RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA : A MILITARIZING PARTNERSHIP

The consequences of the three-year-old Russia-Ukraine (West) war have polarised the global landscape in unprecedented ways. Chase for new partners and keeping the flock together by major powers bilaterally, regionally and mini-laterally and pluri-laterally is easily discernible. While all such enterprise may not be directly in confrontation with some others, the geopolitical and geo economic fault lines have the capacity to create a multiplier effect and impact on the emerging global order. Russia – North Korea partnership is one such matrix which has created some flutter in Eurasia and the Western world since North Korea has been somewhat of an unknown, reclusive yet aggressive actor in the North Asian context now branching out into the Eurasian landscape alongside Russia. Given its missile and nuclear capabilities and the strong and ever so ready armed forces Pyong Yang does give jitters to the regional adversaries including their benefactors. Pervasive western sanctions have neither deterred Russia nor the North Koreans. On the other hand, it appears to have strengthened their resolve to counter the western designs.

Recently, the reports emerged that some 3000-10000 North Korean soldiers were dispatched to Russia for training and later reportedly being deployed on the front lines including in Kursk -the Russian region where Ukrainian military for the first time made a strategic ingress into the Russian territory. Russians have recovered from this shock but the shortages of manpower and soldiers is a major problem and a stark reality in the graying West including Russia. Expanding and prolonging wars make the challenge even more difficult. Hence, one hears the news of recruitment of Africans, Central Asians and even Indians and Nepalis and now the North Koreans let alone from the western countries on behalf of the Ukrainians. Many of the foreign citizens are reportedly fighting on both sides.

As the western world and Ukrainians will call them a ‘fair game’ a certain element of fierceness and uncertainty on the impact this could have on the outcome of the war and geostrategic contestation is a matter of unremitting debate. It is also possible to surmise that the outcome of the Russia -Ukraine war, unless it expands beyond, will possibly lead to the defined contours of the Cold War 2.0. As such a new grouping like CIRN (China, Iran, Russia and North Korea), which have overt adversarial relationship with the USA and most of West let alone the already existing bilateral engagements among each of them, could be a much stronger challenge for the declining western institutions and their capabilities.

South Korean Spy Chief, keeping a close watch on their twin and the adversary, claimed that 3000 North Korean troops were in Russia and training there to be deployed in the war against Ukraine. Numbers kept on moving when Pentagon and US State Department corroborated the intel and the information raising concerns and pointing out the challenges that the Russians were facing in their war with Ukraine. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh averred that the North Korean soldiers were believed to be heading for the border region of Kursk, where Moscow recently suffered defeats and has been struggling to push back Ukrainian troops. The Nato chief also claimed that the North Korean deployment represents “a significant escalation” in Pyongyang’s involvement in the conflict and “a dangerous expansion of Russia’s war”. US President Joe Biden also joined the chorus, calling the deployment “very dangerous”. Likewise, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also pitched in ‘The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security.” An alarmed President Zelensky conferred with the South Korean leaders who are the new actors in the Eurasian war as South Korea may reportedly deploy military intelligence personnel to Ukraine. The deployment would be to monitor North Korean troops fighting for Russia according to Yonhap news agency, every action had a reaction even if it may defy Newton’s third law of equal and opposite.
Russia and North Korea have strategic collaboration and ties since the Korean war post-World War II when Soviet Union liberated the Koreas from Japan along the 38th parallel with North Korean under the Soviet influence and South Korea with the US- a front of the Cold War when the 1961 DPRK-Soviet Union Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance became an important vehicle of cooperation and friendship between the two countries. The relationship has its low when in 2012, after North Korea declared itself as nuclear weapon state, Moscow joined rest of the West to impose sanctions on Pyongyang. But Russia understood the strategic calculus which has been further honed up during the ongoing war with Ukraine which it terms as western proxy war. In September 2023, Kim was welcomed by Putin with a red carpet and great bonhomie when Pyongyang endorsed Kremlin’s “sacred struggle” against Ukraine and a “band of evil,” i.e. the West. Later, it was upgraded especially after President Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June this year when a “new Partnership” and a “Mutual Defence” agreement was signed. South Korean defense officials have said that since August 2023, North Korea has sent more than 13,000 shipping containers of artillery rounds, anti-tank rockets and KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia which have been denied by both sides.

Russia and Noth Korea, in recent years, have expanded their partnership including the military equipment and technology. President Putin’s visit to Pyongyang was consequential in many ways which was preceded by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ‘s visit to Far East of Russia during which close discussions were held between the two leaders and which did raise some eyebrows among their detractors. China does not seem very happy with the troop deployment by Pyongyang which seems to be getting closer to Moscow even though Sino-Russian ties are said to be a ‘No limits’ partnership. But there are no free lunches in the domain of diplomacy hence the observers are trying to dive deep into the quid pro quo that Moscow will offer in return. John Kirby, the White House spokesperson surmised ‘that there was plenty that Russia could do to help Mr. Kim: “That’s what’s so concerning to us.” Bigger worry for them is the expansion and deepening of security and defence relationship in missiles. Nuclear and other critical technologies that Moscow could share with Pyongyang. As these developments were going on North Korea’s Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui also visited Moscow, which was being read as possibility of more troops, if needed.

However, Kim’s calculations might have its own complexity depending on the body bags they receive as the Americans also called them a fair game. Taking a step further, Washington would not impose any fresh limits on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons, if North Korea entered the fight. This could lead to further escalation of the war. Meanwhile, calling the cooperation between the two countries in accordance with the International Law, Putin refused to divulge any details dismissing the deployment concerns as a bilateral matter. He reiterated in his speech at BRICS Summit in Kazan, “Our adversaries make no secret of their goal to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, but I will say directly: These are illusionary calculations, made by those who do not know Russia’s history.” As for the North Korean troops’ deployment he was categorical “When we have to decide something, we will decide… but it is our sovereign decision whether we will apply it, whether we will not, whether we need it, –This is our business.” Be that as it may but these developments do not augur well for an early conclusion of a ceasefire or constructive steps towards ending the war.

Would the deterrence suffice remains to be seen!