The Establishment’s Real Game in Pakistan

Ever since its independence, political turmoil has always been an integral part of Pakistani politics except during periods of direct military rule i.e. for an overall period of approximately 37 years. This proves that sometimes, the sword is also mightier than the pen. Of course, even during periods of regular political rule, the military controlled all critical areas of governance. Needless to say, most politicians were/are creations and puppets of the military rulers and did exactly what the military wanted them to do. Over the years, the proverbial carrot and stick technique has worked wonders for the military. It never bothered them that their insatiable greed of for money and power was detrimental to the interests of Pakistan as a nation. The admirable part is that, somehow or the other, the always managed to maintain a clean image in the minds of the general populace. Of course, in case of any threat to their image, they always managed to find a convenient scapegoat be it Gen. Niazi for the 1971 loss or, on other occasions, Nawaz Sharif, Benzir Bhutto etc. talking of Gen. Niazi’s 1971 surrender, logically speaking, he couldn’t have signed the surrender documents without the consent of the ruling government and/or the army chief but he was made the scapegoat and the populace were conveniently brainwashed in that regard.

Coming to the current political imbroglio in Pakistan, when one looks at the overall scenario over the past few years, it becomes evident that it’s just another move by the military establishment to gradually get back to direct power in Pakistan. when Nawaz Sharif, a former creation/puppet of the military, during his third stint as Prime Minister, started crossing swords with the military, they used every trick in the book to dethrone him and in August 2018, they replaced him with a highly subservient and reasonably popular albeit relatively incompetent Imran Khan. They figured that, with Imran Khan as Prime Minister, they could conveniently continue with their nefarious activities of bleeding and destroying Pakistan and if things went bad then Imran was the perfect scapegoat for them. However, much to their chagrin, when it came to governance, Imran was far too incompetent than their expectations and his sub-zero diplomatic skills were costing them dearly. So, it was imperative to get rid of Imran and replace him with another suitable puppet. However the problem was that there was no such suitable candidate and the existing ones like Nawaz Sharif, Asif Zardari etc. were far too rebellious for their comfort. So, the only option available to the military was to take direct charge of the country.

About 30-40 years ago, it would have been easy for them to stage a coup against the Imbecilic Imran and take direct control of Pakistan but, in the current era, it would have led to plenty of international repercussions. Pervez Musharraf was lucky to get away with his coup because of 9/11 otherwise the Pakistani Establishment would have been in a major soup at that time. Therefore the military had to work out a strategy to come back to power in Pakistan without antagonizing the international community.

The first step, in this regard, was to unite the opposition parties and get them to stage a fierce political battle against Imran Khan. This was achieved easily by offering them plenty of carrots and assurances. One can only conjecture about the mental state of the opposition leaders for agreeing to accept power because, salvaging the Titanic after it hit the iceberg would have been child’s play compared to rescuing Pakistan from its dire predicament. Nevertheless, bearing in mind the unreliability of these parties, a section of the military was given the task of offering tacit support to Imran Khan in this political battle. That way, the military would have plenty of leverage in case the opposition parties went off the rails once they came back to power. The second step was to get the opposition to seize power by forcefully ejecting Imran from his post as Prime Minister. Once this was accomplished, the section of the army that offered tacit support to Imran made sure that they kept the pot boiling as was evident from Imran’s non-stop aggressive rhetoric against the government. At the same time, the army continued encouraging the government to take a strong stance against Imran and his followers.

As things stand right now, a violent conflagration between the government and Imran is inevitable and this will result in major chaos, akin to civil warlike conditions inside Pakistan. This will give the Establishment the perfect opportunity to dispose of the political government and take direct charge of Pakistan. Even the international community would have no objections as long as the military ‘promises’ to restore democracy in the near future and, as long as the Establishment co-operates with the West, there’ll be no pressure on them on the democracy front. This is a win-win situation for the Establishment as they can use western help to resist any Indian or Chinese pressure as well as getting financial aid to enrich themselves and somehow, keep the Pakistani engine running. Any domestic protest or unrest can be put down through the time-tested method of threats, arrests, enforced kidnappings etc. and the West will have no problem turning a blind-eye to that as long as the military complies with their wishes. This is the best way out for the Establishment as all their assets, families etc. are based in the West (including Australia). From the Chinese point of view, they have already sunk billions of dollars in Pakistan and they have already opened enough fronts against Taiwan, India and the rest of their neighbours and, given their current internal problems, they can ill-afford to open another front against Pakistan nor can they seize assets mortgaged by Pakistan as these assets will be protected by a bunch of Jihadis.

As far as the Establishment is concerned, they have the cake and can eat it too.