INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY IN 2024: MANY SUCCESSES, A FEW HICCUPS

Introduction

2024 has been a tumultuous year. Many totally unanticipated events took place during the year. Wars that started some time ago have continued unabated. 2024 was also a year of elections in which more than 60 countries went to the polls. Several of them threw up unexpected results. Many results were seen as a wave against incumbency. Global uncertainty continues without any indication as to what the final complexion of the global economic, strategic and security architecture is going to be.

In the background of such a scenario, it would be useful to make an assessment of how India has conducted its foreign policy and how it has been able to safeguard and promote its security and economic interests in 2024.

Some Milestones

Re-election of the NDA government under the leadership of PM Modi provided certainty and predictability in the continuation of the bold, assertive and principled foreign policy by India over the coming five years. Renomination of Dr S Jaishankar as the External Affairs Minister gave confidence to India’s partners and friends that India will continue to actively pursue the policy of multi-alignment, Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam and Vishwa Bandhu that it has pursued for the last ten years.

Relations with the US and Quad

Possibly the most significant event on the Indian foreign policy firmament was the bilateral visit by PM Modi to Washington DC in September 2024 at the invitation of President Joe Biden. The 4^th in-person, and 6^th overall, Summit meeting of the Quad countries also took place in Wilmington, Delaware, the hometown of President Biden, during the visit. These meetings as well as the bilateral interactions with the Japanese and Australian PMs on the side-lines of the Quad meeting went a long way to further expand the strategic ties between the four partner countries. It would be recalled that it was India’s turn to host the Quad Summit in 2024.

It however became clear around the middle of the year that because of Biden’s pre-occupation with the ongoing US presidential election, it would not be possible for him to travel to India for the Quad Summit. It was mutually agreed that India would switch places with the US and would, instead of 2024, host the Summit next year in 2025. This flexibility in hosting the Summit sent out a clear message to naysayers that the determination of the Quad partners to further intensify collaboration on the Quad platform was strong and enduring. More robust Statements on ensuring the freedom of navigation and over flights in the Indo-Pacific as well as maintaining a free, open, peaceful and secure Indo-Pacific were issued by the four leaders at the Summit. This demonstrated their commitment to ensure the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region and to further enlarge the expanse of the Quad to serve as a ‘’Force for Global Good’’ in the Indo-Pacific region.

The year also witnessed the election of the US President in November 2024. Notwithstanding the polls before the election signalling that the race would be a tight one, Donald Trump won convincingly and emphatically, not only in the number of Electoral College votes he received but also, unlike in 2016, in the popular votes he garnered as well. The US election result sent a wave of nervousness amongst several significant powers in the world including China, Europe, Mexico, Canada, Iran, Ukraine, some allies of the US in Asia, and others. From Trump’s initial pronouncements it is clear that his nominees for the top positions are his loyalists and principally China, Russia and Pakistan hawks. Most of them are well disposed towards India.

PM Modi was one of the first world leaders to call up Trump and congratulate him on his historic victory. In a message on X on 6^th December 2024, the day after the elections, PM Modi wrote: ‘’ Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.’’ After his conversation with Trump the same day, PM Modi took to X again to say: ‘’Had a great conversation with my friend, President @realDonaldTrump, congratulating him on his spectacular victory. Looking forward to working closely together once again to further strengthen India-US relations across technology, defence, energy, space and several other sectors.’’

Because of the huge convergence of strategic interests between the two countries in the area of geo-politics, trade, commerce, industry, technology, defence as well as the presence of a large, prosperous and influential Indian diaspora in the US which acts as a living bridge between the two countries, as well as the positive chemistry and rapport between PM Modi and President-elect Trump, India is looking forward to Trump 2.0 with confidence, hope and expectation. India is cognizant of the fact that trade and tariffs could pose a challenge, but it is confident that it will be able to handle these hiccups effectively and skilfully as they emerge.

Ties with Russia

The other significant development during the year was PM’s stand-alone visit to Russia in July 2024 to take part in the Annual Summit between the two countries. This was the first visit by PM Modi to Moscow after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In late August, he travelled to Ukraine, taking the standard 10-hour train journey to-and-fro from Warsaw to Kiev and back. India has refused to criticise Russia for its attack on Ukraine and has significantly enhanced its off take of discounted oil from Russia making it the largest crude exporter to India. While denying that India was working on a Peace Plan or that it was keen to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, India has made it clear that it will act as an honest and trustworthy messenger communicating the positions of the two countries to each other. As the momentum to end the conflict and establish peace between the two countries grows with Trump’s assumption of power in the US, India could play a useful role in promoting understanding between the two countries.

PM Modi travelled to Russia once again to participate in the BRICS Summit in Kazan in October 2024. India was able to maintain that it is not a supporter of de-dollarization but would continue to promote trading in national currencies, rather than working towards a common BRICS currency. India also travelled to Apulia, Italy in June 2024 at the invitation of the Italian PM Giorgia Meloni to participate in the G7 Summit immediately soon after he assumed office. PM Modi has been a regular invitee to all G7 Summits over the last several years. All these engagements and visits further emphasised India’s policies of Strategic Autonomy, Multi-Alignment and its position of a Vishva Bandhu to the world.

Engaging China

Just before PM Modi’s travel to Kazan, Russia for the BRICS Summit in October 2024, it was announced that after several meetings between the Army Commanders and diplomats of the two sides over the last four years, India and China agreed to reverting to the situation that prevailed before April 2020 regarding restoration of patrolling in the final two outstanding areas of Depsang and Demchok. This allowed the first structured meeting between PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the side-lines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan on 23^rd October 2024. This is seen as a small but significant movement in relations between India and China. The huge trust deficit in India about Chinese intentions still prevails and it will be some time before the bilateral ties start normalising.

Partnering the Global South

Taking forward its role as the Voice of the Global South (VOGS) under the aegis of which India had organised two virtual Summits during its Presidency of the G20 last year, India organised a third virtual VOGS Summit in August 2024 with the overarching theme, “An Empowered Global South for a Sustainable Future”. PM Modi hosted the Inaugural Leaders’ Session which was followed by 10 Ministerial sessions. The Summit witnessed the participation of 173 dignitaries from 123 countries from across the Global South, including 21 HOS/G, 34 Foreign Ministers and 118 Ministers and Vice Ministers. With the participation of countries representing over 60% of the world’s population, the Summit reinforced the centrality of the Global South in India’s collective pursuit of a future that is inclusive for all. Leaders and Ministers expressed confidence that the ideas and best practices shared among participating countries would lead to greater empowerment of the Global South, and a sustainable future for the world.

The Neighbourhood: Immediate and Extended

Another positive feature in the pursuit of bilateral ties was the visit by the Sri Lankan President Anura Kumar Dissanayake (AKD) to India from December 15-17, 2024. This was his first visit after decisively winning the Presidential and Parliamentary elections in August and November this year demonstrating that Sri Lanka attaches the highest importance to its political, strategic, security, economic, cultural and people to people ties with India. It was an extremely substantive visit which took forward the bilateral ties to new heights. During his visit, AKD categorically announced that Sri Lanka will not allow its territory to be used in any manner inimical to the security of India.

Relations with Maldives faced considerable stress with the call of ‘’India Out’’ by the incoming President Mohamed Muizzu during his election campaign in November 2023. Several of his Ministers made uncalled for remarks against India and PM Modi early in the year. Demonstrating its strategic patience as also in its capacity as the larger country and economy, India invited Muizzu, along with several other neighboring leaders, to the swearing in ceremony of PM Modi after being elected to a successive Third Term. Muizzu had visited seven other countries including Turkey, China etc. before his visit to India in June 2024. Muizzu again visited India on a bilateral State visit in October 2024 when he invited PM Modi on a State visit to Maldives next year. Muizzu termed India as a ‘’valued partner’’, expressed gratitude to the Indian government for offering a bailout to help avert a debt crisis, and lauded India as the “first responder” that has “stood by the Maldives during our times of need.” Stabilisation and normalization of relations with Maldives, an important neighbor and maritime partner, is a demonstrable success of India’s ‘’Neighbourhood First’’ and ‘’Sagar’’ Policies.

The Special Relations with Bhutan witnessed due attention being paid to the ties through PM Modi’s visit in March 2024 and visits of the Bhutanese King and PM to India in December and March 2024 respectively.

Relations with the ASEAN got a boost with PM Modi’s visits to Laos for the East Asia Summit, Brunei and Singapore, as well as incoming visits by PMs of Malaysia and Vietnam. West Asia continued to be a focus of attention with visits by PM Modi to UAE and Qatar in February 2024, and of Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi to India in September 2024.

Some Distant Shores

PM Modi’s visit to Guyana and meetings with the Caribbean leaders, several of who decorated PM Modi with their countries’ highest awards, provided a significant impetus to our ties with a region which in the past has not received adequate attention because of its geographical distance from India.

India’s ties with Europe saw a marked uptick with the visits of PM Modi to Poland and Austria, and visits of French President Emmanuel Macron as the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day on January 26, 2024, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez and the Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis to India.

The Hiccups

The first hiccup in bilateral ties surfaced with Canada when its PM Justin Trudeau made serious allegations against India of its involvement in the killing of a Canadian Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Nijjar in June 2023. He did not furnish any evidence to substantiate his wild and untenable charges. The Canadian authorities further compounded their folly by alleging that even the Indian High Commissioner and several Indian diplomats in Canada were involved in carrying out repressive actions against Indian dissidents in Canada. India strongly repudiated these charges, withdrew its HC and 5 other diplomats from its High Commission in Ottawa and expelled the Canadian Acting HC and 5 other diplomats. Relations between the two countries are at their lowest ebb ever. India has charged that the Trudeau Government’s support for extremism, violence and separatism against India stems from its vote bank politics.

The second roadblock was the coup in Bangladesh on August 5, resulting in PM Sheikh Hasina’s flight from Dhaka to India in the face of vicious student violence and protests. The ostensible cause was an anti-quota stir against the Hasina government, but subsequent events demonstrated that it was not a spontaneous, organic student uprising but supported by some external forces. The interim government of Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the Peace Nobel Laureate, who took over as the Chief Adviser has not been able to establish peace and security, stabilise the economy or provide definite dates for the elections, although Dr. Yunus has mentioned that they could be held in end 2025/beginning 2026 if all the electoral reforms are completed.

Following Hasina’s departure, a series of communal attacks have occurred, particularly targeting Hindus in Bangladesh. These incidents included attacks on temples, houses, and shops belonging to minority communities, as well as looting and murder across several districts in the country. PM Modi strongly raised the issue of protection and security of all Hindus and minorities in Bangladesh with the Chief Adviser. Dr Yunus assured protection, safety and security of Hindus and all minorities in Bangladesh. So far these have proved to be mere words. Yunus and his officials have stated that the media reports of persecution of minorities are highly exaggerated. This has further encouraged the perpetrators to continue their violent actions with impunity.

During his visit to Bangladesh on 9th December, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri informed all his interlocutors “that India desires a positive, constructive, and mutually beneficial relationship with Bangladesh.’’ He referred to the ‘’mutually beneficial engagement we have on a whole set of issues ranging from trade, commerce, connectivity, power, water and energy, development cooperation, consular cooperation, and cultural cooperation.’’

Developments over the last more than four months pose a serious challenge for India. India has thus far followed a calibrated approach of sending out a clear message to Bangladesh to be mindful of India’s security interests and protect the lives and welfare of its Hindu and other minorities. It is sincerely hoped that Bangladesh will soon realise what is in its best interest and work pro-actively to restore ties with India which have suffered exceptionally since August 2024.

Conclusion

In 2024 the world has continued to face the knock-on effects of COVID-19, armed conflicts, and the challenges of climate change and food and energy insecurities. These are in addition to the continued threats posed by terrorism, extremism and separatism to the world, the emergence of new technology-related social and economic challenges, and the failure of global governance and financial institutions set up in the last century to respond to the challenges of the 21st century. In this period of turmoil and turbulence India has continued to pursue a confident and assertive foreign policy and reached out to all regions of the world with the objective of “engaging America, managing China, cultivating Europe, reassuring Russia, bringing Japan into play, drawing neighbors in, extending the neighborhood and expanding traditional constituencies of support.” India’s commitment to share its experiences and capabilities with the world, particularly partner countries of the Global South, amplified its role as ‘’Vishwa Bandhu’’ in 2024.