s dark underbelly. The 1959 Tibetan uprising against China’s one-party rule is a case in point. The 1999 Falun Gong protests again saw a massive crackdown on free will and expression. The 2011 pro-democracy protests, widely known as the Greater Chinese Democratic Jasmine Revolution, spooked the Communist Party of China. The current upheaval in Hong Kong has again exposed the deep faultlines in Chinese society, a construct that is outwardly prosperous and stable but a gentle push reveals that the structure is neither malleable not ductile. A hard and brittle Chinese society is vulnerable to cracks and fissures.

Another facet of China that is well known but not as frequently discussed as it should be is that the Chinese government is not as afraid of the United States of America or a rising India as it is of its people. What terrifies the Communist Party of China are not America’s aircraft carriers or India’s high-altitude trained, mountain warfare battle-hardened troops. The danger, as far as they are concerned is from a Chinese dissident with a VPN, operating a Twitter handle under an assumed name.

Bloodshed outside. Harmony inside. This is what China seeks.

The economic miracle that has made China the envy of the world and has helped fuel its military expansionist dreams is, amongst other factors, also based on this principle. Internal harmony is what China desperately seeks. And this is why when you cross over from Hong Kong into mainland China, it is like running into an impenetrable firewall. Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp and all other social media platforms that you are so used to, simply stop functioning. Ni hao! Welcome to the Peoples Republic of China.

Herein lies a lesson for India; an internally weak nation cannot be externally strong. The outward projection of power is a pipe dream when you have terrorism in Kashmir, the insurgency in the North East, fireworks along the Line of Control, pressure on the Line of Actual Control, bloodshed in the Red Corridor and elections every three months. India also has a hyper-active fifth column that seeks to weaken India from within. There is enough documentary evidence to prove that various NGOs and individuals, suitably funded and supported, have done an extremely professional job of creating chaos inside our borders. It is not just the IEDs planted by Naxalites in Chintagufa or Sukma. It is also sustained by consistent narrative building that happens on TV debates every evening at 9 pm and across our Universities. You can be a three trillion-dollar economy, going on five trillion. But global superpower? Unlikely! Unless, you and I understand what it takes to be one. Bloodshed outside. Harmony inside.

China and Pakistan have kept India busy with hundreds of “forest fires”. When we are not spending billions of dollars dealing with these fires, we are lifting coffins of our soldiers. Either way, India loses.

There is little point in thinking that our mountain divisions will smash the People’s Liberation Army in Ladakh. Sure, they will. But to what end?

The solution lies in making the Chinese people believe that their Army is neither the People’s nor has it anything to do with Liberation. And the solution lies in ensuring that there is no harmony inside China.

Self-actualization is what the Chinese people seek and the most tangible feature of political self-actualization in a nation-state is democracy. Therefore, the absence of democracy is China’s, Achilles Heel. To contain China, you do not need mountain divisions. You need Maslow.

The situation in Hong Kong has provided us with a roadmap. It is an in-your-face global protest and the only way China knows how to deal with it is force. Not surprising for a nation that has never been run by consensus. But the more force China uses, the more the situation spirals out of control. The reason can be traced back to midnight on 1st July 1997 when Hong Kong was peacefully handed over to China by the United Kingdom, under the “one country, two systems” formula. Not everyone was happy. Having tasted post World War II British democracy, the citizens of Hong Kong didn’t take kindly to Chinese overlordship. They still don’t. Citizens of Hong Kong crave democracy. However, it would be short-sighted on our part to believe that this craving is limited to Hong Kong alone. It manifests itself in mainland China in many ways; irreverent social media posts, protests, small acts of defiance against the Communist Party of China (CCP) and simple questions that are asked in tea shops.

China will never explode, but it can be made to implode. When the “virus” of democracy is injected into the Chinese social bloodstream, the Communist Party of China will catch a cold. This is how that virus will be injected.

Before anything, India must realise that peaceful co-existence with China and its desire to rise as a global power are contradictory. Both cannot happen simultaneously. China will never allow it. It will keep India’s internal security situation on edge through its many proxies and also keep up pressure along the Line of Actual Control. If India wants to manage this situation, it must understand that China’s biggest faultline is not Xinjiang or Tibet. It is the hunger for democracy in the Chinese people. This is India’s biggest weapon against the CCP.

Next, foreign policy mandarins in North Block who have for a very long time advised caution while dealing with China, must be sidelined. There can be no defensive or tentative measures whilst dealing with a marauding wild beast. It is a failure of India’s foreign policy that we don’t have regular diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Think of Taiwan as India’s friendly beachhead. The nation is economically prosperous, democratic and with a population that is 95% of Han Chinese origin. Taiwan is developing its own nuclear weapons program. To add icing on the cake, it is separated from China by a narrow sliver of the sea called the Taiwan Strait, which is not more than 220 kilometres at its widest. China claims Taiwan as part of the Peoples Republic of China. Taiwan remains fiercely independent. India must, with utmost urgency, formalize diplomatic relations with Taiwan and use its international heft to urge friendly countries to do the same.

Parallel to this, India must provide support and sanctuary to Chinese pro-democracy elements who have fled CCP oppression. This need not be done inside India. It can be done in Western countries or Taiwan. It is these pro-democracy activists who will go to various global universities and organisations and tell the truth about oppression in China. They will be part of political pressure groups who will force American and European companies to relook at manufacturing their products inside China. Your biggest business partner cannot be the world’s biggest human rights abuser. Every morning when expensive suit wearing MNC executives enter their steel and glass towers, they must face these Chinese activists standing outside, naming and shaming their companies for doing business with the CCP. When media and social media covers this, it will impact stock prices. That is what big corporates fear.

Books and articles must be published and OTT platforms like Netflix and Amazon Prime must be used to tell stories of CCP perfidy and why China is a gilded cage. While this will create pressure on the outside and can be partially countered by China, at least domestically, what we must largely focus on is inflicting pain in mainland China. For this, Taiwan must be befriended.

A highly motivated and well-paid Information Warfare team must be created, comprising of Hong Kong pro-democracy activists and Taiwanese cyber specialists. The team can be based out of Taiwan. Supporting them will be a professional team of content creators. Content will be created worldwide and Chinese social media platforms like Weibo, Renren, QQ and WeChat will be used to inundate mainland China with pro-democracy content. While many videos and articles will get filtered by the great Chinese firewall, there will be content that will get through.

Pen-drives can be used to send content inside China physically and then spread through VPN based carriers. This must be done consistently. Over a period of time, there will be enough pro-democracy content inside China to give fuel to the Chinese people’s democracy-deprived anger. This makes perfect business sense; there is demand. We ensure quality supply.

The Chinese people must be convinced of the fact that to fear one’s government is not natural and to not be allowed to speak by one’s government is criminal. Fancy cars and iPhones cannot replace freedom. It is not natural. And it is exactly this unnatural act that the Chinese Communist Party is guilty of.

China is simply too economically powerful to be brought to heel. If we think that banning a few Chinese mobile phone apps is a major diplomatic move, let us set our compass straight. China’s is too well intertwined into the global economic system. As I said, China cannot be made to explode. But it can be made to implode.

Create disharmony inside China and the Communist Party of China will crumble. China has ‘banned’ democracy because democracy is its greatest fear. When the common Chinese starts questioning the CCP and demanding democracy, the famed Bamboo Curtain will splinter.

And this will be the beginning of the Great Fall of China.

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POST COMMENTS (41)

hira Lal Saraf

Mar 01, 2021
I pray to God that people like you be blessed so that you do the work nation needs at this point of time. You need to help our country to develop a national echo system to promote the national perspective. i like your chats with Arzoo madam. God Bless you.

Pankaj

Feb 19, 2021
Hello Gaurav ji, Well done in analyzing an obvious problem that no one seems to talk about! You have also given good suggestions that India and rest of the world should follow. I am a regular follower of your channel and Republic on you tube. Some is our politicians and bureaucrats need to study the contents of your articles and videos. Jai Hind

Abhijeet vasishtha

Feb 07, 2021
Amazing article explaining fault lines of china, we as a nation have moved from idealist to realistic approach towards foreign policy(surgical strike being greatest example), hopefully we will be inculcating this in our foreign policy.

VIVEK

Feb 05, 2021
Hello Sir, May be irrelevant to the topic, but can you please explain what exactly happening between India and China on Ladakh border and why no media is allowed to report from ground zero ?

harsha

Feb 04, 2021
Hello! I listen to your videos often. Bhai ek baat Batao, jo ccp, jiski ishare ke bagarre Nasdaq ke share prices move nahi note, hollywood ki movies release nahi hoti, ek ek scene china mein approve Hota hai, Jisne US jaisi country mein voting fraud karva diya, jo literally puri duniya ko chala raha hai. Cananda uski Jeb mein hai, virus outbreak mein canada ne saath diya hai, WHO president ghutne tekta hai, investigation ke naam par guided tour kara sakta hai, toh, Indian government kabhi bhi out of the line Jaake koi kaam nahi Karegi.

Sanjiv Grover

Feb 02, 2021
Great to listen truth from you always , my best wishes are with you you and a lot of thanks .

Jagmohan Chawla

Jan 22, 2021
Very apt, informative and succinct analysis. And your commentary on Fifth Columnists in India is spot on.

Bala Bhaskaran

Jan 10, 2021
The erstwhile USSR had its moment of Perestroika and Glasnost in 1989. In terms of purchasing power the Chinese more equipped today for such an option than the Russians were in 1989. It has to happen from within. In the case of USSR, it happened with internal economic crisis, collapse of the Euro-Communism, fall of the satellite countries [like East Germany, Check, Poland, Hungary etc] from the nasha of Communism and a sensitive president like Gorbochov. China is moving into similar scenario. Tibet, Manchuria, Yunan, and other provinces are the satellite countries. Well history does not always repeat; but it does sometimes. Who knows when?

Sandeep Siriganeni

Jan 09, 2021
The Chinese life before communism was awesome and almost towards self actualization. But now it's nothing but an animal in the farm.

हितेश सैनी

Jan 09, 2021
गौरव आर्या जी आपके विषय के प्रति ज्ञान का मै अतिप्रशंसक हूं। आपने लेख में जो भी कहा है वह शत प्रतिशत सत्य है। भारत के लिए जो सबसे ज्यादा जरूरी है वह है खुद का इको सिस्टम विकसित करना। इसके लिए एक दूरदर्शी व्यक्ति का कम से कम 20 साल लगातार निर्बाध रूप से भारत में शासन होना चाहिए,।

Shivendra Rajpoot

Jan 05, 2021
Brilliant Sir, I am regular viewer of your channel. You are doing the GREAT work.

Chetan

Jan 04, 2021
People of china are like potato inside the pan, they are just made to fry from Ccp.

A Proud Army Brat

Jan 03, 2021
Sir, The article was a fantastic read and exposes many different dimensions which an ordinary guy fails to notice. I'm a regular consumer of almost all your videos on youtube and now on LinkedIn. I believe it's a great idea to put up content on LinkedIn as the audience over here is literate and are capable enough to comprehend the details in much better way and act accordingly. Congratulations for that and please continue enlightening us with your knowledge and analysis. And thanks for making a comment section over here as commenting on LinkedIn post may burn the sentiments of lot of Chinese people who might be under my connections.... Hahaha. Jai Hind!

Harpreet

Jan 02, 2021
Actionable, practical, & specific. Amazing analysis & strategy recommendation sir! Hats off

P Somashekar Gowda

Jan 02, 2021
Sir, Point to point analysis, very nice.

Lt Gen PR Kumar (Retd) ex DGMO

Jan 02, 2021
Excellent article in its simplicity and brevity. We must convince ourselves that geo-politically, economically, strategically and militarily with our comprehensive national strength, size, population and geo-strategic location India cannot be wished away. China can do little by way of harm given the above and our soft power. We are malleable and ductile for thousands of years and absorbed everything while still remaining Indian. China as stated is brittle and stops any outside interference/influence, and therein lies his Achilles heel. We must hasten his implosion and inward looking compulsion, se we fly away. Once again, succinctly put Maj Gaurav Arya

N R G Ganesan

Jan 02, 2021
A practical road to win against China! Wish people who matter can see reason and adapt the idea to great efficacy. It also calls for strong National Will to do what is necessary - weeding out the internal fifth columnists ruthlessly while employing tools required to achieve the objective externally. This cannot be done by the faint hearted or fanciful methods. Machiavelli's methods are the need of the hour.

Vivek G.S

Jan 01, 2021
Major Sir. Hat's of to the analysis. As a simple person working for some cmp how can we do it.

Kalpana

Jan 01, 2021
Major Saab, I've been a biggest fan of your ever since I found your you tube channel. I agree China may fall if we break it from within, but wht should be break China? I shall here assure that neither am I a fan of China or of communism. To me any strand of political governance is like just all those religions that exist in the world, the aim of each one of them is same although with separate thinking. We should focus on our own country, how can we uplift our people? It is a mammoth act just to claim ones own property in India. I'm thinking of all those malpractises that go on in our revenue system. I'm talking from my own experiences: someone I know left the most coveted job in revenue even after succeeding in civil services simply because his consciousness would not allow him to toe the line with practices in revenue system. I myself wasted one whole day just trying to register my own GPA, but still with no success, where are the revenue laws and administrative laws transparently documented and published? These laws are out if reach for educated person like me let alone uneducated. SSR has been murdered months ago, but no sign of justice as yet? D gang's influence in Bollywood is a common knowledge for decades, but why has this been allowed to continue this long and still with no end in sight? Why is the parallel economy and hawala still going on? Stop this parallel economy then we will see progress in India, it has become a " chalta hein" cultur, big fish eats little fish, has become dog eats dog mentality in Indian society. I think we have to reform ourselves first. Once this parallel economy stops no communists will be allowed to pump money to fund their ulterior motives. May be just in the past 1 or 2 years I listened to this radio programme on Radio4, why China is a success and why India could not? They opined that China did not sidelined majority of it's normal people, it took it's masses along with its progression plan and uplifted lives of majority of their population, where as it is opposite in the case of India. Hence we can have an indian CEO in many of the US companies, or in Downing Street, but what does a common man wants? The basic needs in your pyramid, and safety for his life, property and his own people? Have we, as Indians, succeeded in providing this? The answer is an EMPHATIC NO. Then why do we want to breakup China? Is a broken country at doorstep good for us? I'm not sure or at least I'm not convinced yet.

John Doe

Jan 01, 2021
Loved this article Major Sahab! I wonder, though, what is all the holdup? Why haven't we done these things already? I have heard from defense analysts that our bureaucracy is shy and incompetent. Perhaps our current bureaucrats need to be fired. I'm no expert, but I think it's time for new and fresh minds to take the lead. I hope some people in our bureaucracy/politicians read this piece and take some much needed overdue steps. The enemy is wreaking havoc in our internal atmosphere every day, and it's frustrating to know that we're not fighting back Looking forward to your next article..

Anonymous

Jan 01, 2021
Loved this article Major Sahab! I wonder, though, what is all the holdup? Why haven't we done these things already? I have heard from defense analysts that our bureaucracy is shy and incompetent. Perhaps our current bureaucrats need to be fired. I'm no expert, but I think it's time for new and fresh minds to take the lead. I hope some people in our bureaucracy/politicians read this piece and take some much needed overdue steps. The enemy is wreaking havoc in our internal atmosphere every day, and it's frustrating to know that we're not fighting back Looking forward to your next article..

Ranjit

Jan 01, 2021
It's really a eye opening content. A great numbers of chinese people are infact against the one party system... https://youtu.be/lpGk7fAJ7x8

Modi3.0supporter

Jan 01, 2021
Very amazing content ,love you Major Gaurav ,You are truly a Great Indian Gem❤️

Nitin

Jan 01, 2021
...and China's social credit system can be the first target against which its citizens can be moved against.

Sabu Chandran

Jan 01, 2021
Hello I am a great admirer of Maj. Gaurav Arya, I fully agree and acknowledge to the article above, Very well articulated the facts and we need to really look into it else our journey to become super power will be postponed. Stability in our country internally needs to be taken care beacuse we need to shift our gears from 2nd to 3rd, 4th and 5th, we dont have the lusury of time. It is time for India to unite the democratic world and control Chinas expansion and dominance policy around the world.

Shashwat Bhardwaj

Jan 01, 2021
Sir, it is an awesome article and I was just dumbstruck on reading how you showed that we are engaging in North whereas the real battle is in South. Oh My God! Sir A Very very Happy New Year 2021, Shashwat Bhardwaj

Abhishek Dwivedi

Dec 31, 2020
What a brilliant piece...A must read for anyone who thinks of countering the monster Dragon called CCP. I hope people in Indian Bureaucracy/Diplomacy read this fantastic article by Maj. (Retd.) Gaurav Arya !!!

NAVEEN Sharma

Dec 31, 2020
Psychological warfare can be used against china, just like it was used during world war 1-2. Voice recording of pro democracy in Chinese language should be played at borders. The same message repeated day and night in loop. The life under communism and the life under democracy should be compared. The different types of freedom that they are missing. Thoughts and views of pro democracy will enter the sub conscious minds and may get shared with others back in their family and friends. The results of which may not be expected soon, but will surely reap in future. Pamphlets of pro democracy content can be scattered on the borders in Chinese language. It is just like during world war 2, in which to break the moral of US soldiers, pamphlets and loudspeakers were used in which it was said that their wife's and girlfriends are being unloyal and unfaithful to them back home. This had a serious impact on the psyche of the US soldiers. Students of India who visit china for studies can play an important role in spreading this propaganda. Jai Hind Jai Bharat

Umamaheshwar

Dec 31, 2020
One suggestion to strengthen India from within: Decolonize Education. Normally, whenever someone mentions decolonization of education, it is mistaken to mean only history. Not just that, we need to decolonize mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology, medicine - all subjects. Mathematics - A few examples: NCERT is currently importing the school text from USA. Take geometry for example, what they teach in schools is a muddy mix of different types of geometry like Hilbert's Synthetic Geometry, Birkhoff's Axiomatic Metric Geometry, and a bit of Compass Geometry. Finally, the student is confused. This is what makes mathematics - all over the world, because the West has colonized education completely - a very difficult subject bereft of fun and life. However, teaching mathematics, actually GANIT, the way it developed in India and later spread to West, will make mathematics much more easy, fun and meaningful. Students will understand how mathematics is used in Physics, that is to solve real world problems. Teaching mathematics the Indian way will help us speed up academic advancement by a few years. This will give India a tremendous competitive edge over other countries and will give us better chances of bridging the technology gap between India and the West, and between India and China. Prof CK Raju has done a lot of pioneering research on the subject of decolonization of mathematics and physics and will be the ideal leader to drive this initiative. Biology and Medicine Before the colonizers landed in India, they had zero knowledge on Biology and Medicine. Their rapid advancements during and post colonial period is due to the theft of materia medica from Kerala, and similar theft of traditional knowledge from across the world. However, Western Biochemistry is incapable of handling the modern day life style complications like hypertension, diabetes, cancer etc. It is for this reason Universities in USA are now trying to digest Ayurveda into Western Biochemistry. Indian Universities and Bureocrats are unaware of the game, instead even AYUSH like institutions are thirsting for recognition from American Universities - unaware of the fact that once digested Ayurveda will be abolished form India as well. What India needs to do is retain the utility of Biochemistry and advances in Surgical technologies, but reform the medical system to bring it nearer to the masses based on Ayurveda and the democratization of medicinal knowledge.

Sanjeev

Dec 31, 2020
Brilliant analysis and very lucidly written. Please write more often Major saab.

Prabhav Jain

Dec 31, 2020
Great content well written Major. You gave a new Perspective to all those people who think China is too big to fall. I am with you in any ups and downs. I am following your channel defensive offense from last 8-9 months and everytime you post a video i feel like i am contented for that day and awaits for your next video. Long way to go.. Jai Hind.

MADHUSUDAN SRIVASTAVA

Dec 31, 2020
Here after defensive offence, I've question " why'll Chinese support us or they'll go against their own govt coz they're having a good life in every term like jobs, education, prestige & all as u mentioned.

Sfn

Dec 31, 2020
TCL, Changan are a couple of companies other than cell phone brands in China. By the way China already bought Haier, Volvo & Toshiba too. Anyway China has a stark contrast between poors & rich. So flashy cars & iPhone will matter which are being afforded by more & more Chinese everyday. Injection of democracy can be tried in a hope for implosion but any technique for implosion of Pakistan didn't work so its unlikely it'll work against China given the nationalism of its populace. China has played smart by banning Western Social Media sites from the get go, the thing other countries are realizing now. If India follows your advice, ten years down it'll be standing with some more billion dollars lost & it's people living in the same poverty as they're now. Instead India needs to work with positivity & achieve prosperity for its people contrary to being schadenfreude, because it never worked.

Nilu Jhankar

Dec 31, 2020
It's a eye opening content...

Ashish Nain

Dec 31, 2020
I agree. We may not be as strong as China, economically. But we have resources which are more than enough to make this happen. If a failed and beggar state like Pakistan can dare to do this to India unendingly, so can we to it's master. The population of this country is ready and willing. But the political leadership and bureaucracy have held themselves in shackles. I say," Yes. Let's do it."

M Nagesh Kini

Dec 31, 2020
Indepth analysis on the strengths and weaknesses of Peoples Republic of China. How to mend its Government and CCP. I liked your strategy of firing up the hunger for freedom among Chinese people. Economic sanctions and boycotting goods and services will not work. As you said implotion inside the China is the key to break the Chinese hegemony. Very Enlightening.

Dr Mukesh Batra

Dec 31, 2020
India's self-inflicted conundrum is 1. Should we fight 2. If so, who should we fight 3. If we decide to fight, who's on our side. This self-inflicted conundrum in my view is not entirely our own doing but also burdened on us by imposed abrahamic frameworks, which btw have also long enslaved Europe and much of the Western Free World. The imposition of enslaving abrahamic frameworks is very compulsive, and some of the Europe may have already started waking to this rude shock. To simplify, majority of the existing world is a product of 3 pronged abrahamic "enslaving" faith strategy. China uses and abuses strategy. And India tries sometimes a strategy b strategy c strategy... The point I hope India realises is that India trying strategies is like a jockey beating his dead horse front, back and below to win an already long lost race. What India actually needs to do is get out of this enslaving and burdening abrahamic faith horse race mentality. We don't need to run the race because it is not our race. The Sun of not just liberation but of crowning glory and leadership is already there for us to be worn, we just need to go and wear it! #JaiHind 🇮🇳

Jasdeep Singh

Dec 31, 2020
Sir, Jasdeep here and I am a old fan of your blogs always. You pen speaks truth with katana sword. I was waiting from a long time to read something from you, thank you and congratulations for this new platform. I wish you a happy new year. Jai hind sir 🙏🏻

Sumeet Sabnis

Dec 31, 2020
Nicely written article. It precisely shows what the CCP fears. Indian govt has been too lenient and ignorant about doing this. It is high time we start meddling in this kind of activities. Major Gaurav Arya has started a very good thing of spreading awareness. Jai Hind!!

Devanshu Pandey

Dec 31, 2020
Excellent article. Spot on with regards to Chinese capabilities and negatives. Guess replication and contact manufacturing is an forte of an Indian community far superior to Chinese. One of the Mumbai suburbs (Ulhasnagar) has done that for quite sometime.

THE GREAT FALL OF CHINA – MAJOR GAURAV ARYA (VETERAN)

Dec 31, 2020
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