The Ukraine Crisis – A Golden Opportunity for India

The Ukraine war casts aspersions on the quality of the Think Tanks present in the US & NATO as a whole. A scrutiny of various events prior to the current war in Ukraine seems to indicate an attempt to isolate or economically destabilize Russia which would enable western powers to gain substantial influence over Russian politics and especially its energy resources not to mention the marginalization of Russia as a major international manufacturer and supplier of weapons.

Right since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the US and NATO have been endeavouring to extend their influence over all former Soviet Bloc countries. Historically speaking, this has been the norm of all great powers since time immemorable so, such imperialistic ambitions of the US and NATO are quite understandable. All they had to do was to use these countries as footballs and see how far they could push them before evoking any robust response from Russia. It seems like the US & Western thinkers were planning to emulate what Ronald Regan did to the erstwhile Soviet Union by emasculating it economically. The deaths of a few million Ukrainians or East-European nationals would have been acceptable to the US and NATO if it enabled them to succeed in their mission to subjugate Russia.

However, these Think Tanks seem to have forgotten one crucial factor. It’s no longer a bi-polar world but a multi-polar world with China, India etc. emerging as major economic and military centers with their own, self-centred and ambitious foreign policies. Additionally, Russia is not another North Korea or Pakistan that can be bullied and cajoled with threats of economic sanctions. Russia is still a major military power with a reasonably good economy and significant energy resources. This is evident from the fact that, despite a major thrust in the anti-Russian propaganda by the, western sponsored, media and social media, and the thunderous condemnation of Russia by most western countries, a lot of European countries tacitly continue to procure a significant proportion of their energy requirements from Russia.

Based on the above, one is justified in casting aspersions on the strategic advisors and Think Tanks of the US and NATO countries. I admit that the US is still the premier economic and military power in the world but, in today’s world, taking Asian and European powers for granted was a colossal mistake. Financial powerhouses like China, India, UAE, Saudi Arabia etc. have refused to tow the US or Western line on Ukraine and are still doing business with Russia. It seems like the planners in the US and NATO didn’t factor in these possibilities when they decided to take on Russia nor did they figure out the impact of their actions on a global economy, already battered by Covid.

The poorly planned and highly moronic endeavours of the US and NATO have not only brought a lot of economies around the globe to their knees but has also severely impacted the US and NATO countries. Now there are only two options available to the US. One is to continue with its belligerent aggression against Russia and the second is to enter into a, mutually face-saving, peace deal with Russia. If the US chooses to maintain and escalate this aggression then, if pushed to a corner, Putin might choose to go for the nuclear option. After all, at that stage, he wouldn’t have much to lose. He might fire a few nukes into Europe and/or distribute a few dozen nukes to Iran or to terror groups in Syria, Iraq, North Africa etc. This will have a devastating effect on the entire world. The second option of entering into a peace deal with Russia on mutually face saving terms for both countries is the more sensible option and this is where India can play a significant role.

The domestic political scenario in the US is at its worst since independence so the Biden and his Democrats will need a face-saving deal with Russia in order to protect their domestic vote share. Similarly, Putin needs a deal that will exhibit him as a hero in Russia. Currently, India is the only country which has substantial goodwill and influential ties with both the US and Russia so, it’s in a perfect position to work out a peace deal between these nations. However India should discard its benevolent attitude of the 60’s and 70’s and go into this with a businesslike approach and should make sure that it gets a good deal from both these countries for its endeavours at establishing peace between them.

India could demand a highly preferential trade agreement with the US and NATO countries so as to greatly enhance western investments, including technology sharing, in our country and also vastly augment the share of Indian products in western markets. Similarly, vis-à-vis Russia, India can sign a long term agreement to get access to Russian energy resources and technology at highly discounted prices. We could also use Russian and American influence in Africa and South America to establish a substantial footprint in those continents. The US will be highly amenable to these demands as this will significantly affect China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in those continents. With the goodwill of the US, NATO and Russia behind us, we could put extreme pressure on Pakistan in order to get back POK.

These were just suggestive proposals but the bottom line is that India has a fantastic opportunity to exploit once the US and Russia realize that peaceful negotiations are the only solution to the Ukraine crisis.