HOW WOULD INDIA NAVIGATE THE CHAOTIC NEXT DECADE

As the excitement surrounding Donald Trump’s election as the 47th president of the United States begins to fade, it’s time to analyse the future trajectory of India over the next decade, which I refer to as a chaotic decade.
Back in 2018, I predicted in a series of articles that starting in 2025, the stage would be set for a turbulent future, based on emerging trends and threats. Today, I am more convinced than ever about the direction in which the world is heading.

Why it would be a chaotic world?

The world has seldom been as unstable as it is today, with numerous active and potential conflict zones. These include Palestine, Syria, Yemen, the Red Sea, the Sahel, the DRC, Ukraine, Myanmar, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Iran-Israel tensions, U.S.-China competition, territorial disputes between the Philippines-China, Indonesia-China, Japan-China, India-China, India-Pakistan, Afghanistan-Pakistan, and finally, the distrust between Russia and NATO.
These conflicts are likely to evolve into multi-dimensional confrontations. Future wars will not only be kinetic but may also involve economic, cyber, spatial, guerrilla, asymmetric, hybrid wars, or a combination of these forms.

There is a widespread belief that the decline of the U.S. combined with the rise of China is leading to a situation known as the ‘Thucydides Trap.’ However, I would argue that this situation is more closely linked to the decline of Russia (formerly the USSR) and the emergence of China. I believe that by 2035, the U.S. will continue to lead the world across various dimensions. According to 81% of the world’s leading experts, the U.S. is expected to remain the major world power, while 63% believe it will be the technological leader and 52% project it will maintain a significant economic presence in the coming decade. This strongly indicates that the U.S. is firmly entrenched in its position as the world leader, with China emerging as a promising contender eager to establish itself.

Two prominent dates that could shape the world

Xi Jinping once told party workers that a chaotic world suits China’s rise, indicating that it is China that will disrupt the established order. The Chinese leaders have indicated two target dates: August 1, 2027 (the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army) and October 1, 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China). According to Chinese leaders and media, these dates play a vital role in their ambitious plans for global dominance.

The PLA had set a goal for 2020 to achieve informationised warfare and mechanisation targets. These targets have likely been accomplished. The target for 2027 is new; initially, the PLA aimed for the intelligentisation of its forces by 2035. However, Xi Jinping has advanced that deadline to 2027, describing it as “a fight in the near term.” CIA Director William Burns has publicly confirmed that Xi has ordered the PLA to be prepared for potential reunification with Taiwan by 2027. The objective for 2049 is to develop the PLA into a “world-class” military capable of deploying forces across all domains globally, managing crises, deterring adversaries, and winning wars to protect China’s interests.

What would restrain Xi Jinping

Despite becoming a force to reckon with, PLA faces plenty of shortcomings. Some of them are:

• PLA’s lack of innovative leaders who fully understand intelligentised and informationised concepts.
• Rampant corruption within the military establishment: For example, the Chinese Rocket Force deployed missiles filled with water instead of fuel, among other serious deficiencies leading to the dismissal of over a dozen senior military officers, including the defence minister, Li Shangfu in January 2024.
• Significant training deficiencies: PLAAF’s command and control system has made pilots overly reliant on guidance from command centres, in addition to other serious shortcomings.
• Sinking of Zhou-class nuclear-powered attack submarine in June 2024 in Wuchang Shipyard underscores the serious issues in the PLAN’s training and standard operating procedures (SOP).
• PLA’s lack of combat experience (peace disease): Fought the last war over four decades ago in Vietnam, where they were a distant third.

What would make Xi Jinping a dangerous man

While military deficiencies restrain Xi, the following economic difficulties may push him to take drastic steps:
• Average growth rate since 1990: over 9%.
• Erratic GDP growth since the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic: 2019 – 5.9%, 2020 – 2.2%, 2021 – 8.4%, 2022 – 2.9%, 2023 – 5.2%
• China overtakes the US economy by 2020, then 2028, and later by 2030.
• Citibank revised this estimate to 2035.
• Japan Centre for Economic Research and economist Mohamed El-Erian, President, Queens’ College, Cambridge: China may never overtake the US economy.
• London’s Centre for Economics and Business Research estimates China will be the world’s largest economy for 21 years. The US will reclaim its position in 2057. Eventually, India will surpass the US around 2081.
• Demographic changes: By 2035 – Population declines to 1.39 billion, above 60 years of age – 32.7%, above 65 years of age – 25.1%
• Diver to the Chinese economy, the $8.4 trillion real estate sector (48% of the economy) collapsed.
• Private sector technology giants collectively lost over $1 trillion since the government’s crackdown.
• Youth unemployment – 18.8%.
• 2025, a record 12.22 million university graduates expected to enter the job market. 2024 only 55.5% of graduates secured placements.
• The debt-to-GDP ratio – 288%
• Local governments stimulus – $1.4 trillion
• Manufacturing overcapacity has positioned China similar to Japan in 1985.

Xi Jinping appears to prioritise political survival over economic prosperity. Since his reign began, he has purged over a million government officials, generals, and ministers—these purges were often reactions to perceived disloyalty rather than a response to the endemic corruption that affects China. As a result, very few officials are willing to provide an honest assessment of the situation. The recently concluded ‘Third Plenum’ received 25% fewer suggestions than in 2013, with only 12% of them accepted.

Overall, the situation echoes the ‘Great Leap Forward’ of 1958 when officials acted as “yes men” to Mao, fabricating production numbers to meet unattainable targets. In the past decade, although official economic statistics have decreased, they have consistently reported figures that are approximately 2% higher than the actual numbers. The current landscape is ripe for a significant escalation, as wars can offer various advantages, including boosting GDP and distracting citizens under the flag of nationalism.

The Game Plan

Two conflict zones are crucial for advancing China’s objectives: Israel-Iran and Russia-Ukraine. If China can persuade Russia to prolong the ongoing war by keeping it below a critical threshold, it gains a twofold advantage. First, Russia, a regional threat, would continue to weaken. Second, the Western military apparatus would remain occupied in these regions. The potential for a conflict between Israel and Iran would keep the US Carrier Strike Groups (CSG) engaged in the Middle East. This scenario would be ideal for China, allowing it greater freedom to operate in the East and South China Seas.

As Trump promises to quickly resolve the Russia-Ukraine crisis, his victory places pressure on Xi to act decisively regarding his strategic agenda. This agenda was articulated in a 2013 article published by Wen Wei Po, a Hong Kong daily closely associated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The article outlined “The Six Wars to Be Fought by China in the Next 50 Years.” The first three wars were:
1. 2020-2025: Unification of Taiwan
2. 2025-2030: Reconquest of the Spratly Islands
3. 2035-2040: Reconquest of Arunachal Pradesh

Xi will aggressively pursue his vision of six wars. Although China has been testing Taiwan, a full-scale invasion in the next year seems improbable. Thus, it may be the case that goals regarding Taiwan and dominance in the South China Sea have been consolidated with a target range of 2025-2035 in mind.

How would India navigate the chaotic decade

India’s interest primarily lies in China’s third potential conflict, but the first two wars also have significant implications for the country. It is possible that Xi Jinping recognized the PLA was ill-prepared for the first war in 2020, prompting a shift in focus toward a third war with India.

The prolonged stalemate along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), since 2020, led to a disengagement agreement between India and China in October 2024. Shortly after, Indian Prime Minister Modi met with Xi on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia. Xi’s body language during this meeting revealed his unhappiness and unease with the situation. One may question whether China withdrew from the LAC to better prepare for the first and second wars anticipated to start in 2025. If this is the case, it again suggests that the world is heading toward a turbulent decade.

Throughout this period, India has prudently refrained from engaging in a war with China. However, Indian leadership must recognize that there remains unfinished business with China. Consequently, India should prepare for several scenarios:

• What will be India’s response if China attempts to unify Taiwan or reclaim the Spratly Islands? Will India steer clear of involvement, or will it take advantage of the situation to recover the lost territory of Aksai Chin?
• In all likelihood, an expanded conflict could see the involvement of Russia and Iran. Given India’s good relations with both nations, how should India position itself in such a scenario?
• What is India’s plan if, after a stalemate with coalition forces, China once again redirects its attention toward India?
• The clear-cut, Chinese and American hand in fostering instability within India (especially the Northeast) and around India (Bangladesh and Myanmar) would further intensify. How would India respond to this interference?

A conflict in East Asia has significant consequences for India. Approximately 55% of Indian trade passes through the South China Sea, making the security of India’s trade routes a crucial responsibility. This situation could ultimately pull India into the conflict.
Even China’s 64% of trade relies on sea routes; however, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is quickly changing that dynamic. This highlights two important aspects: first, the BRI is not designed for the benefit of host nations but rather as a strategic preparation by China for potential future challenges. Second, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TCITR) is the flagship project of the BRI ahead of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Both projects traverse Xinjiang, a region marked by disruption, which explains China’s anxiety and urgency to secure the area by any means necessary. Additionally, CPEC has a notable vulnerability as it runs through Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK).

Consequently, India emerges as a key player in undermining both projects given its strategic location, capabilities, and reach. Both the United States and China recognise these factors, and both have made similar miscalculations in their dealings with India. China attempted to subjugate India militarily, while the United States has restricted India through the denial of over four dozen agreements and memoranda, leaving only two in place.

Despite facing numerous challenges, Indian leadership remained steadfast, resulting in China backing down and experiencing humiliation. Regardless of Trump or no Trump, the United States will likely learn a similar lesson; they must acknowledge India’s capabilities if they wish to engage constructively. For India, now is the time to enhance its capacities and capabilities. The successful test of a long-range hypersonic missile on November 16, along with the planned increase in defence spending of $415.9 billion between 2025 and 2029, among other initiatives, highlights that India is preparing for the chaotic decade ahead.