Ring of Conflict Zones Around India – Clear and Present Danger

Last year, I discussed how India’s neighbouring countries were increasingly burdened by debt, which I referred to as the ‘Ring of Debt.’ I also predicted that after this phase, anti-India forces would move into the ‘transition phase,’ followed by the ‘dominance phase.’ With Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh losing power, the last stronghold has been captured. Now, every neighbouring country of India is, to some extent, a conflict zone or in the orbit of a disruptive entity. Why is this happening?

In his 2010 book, “Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power,” Robert D. Kaplan emphasizes the increasing importance of South Asia in shaping global power dynamics in the 21st century. Today, 80% of the world’s oil & gas, 40% of the world’s trade, and $900 billion worth of Chinese cargo pass through the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Owing to its strategic geographical location, India holds a key position as the dominant player in the IOR. Both the US and China seek to influence India to align with their respective interests, leading to a complex and conflicting situation as India aims to assert its independent growth trajectory.

The Methodology

This conflict of interest and desire to control India has given rise to a ring of conflict zones around India. Before delving into how India should deal with these threats, let us examine the full methodology. It could be divided into various phases. The target country, which in this case is India, faces the following:
• Masquerading
• Utter Chaos
• Subjugation
The countries surrounding the target country India go through the following phases:
• Charm Phase
• Debt & Dependence Phase
• Transition Phase
• Dominance Phase
The phase of masquerading is similar to the charm phase. Major powers pretending to be friendly nations put on a public show of friendliness. However, behind the scenes, deceit and manipulation take place. India was being deceived, while the surrounding countries were reaping the benefits. In this context, China initially pretended to be friendly with the slogan “Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai” (Indian and Chinese are brothers), but under Xi Jinping’s leadership, it revealed its aggressive intentions. On the other hand, the USA was subtly convincing India with statements like, “We consider the US-India relationship to be the most important in the world,” along with promises of technology transfer and signing various unattainable agreements.

It’s important to remember that when one phase ends, the next phase doesn’t necessarily end. Therefore, while the “Utter Chaos” phase was beginning, the “masquerading” phase was still ongoing. “Utter Chaos” is a phase in which many targeted nations find themselves ensnared in a web of instability. India began experiencing this phase over a decade ago.

During this phase, there is a significant increase in demonstrations, separatist movements, attacks on the general public (such as Maoist attacks or staged attacks on minorities), and riots. Reforms tend to backfire, positive developments are dismissed, and weaknesses are highlighted on the international stage. Individuals in high-ranking positions are ridiculed and their sincerity is questioned. Another key objective of this phase is to hinder the advancement of the science and technology community (for example, 11 Indian nuclear scientists suffered suspicious deaths between 2009 and 2013).

The Anna Hazare demonstrations paralyzed Delhi and the Indian National Congress government in 2011, while events such as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the National Register of Citizens (NRC), farmer’s protests, and the Delhi riots had a similar effect on Delhi and the BJP government between 2019 and 2021. External powers may initiate or support movements and assess the potential to intervene at a later stage. They provide financial aid, spread internal disinformation, and engage in external propaganda using reputable publications.

During the same period, India’s neighbouring nations experienced ‘debt and dependence phases. According to a 2019 report from the Socio-Economic Planning Science, South Asian countries received a whopping $8.9 trillion in official development assistance between 2011 and 2016. USAID provided humanitarian and development aid from 2008 to 2017, with Pakistan receiving $1.3 billion, Afghanistan $1.03 billion, Sri Lanka $133 million, Nepal $115 million, and Bangladesh $57 million. Pakistan was the largest recipient of US aid, receiving between $700 million to $1.4 billion annually. Bangladesh was the second-highest recipient until 2008, after which Afghanistan took its place. Whether the shift is related to the emergence of Sheikh Hasina as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh in 2009, cannot be confirmed.
As far as China is concerned, it doesn’t believe much in aid and assistance. That is the reason not much data in that regard is available. A report by Taylor and Francis show that China’s worldwide aid and interest-free loans stood at $5.2 billion in 2015 increasing to $6.4 billion in 2019 and again declining to $5.0 billion in 2020.

At the same time, Pakistan’s total external debt owed to China rapidly swelled from $7.6 billion in 2016 to $26.5 billion in 2022, Sri Lanka from $4.6 billion to $8.8 billion, Bangladesh from $0.97 billion to $6 billion, Maldives from $0.3 billion to $1.2 billion and Nepal from $0.07 billion to $0.26 billion. Pakistan’s interest payments will form 57% of the country’s revenue in 2024, Sri Lanka 54%, and Bangladesh 31.5%. Pakistan owes over 72% of its external debt to China, Maldives 68%, Sri Lanka 57%, Nepal 27%, and Bangladesh 24%. Servicing the interest is beyond the capacity of these nations. Therefore, their fate is at the mercy of China.
The debt and dependence phase leads to the transition phase. The transition phase is akin to the chaos phase. In this phase, a regime change takes place to install a suitable candidate. Pakistan saw from Shehbaz Sharif to Imran Khan and again back to Shehbaz Sharif. Nepal saw its transition phase much earlier (2001) when King Birendra Bir Bikram Shah and his family were systematically murdered, and a Maoist government was established. The Maldives saw a similar tussle between Abdulla Yameen Ibrahim Solih to Mohamed Muizzu. In Sri Lanka rise and fall of the Rajapaksa clan and in Bangladesh rise and fall of Sheikh Hasina are another classic example.

The Subjugation and Dominance Phases

The last general elections in India saw Narendra Modi’s powers diminished. I had warned about this scenario over a year ago and that was followed by an analysis post-election: China’s 2024 Threat To Indian Democracy and Curious Case of Western Deep State and the Indian Elections.

In this phase, meeting and influencing dissidents, opposition, and regional leaders will be a regular occurrence to provoke the current administration. Leading this strategy in India is US Consul General Jennifer Larson. Her meetings with various Indian leaders, especially Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi (AIMIM), Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy, and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu, have brought forth many conspiracy theories. Regularly targeting business houses and regulators believed to be aligned with the ruling party will be a common practice. The recent targeting of the Adani Group and Madhabi Puri Buch, the chief of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), by the US-based investment firm Hindenburg Research, is part of the same strategy.

After the Indian general elections in early June 2024, a high-level US congressional delegation led by Michael McCaul, which included Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, visited India to meet with the Dalai Lama. It was unusual for such a high-profile American visit to Dharamshala, as India had traditionally avoided such visits to prevent tension with China. Notably, the Dalai Lama was scheduled for knee surgery in the US at the end of June, so a meeting in the US would have been more convenient. This visit raised questions about whether it was intended to send a specific message.

It was all part of the ‘Subjugation phase’ where one would see hectic diplomatic activities in and around India by both China and the US. The US Ambassador to Pakistan, Donald Blome, made regular visits to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK), while the Chinese Ambassador to Nepal, Chen Song, mocked India’s efforts during the search and rescue operation to locate two missing passenger buses in the Trishuli River. These actions are just the beginning of a long-term strategy.

After the US diplomat’s visit to the Dalai Lama, there were behind-the-scenes developments. Starting in July, the US began to delay the delivery of the highly anticipated and important GE F-404 engines for India’s indigenous fighter Tejas Mk1A. In August, several Indian publications reported that the Indian government planned to name places in Tibet in tit-for-tat action, but this did not materialize.

In July, Modi did not attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Kazakhstan. Was that because of pressure from the US, or was it an indicator of more underlying tensions between India and China than what is publicly known? It is evident that the aggression by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on the border was not the sole point of friction with India.

In August, Indian Prime Minister Modi made a sudden visit to Russia despite criticism from the West. The purpose of the visit was unclear. Some speculated that it was meant to express dissatisfaction with Western interference in Indian affairs. While publicly it seemed that the visit didn’t result in anything significant, certain developments after the visit suggested otherwise.

Following the visit, Indian industries began to express concerns that the nonavailability of Chinese expertise would hamper many critical industries. Previously, the Indian government had been slow in issuing visas to Chinese nationals, in line with the anti-China sentiment in India. It remains unclear whether India reached an understanding with Russia, succumbed to pressure from China, or was simply countering the US.

Avoiding the Enemy’s Designs

Today, every country in India’s neighbourhood is in a state of conflict, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. India has been able to protect Bhutan to some extent. India has also been skilful in avoiding falling into any traps and disrupting the enemy’s efforts to subjugate the country. But for how long?

If India has a weak central government that depends on allies, it may struggle to make tough decisions in the country’s best interest. In the past disruptive powers have taken advantage of such a situation for decades. The emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2014 put a stop to this free run. Therefore, both China and the US would be eager to find leaders and a government that is conducive to their interests.

The Way Forward

The principle of conflict suggests that if a country wants to avoid conflicts in its area of interest, it should take the conflicts to the enemy’s doorstep. However, this requires significant economic and military capacity, which India currently lacks. India has taken steps, such as supplying the Philippines with Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles and gifting a warship (INS Kirpan) to Vietnam, but these efforts are small compared to what China has achieved in India’s neighbourhood. Despite China’s impressive economic and military achievements, it also faces challenges in the American neighbourhood.

Nevertheless, India must avoid falling into the ‘Khwarezmian trap’ at all costs. The Khwarezmian empire consisted of present-day Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Iran. The empire’s diplomatic blunder in the 13th century led to its destruction and subjugation at the hands of Genghis Khan. The way forward for India is clear – it needs to focus on deft diplomacy and partnerships.

Over the millennia, foreign forces have sought to control the Indian subcontinent due to its location, rich and fertile land, and biggest of them all a huge market (25% of the world’s population). This time is no different. For India, a middle path that leans towards the US and the West, avoids war with China, forms stronger ties with Australia, France, Israel, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and the UAE, and keeps open communication with pariah states Iran and Russia is the only solution to ensure India’s uninterrupted rise. Untangling the complex web of relationships is a delicate and long-term challenge. In the short to medium-term, the goal should be to bring Bangladesh, Maldives, and Nepal into the Indian fold using shrewd diplomacy. Pakistan would remain a long-term challenge.