OF BILLIONS , BARRELS AND BOMBS : THE WORLD AND INDIA

The cesspool of international diplomacy and geo-strategic deal-making ultimately boils down to the unending pursuit of billions in cash, barrels of crude and bombs of precision and sophistication
The many outcomes of a Head-of-state visit ranges from joint press releases , MoUs, and fancy dinner banquets amongst normal nations ; to a cricket match-if you’re India and Pakistan. On subtracting the fake pleasantries and unending hogwash about shared culture , friendship and people to people ties ; one encounters the shrewd , transactional and unforgiving manner in which countries barter interests : Welcome to international politics

The abundance or absence of the troika of billions , barrels and bombs reflects upon the bargaining position of a nation when diplomats sit across the table to discuss seemingly benign issues like “climate change” , “human rights” and “sustainable development”-essentially bisecting the strategic community into haves and have-nots.

The enviable prominence that America enjoys on the international stage is in turn mostly due to a large economy, energy security and an unmatched military wherewithal- a sound blend of billions, barrels and bombs. The other country that hopes to catch up – China , has been working on strengthening its billions for quite some time now -CPEC OBOR , RCEP and an investment deal with the EU. It is actively courting stable sources of barrels- A 400 billion $ deal with Iran and an increasingly aggressive gulf outreach . That it suffers from tangible deficiencies on the bombs front -although
that could change circa 2035 , thanks to an ambitious defence modernisation plan of the PLA, is hardly any cause of respite for nations that cherish democratic values ( read India and US).

Seeing Indian strategic thinking through the prism of billions could make one happy about the economic reforms in the 1990s and the coming-of-age of the IT sector but it leaves much work to be done to build and augment a dependable and robust domestic manufacturing scene coupled with a vibrant industrial policy framework -all of it interwoven to result in an economy capable of raking in billions of dollars of foreign capital and cutting edge industrial technology.
China is sitting on a demographic time bomb – that should make it easier for India to slowly but steadily take the baton of global manufacturing and embed itself in supply chains, ultimately driving a considerable chunk of global manufacturing and consumption-putting it on a strong footing on the billion limb of the tripod.
The policy of switching to electric mobility could exponentially reduce India’s dependence on imported crude ,exponentially increasing our strength on the second limb – the barrels ; looking for domestic reserves of natural gas and crude would take care of whatever vulnerability remains, although it wouldn’t hurt to keep the Ayatollahs and the House of Saud in good humour.

It is when one talks about bombs , one realises that India has been too complacent. Over dependence on foreign origin weapons, married to a painfully slow procurement procedure has left the Indian armed forces asking for a lot
. A country that reached the Moon and Mars struggled for 3 decades to build it’s own combat aircraft is a paradox not many would understand.That to be a credible military power, one has to have a capable and cohesive military industrial complex – is a an understatement. The spadework done by DRDO , HAL , OFB and other institutions present a much heartening picture and would keep India in possession of cutting edge military hardware in a few years from now.The emergence of , and interest evinced by the private sector would ensure much needed efficiency and create an entire ecosystem of vendors essential for a military industrial complex. India needs to leverage its geo-strategic alliances to obtain and then indigenously develop critical military know-how pertaining to AI and other disruptive modalities of modern warfare. Billions in your wallet is a sine qua non for each of these things to happen is a fact that needs attention here- Make your bombs while you mint your billions.We need to showcase our commitment to protect IP rights and ability to forge partnerships in order to emerge as a hub of global defence manufacturing thereby enabling us to be a key supplier of defence equipment and significantly elevating India’s geo strategic profile.

A solid and sure supply of the terrific trio of billions , barrel and bombs would grant India essential leverage when deals are being cut at the high table and pawns moved on the global chessboard.