A War Like No Other

The current Russia-Ukraine war has no parallel in history. No country has ever invaded another country, which is in no position to deliver the outcome that the aggressor desires even if the latter is vanquished or even destroyed. The security guarantees that Russia wants can be given only by the US and NATO which are not in the war. No disproportionately powerful nation has ever bogged down for nearly a month in a much weaker neighbouring country without attaining its objectives.

When Russia amassed troops around Ukraine, in November 2021 after US and Ukraine agreed on a new charter, it repeatedly stated that there would be war only if Ukraine was admitted to NATO. No ultimatum was given either to NATO or to Ukraine and no demands were made. President Putin began with security guarantees by demanding that NATO should not extend eastwards, but ended up with nostalgic thoughts about the glory of the Soviet Union and putting the blame for the collapse of the Soviet Union on Lenin, Stalin, Brezhnev and Gorbachev for giving nationalities to the Republics and by giving them discretion to secede from the Soviet Union. Was there a war ever started with such a far-reaching agenda?

The decision of the US and NATO to fight a devastating war with sanctions alone is another new feature of this war. But the sanctions have gone beyond the worst warnings of CATSAA, which are hurting not only the target nation, but also a host of unintended victims, including the sanctioning countries themselves. If this war were to be won with sanctions alone, it would be the emergence of a new kind of warfare, which may be more merciful, but more widespread in its consequence.

This is also perhaps the first major war being fought on the internet by propaganda and counter propaganda by some of the most technologically advanced nations of the world. This is totally unbalanced as the sanctions have deprived Russia of many platforms for propaganda. Since Putin’s aggression is becoming more and more ineffective on the ground and the cyber space is not available to him, he has been driven to threaten the use of nuclear weapons. If Putin ever uses nuclear weapons, he will be remembered as the only one in history who will have used it against intolerable propaganda and sanctions.

A war being attributed to a single individual is not unheard of in history. But, in this case, one does not hear anything about a Politburo or a group of Generals advising him, though some Russian Generals seem to have perished on account of the war. There are theories that the war is being fought in Putin’s mind, which has been shaped by the KGB. His warnings to traitors of a natural and necessary self-purification of society for the sake of the country are ominous in this context.

Since this is an exceptional war, its end will also be exceptional. A conventional surrender either by Putin or Zelensky is unthinkable. It follows that the war will be prolonged beyond expectations interrupted only by some pretence of negotiations. Russia and even NATO virtually ignored the offer of Zelensky to give up its ambition to join NATO and to reintegrate the two provinces, which declared independence and got recognised by Russia. In other words, no one knows how to end this war. It remains as meaningless today as it was on February 24, 2022. As Biden prepares to leave for Europe to consult NATO leaders, the possibility of a wider conflict comes into view.

The unique features of this war do not end there. The David and Goliath story resurrected three days after the war began, ostensibly because the expected blitzkrieg did not happen. Indeed, we saw the rise of David beyond all proportions. Never have we seen a war in which the underdog became a valiant hero even when he was alive. Whether it was because of a grand plan, which went awry or the triumph of a strategy to conquer without undue damage to life and property is yet to be determined.

Where have we seen a President fighting for his own survival getting access to the Parliaments of the world and receiving a standing ovation? These cannot be accidents of history. These must be the harbingers of a new world order. These must be the birth pangs of a configuration of nation states never witnessed before in history. The world cannot be unaware of the likelihood of the emergence of a powerful authoritarian leadership if Putin wins with the support of China. The future of the world will depend on when the west will decide to enter the war to preserve its predominance.

For the major powers of the world, the war presents unprecedented choices. China’s “no limits” alliance with Russia seems to be weakening as days pass. It sees the Ukraine war as a rehearsal for the fight for Taiwan. In his conversation with Biden, Xi Jinping spoke at length on the issue and expressed concern that some in the US were sending danger signals on Taiwan, hinting that there was room for exploring how firm the US will be in the event of Chinese action on Taiwan.

China seems to believe that Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable.

Some Chinese analysts believe that “at this point, Putin’s best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.” China may well be learning from this war a lesson with regard to its intentions towards Taiwan.

India is under greater pressure than ever before to dilute its policy of abstention as the war rages on. Purchasing of oil from Russia at this point is a red rag for global opinion. While everyone realises that India has vital interests in Russia, its new alignment with China raises questions of more vital interests in safeguarding our democratic credentials. We cannot discount the public opinion against Russia by attributing it to western propaganda. Australia’s assurance that the Quad understands the Indian position is no great comfort for India.

Now that the biggest challenge India faced in the early part of the war in the form of rescuing Indians stranded in the war zone has ended, a more critical appraisal of our position is warranted.

A war like no other warrants a solution like no other.

*******************