The Paradigm Shift in Latin America’s Electoral Politics and Rise of the “Pink Tide”

The victory of Gustavo Petro, in Columbia’s presidential election, is one of the most significant moments in the country’s modern history. Columbia gained independence in the year 1810, and never in its history has any left party candidate been voted to power. This election is historic as it would be the first time in independent history that an Afro-Columbian woman, Francia Marquez would be occupying the post of vice-president.

With Petros’s victory, many experts believe in the return of the “Pink Tide”. The term was coined to refer to the phenomenon wherein several left parties came to power in various countries in Latin America in the early 2000s. The victory is also historic in the sense that, even during the peak of the pink tide, the Columbian presidency remained with the centrist and conservative parties.

Gustavo Petro’s victory was preceded victories of by Gabriel Boric in Chile, Xiomara Castro in the Honduras, Luis Arce in Bolivia, Pedro Castillo in Peru , Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico and Alberto Fernández in Argentina. All leaders are believed to be on the left side of the political spectrum. Thus, cementing the fact of the return of “Pink Tide” with slightly different traits and characteristics.

Experts believe that poor covid management and slow pace of economic recovery, are primarily responsible for the recent change of governments in Latin America. According to a report, the region accounted for over 30% of covid-induced deaths, while only accounting for 8% of the world’s population. The region’s economy also contracted by a whopping 7% in 2020, twice the rate of global GDP. Chile, one of the advanced economies of the region, is expected to grow at 1.4% in 2022 and 0.1% in 2023.

Petro ascended to power on the promise of reducing income inequality (20% of the population own about 60% of wealth), poverty (40% poverty rate), curbing inflation (annual inflation of 10%) and growing unemployment (14.3% as of 2021). He has promised reforms in the agrarian sector, which contributes to 1/5th of total jobs. He has also promised to expand social welfare programs in education and healthcare and has promised to tax rich and wealthy elites. His agenda also includes reducing the dependence of Colombia on fossil fuels (40% of export revenue is from oil) and energy transition. He has also promised stringent actions against drug syndicates.

The way ahead is not going to be easy for Petro. Yes, he has the presidency, but the Colombian right, which has ruled for decades, has an outsize influence over the institutions. Also, Petro’s leftist bloc has only 25 seats in the 188 ­member parliament. His decision to reduce Columbia’s dependence on fossil fuels (oil and gas) which contributes to 40% of the country’s export revenues, may face opposition from the cash-rich and powerful oil industry. Also, without a sufficient source of alternative clean energy, it may have an economic impact.

Petro must stay put and focus to heal the country which has been pulverised by civil conflict, drug wars and economic inequality.