Afghanistan Mess, India’s Concern

Recently we saw the Taliban overrunning broad strips of Afghanistan and now also in the northern provinces which were never under them. And the rage of the Taliban is much more dangerous than before 2001. At that time they didn’t have as much support as now it has.

The US was the only ‘Big Guy’ then but now dynamics have changed, China has entered the game. China is like an accelerator of the situation which will give all kinds of support to get-in and control the regional politics. In fact hypocrisy is, Taliban shaking it’s hand with China and supporting China openly despite the fact that the atrocity Uyghur Muslims are facing are committed by China.

And also now they are aiming for Chinese investment in Afghanistan. The fate of Pakistan is already in the hands of China. And the terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Al-badr Mujahideen and many more from Pakistan have now joined hands with Taliban and are sending thousands of terrorists from Pakistan to Afghanistan. China is already supplying lots of money to Pakistan to keep the pot boiling. Farid Mamundzay, Afghan Ambassador to India said “Pakistan has its influence in Taliban… if Pakistan wants it can bring Taliban for negotiations… but it’s all about vested interests.”

Pakistan has the golden opportunity to follow it’s deep state policy ‘Bleed India with 1000 cuts’ for which Taliban will be the key player for attacking Kashmir and bring instability again, more so since the J&K elections are approaching. This election has a lot more importance as it’s the first ever since the abrogation of Article 370.

Pakistan’s targets and choices will be clear. India which has a significant geo-strategic importance is surrounded with threats and unfriendly neighbours. Infiltration/drone/cyber attacks from Pakistan, military aggression from China, infiltration from Bangladesh, India’s development projects in all Afghanistan provinces of USD 3 billion dollars are also at stake now. These are some of India’s biggest concerns.

India’s to do list-

The first priority is to evacuate Indians from consulates in Afghanistan. India supports the Afghanistan government by assisting them economically, politically and diplomatically. And at the end of the day Taliban are Afghans. They will need to talk with Afghan people and the Government. India’s constant support and also by sending a strong message to Taliban to drop the arms and get integrated with mainland and mainstream society and maintain peace can make a huge difference.

As of now Afghanistan has not officially requested for military assistance from India but in future if requested India can give it. Our External ministers and diplomats are already in constant touch with Russia and Iran. So India also getting support from Iran and Russia is a sign of hope. Another thing is to pressurize Pakistan and isolate it at the world level. This will accelerate the process to make Pakistan realise it’s reality. Now India needs to be offensive on these issues and speak up for the same.

And to counter China, speaking up is much needed be it on Uyghur Muslims or Taiwan as well as modernization of Armed forces. We already know China’s role in Pakistan and in other economically deprived countries which are our neighbours. Institutionalization of Quad and forming of Quad + will give upper hand. Indian Government policies are clearly on maintaining good ties with allies which makes the game in our favor.

Recently the West in it’s National security doctrine has clearly stated it’s strategy and importance towards Indo-Pacific region. Also now Japan has officially listed Taiwan and India in it’s defence reports, so progress is happening within and outside India.