Ghost of Galwan Returns to Haunt China

The Ghost of Galwan returned to haunt China and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), just as China prepared to showcase the controversial opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics 2022 at Beijing on the fourth of February.  Qi Fabao, a Regimental Commander of the PLA who was by China’s own reluctant admission grievously injured during the June 2020 skirmish with Indian troops in the Galwan Valley, was accorded the honour to carry the torch. An insensitive China was, after all, trying to portray Galwan as a victory to the world and more importantly to her own people. Unfortunately, the Communist Party of China (CCP) had refused to accept that their soldiers had suffered any casualties in the PLA-initiated skirmish with mediaeval weapons.

According to a recent report released by Australian newspaper Klaxon, at least 38 PLA soldiers died in the skirmish at Galwan in June 2020. The newspaper claims it has based its story on a report titled ‘Galwan Decoded’ prepared by a group of social media researchers. The researchers however declined to reveal their identity citing security reasons but claimed that their report is based on a year-long investigation involving discussions with Chinese bloggers, information obtained from Chinese citizens and deleted media reports.

The report goes on to state “However evidence provided by a group of social media researchers, which The Klaxon has independently built on, appears to support claims that China’s casualties extended well beyond the four soldiers named by Beijing. It also shows extreme lengths Beijing has gone to in order to silence discussion about the battle – in particular, discussion about the true number of Chinese casualties.”^[1] The report further states that a number of PLA soldiers died while attempting to cross the fast-flowing Galwan River while retreating in panic during the early stages of the June 15-16 clash. The report also quotes a Weibo user who claims to have served in Galwan as saying that the Chinese Army was creating infrastructure in the buffer zone, violating the mutual agreement and had been trying to expand its patrolling limits within the buffer zone since April 2020.^[2] The research further revealed that immediately after the skirmish, the bodies of the PLA  soldiers were first taken to Shiquanhe Martyr Cemetery, and only thereafter to the  local towns of the  soldiers for the final ceremonies.  The report also states: “A division of Xinjiang Military Region organised officers and soldiers to go to the Shiquane Martyr Cemetery to lay flowers to the revolutionary martyrs, organise party members to take an oath and sweep the tombs for heroes”.^[3]

The fact that the PLA suffered more than 40 fatal casualties has been inferred in many other reports originating from various think tanks and sinologists around the world. TASS, a Russian news agency, reported early in 2021 that the Chinese suffered 45 dead and Indians 20 in a deadly clash on 15/16 June 2020. China, however, refused to either divulge or even acknowledge any PLA casualties till February 2021.

Lt General YK Joshi, the then Indian Army Commander responsible for the defence of Eastern Ladakh in a much-publicised media interaction on 11 Feb 2021 refused to speculate on any figure but said, “I don’t want to make an estimate. While the incident happened, we had our Observation Posts (OPs) sitting and observing the area. We were able to count a large number of casualties, which were being picked up on stretchers and taken back. More than 60 actually, but whether they were fatal or non-fatal, we can’t say with authority so I will not give a figure.”^[4] It was immediately after this that on 19  February 2021, eight months after the clash  along the High Himalayas that China finally acknowledged  that four soldiers had died in the clash, awarding posthumous medals to Battalion Commander Major Chen Hongjun, Private Chen Xiangrong and Junior Sergeant Xiao Siyuan, who died fighting  Indian force and  one  Junior Sergeant Wang Zhuoran who reportedly  drowned in the Galwan River.

China’s three warfare strategies are predicated on ‘Public Opinion, Psychological Warfare and Legal Warfare’. The clash on Galwan was initiated by the PLA on an unsuspecting and unprepared Indian patrol led by Colonel Santosh Babu with spikes and clubs employed in mediaeval times, shattering a nearly four decades old ‘Peace and Tranquility’ based on Five agreements (1993, 1996, 2002, 2005 and 2013) between the two nuclear armed Asian giants. The fact that the PLA did not employ any conventional weapons gave the Chinese a reason to propagate that they had not violated the agreements (Legal Warfare).

Though the PLA did achieve initial surprise on the night of 15/16 June 2020, ambushing the Indian patrol, they were themselves surprised by the effective retaliation by the Indian troops, who also demonstrated restraint by not resorting to the use of weapons.  Indian soldiers suffered 20 fatal casualties and some others were injured in this clash at altitudes of 5000 metres.

According the honour due to soldiers who make the supreme sacrifice, the last rites of Indian soldiers were performed at their native places with thousands of citizens paying homage with extensive coverage in the media. The gallantry was also duly recognized by the President of India awards on the occasion of Republic Day, with Colonel Santosh Babu, the Commanding Officer of 16 Bihar being awarded the Maha Vir Chakra, the second highest gallantry award.

On the other side, Beijing decided to maintain complete silence on the casualties suffered mainly to appease her own people and project to the world the invincibility of the PLA (Public Opinion). Beijing silenced and stifled any and everybody who dared talk or post of casualties suffered in Galwan on social media platforms. It can be very demoralising for the Army and the people when a nation does not respect and recognize soldiers who fought and died for the motherland. For an aggressive China, face and power projection are more important. It needs to be reiterated that the PLA is an instrument of the CCP, and hence their supreme leader Xi Jinping, already facing internal dissent, could not have afforded a set back to his all powerful image, as he tries for an unprecedented third term in office.

The fact that there have been no more Galwans in itself is ample evidence of the numerous casualties suffered by China. Though it is not a balance sheet, had the PLA not suffered 40 odd soldiers dead in the clash, we would have witnessed many more Galwans. Knowing the PLA, similar weapons like spikes and clubs as also orders would have been issued to all units deployed along the LAC. The effective retaliation and an unexpected aggressive response by Indian troops in Galwan forced a review by the PLA. This is one of the primary reasons that there has been no escalation whatsoever along the LAC. China respects strength and India has demonstrated a strategic resolve.

China has bitten more than it can chew and is likely to seek a face-saving exit, though she is likely to continue her ‘Military Coercion’ in the near term due to domestic compulsions. It has also been reported in many quarters that the Chinese soldiers have suffered 60 plus cold and weather-related casualties in the second year of winter deployment along the High Himalayas.

India has by far the most battle hardened and combat rich troops in the world, especially in high altitude warfare. The experience and expertise consolidated from decades of deployment adds to the resilience, resolve and morale of the soldier, something which the PLA lacks, as 40 percent of soldiers are conscripts who look over their shoulders to complete the mandatory service safely and return to a more comfortable civil life taking the benefits of army service.

The Indian Military is fully prepared for the long haul. Army Chief General MM Naravane in his Army Day interaction with the media categorically stated that, “We will not allow any unilateral changes along our borders. We will respond to such attempts swiftly and decisively”.  The Army Chief went on to state that “Extra forces have been deployed along the Northern Borders, seeing the security situation. We believe the disputes can be settled using existing mechanisms. Our commitment to peace is a testament to our strength. If anyone mistakes that as a weakness, they will have to pay a heavy price,” he added.

A belligerent China is now faced with a challenge of finding a face-saving exit in view of a resilient resolve by India along the LAC. China on her part has opened up many fronts, be it Taiwan, South China Sea, East Sea, Korea or the India – China border. Both Beijing and New Delhi would like to resolve the situation through talks, and despite Galwan, the talks at political, diplomatic and more importantly at the military level continue.

The 14^th round of Corps Commander level talks may not have yielded a much-expected resolution, but the fact that the two sides decided to continue the talks seeking disengagement from the three remaining friction areas is in itself a positive indication. India is fully prepared to meet and mitigate the China challenge, as New Delhi seeks a ‘Status Quo Ante’ as of April 2020.  It is now up to China to find a mutually acceptable and equitable resolution addressing India’s concerns.

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References-

^[1]  https://www.theklaxon.com.au/home/china-india-clash-death-58xj7

^[2]  Ibid

^[3]  Ibid

^[4]  https://www.news18.com/news/india/russian-agency-says-45-chinese-soldiers-killed-in-galwan-valley-that-could-be-the-figure-lt-gen-yk-joshi-3444977.html

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