Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM* former Commander of Indian Army’s Srinagar Corps, focuses on trans-national and internal conflicts in Asia and the Middle East with particular emphasis on issues revolving around radical Islam. He is the Chancellor of Central University of Kashmir and speaks extensively at Indian and international institutions on a wide variety of subjects revolving around strategic affairs and leadership. He is presently a Member of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
Articles Lists
TERROR ON THE RAILWAY TRACKS: A BALOCH TRIGGER
It was waiting to happen. A big-ticket event revolving around a high-profile act of terror, is something one could have expected any time after the triggering of turbulence in the international order in 2025. Terrorists too like to show their place in the world’s pecking order of strategic thr
WILL DONALD TRUMP’S MAGIC WAND RESOLVE UKRAINE AND THE ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN ISSUES ?
In geopolitics the term ‘deep freeze’ is a common phenomenon. Festering issues often go into a state of procrastination by leaders or by circumstances. That is exactly what happened to the war in Ukraine over the last couple of months; the European winter was just incidental. The war had alrea
THE GLACIERS IN CONTENTION: SHOULD OUR STANCE CHANGE?
Having been there, done that, qualifies many of us to express opinion on tricky operational strategic issues. I lay claim to the fact that I am one of those who has written extensively on the Siachen Glacier complex and attempted to bring the several connected nuances to public notice. This includes
US POLICY TOWARDS IRAN UNDER TRUMP 2.0
When Donald Trump first came to power as President of the US in Jan 2017, it was clear that he would target Iran and work on regime change through a strategy of diplomacy and coercion without necessarily going militarily ballistic. That is exactly what he did. He withdrew the US from the Joint Co
THE SYRIAN MELTDOWN AND ITS STRATEGIC IMPACT
We have just witnessed the first order effects of the Syrian meltdown, with glee in the streets of Damascus, people rushing to the infamous Sednaya prison to locate many of their detained relatives and President Elect Donald Trump announcing a hands-off Syria policy. The second, third and subsequent
ABOUT TIME INDIAN SECURITY FORCES EMPLOYED FORCE MULTIPLIERS IN COUNTER TERRORIST OPERATIONS
While complimenting Northern Command and 16 Corps of the Indian Army for the splendid operations conducted in the Sundarbani-Akhnoor tract on October 28-29, 2024, I need to focus attention on an issue which has been seldom debated but has been hanging around the neck of the Indian Army like a millst
YAHYA SINWAR’S DEATH AND THE FUTURE OF THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST
The war initiated by the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel could theoretically end tomorrow once the means to fight run out and so also the will. Unlike the past when short wars characterised standoffs in the Middle East, this one is, however, going beyond the expected. Hamas built itself a
RATIONAL THINKING REVEALS IRAN’S CALIBRATED MISSILE OFFENSIVE MAY NOT EVOKE AN ISRAELI RESPONSE
Unlike the last time in April 2024 when Iran’s escalation of the conflict with Israel was only in name, and slow-moving drones and missiles had been fired at stray targets into Israeli territory, this time Iran appears to have moved its response to a higher level by several notches. The destructio
THE MIDDLE EAST : IS IT HEADING TOWARDS ANOTHER CATASTROPHIC WAR ?
With public attention focused on Prime Minister Modi’s visits to Poland, Ukraine and the US, only the peripheral events of the Middle East were finding their ways into the headlines. Understandable, simply because Ukraine has been going on longer and also because the Middle East is a quagmire for
PM MODI IN UKRAINE: A TIMELY VISIT AND AN IMAGE BOOST FOR INDIA
Anyone avidly following the war in Ukraine would realise that it is a futile war where termination is going to be a real challenge. It is a war of national egos of not just the contestants but a host of countries who seem to back it, some apparently quite reluctantly. Prime Minister Narendra Modi wa
BANGLADESH: DEVIL & THE DEEP SEA OPTIONS FOR INDIA
A perfectly stable government, only recently elected, with a history of 15 years of continuous rule, suddenly comes apart and its leader, the Prime Minister of the country has to virtually abdicate on the advice of her security staff and depart ignominiously in 45 minutes, is a scenario made for pol
TERROR SURGE J&K: NEXT LIKELY STEPS BY PAKISTAN’S DEEP STATE AND INDIA’S COUNTER
I received a surge of public interest in response to my recent analyses in the media on why Jammu has become the new Kashmir, in terms of frequency and intensity of terror strikes by Pakistan sponsored radical terrorist groups. They have even started carrying fancy names, such as Kashmir Tigers. Man
TEN POINTS FOR SECURING J&K IN THE RUN UP TO THE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS
Much has been analysed and written on why the recent near coordinated terror attacks in the Jammu region were executed with Pakistan sponsorship. The broad understanding reflects that they were designed to communicate Pakistan’s perceived relevance of its narratives in J&K. This is particularl
DEATH OF IRANIAN PRESIDENT EBRAHIM RAISI: DOES IT CHANGE ANY DYNAMICS?
For many it was surprising to see the amount of interest in the Indian media on the unfortunate passing of President Raisi of Iran along with his Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in a helicopter crash while returning from an inauguration ceremony of a cooperative dam constructed jointly w
ARE WE HEADED FOR POSITIVE TIMES IN THE SINO INDIAN RELATIONSHIP ?
“I hope and believe that through positive and constructive bilateral engagement at the diplomatic and military levels, we will be able to restore and sustain peace and tranquility in our borders,” said Prime Minister Modi recently in reference to a question on China and the India-China border di
INDIA’S PUSHBACK AGAINST CHINA : HOW RISK PRONE IS THIS GAMBLE? PART 2
From Part 1 Is the Indian push back that we have witnessed in the last few weeks, and serially discussed in several video discussions, sufficient in weight and content to convey a message to China? Is it a cautionary measure and will China take it as such? Or will China come hurtling down once ag
INDIA’S EMERGING PUSHBACK AGAINST CHINA: HOW RISK PRONE IS THIS GAMBLE?
By now the backdrop is clear and almost getting stale. Yet, it may be worth recalling the sincerity with which India recommenced its engagement with Xi Jinping’s China soon after the NDA government came to power in May 2014. It appeared that China too was reviewing its stance in the then emerging
MILITARY IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN : HOW FAR SHOULD WE GO IN OUR TRANSPARENCY ?
Some good and professional sounding analyses on the Indian Army’s organization and capability have recently found their way into the public domain; one could also consider some of these a little too professionally done, with obvious military advice of course. They are transparent and reveal the or
PAKISTAN’S ELECTIONS AND THE CHALLENGE ASIM MUNIR FACES
While all the counting and the conjectures on government formation go on, I draw the attention of my readership to the strategic fallout of the Pakistan election, and this is something you can expect in greater measure from my keyboard, as we progress in the next few months. It isn’t easy to draw
THE INCREASING TREND OF ‘NEAR WARS’ AND THEIR IMPACT ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Even as full-blown wars such as the ones between Russia and Ukraine, and between Israel and Hamas, rage without decisive results, there are many situations around the world which remain poised for war at the pull of a trigger. Strategists and academics call these by all kinds of romantic terms such
THE INDIAN ARMED FORCES IN MALDIVES: STORM IN A TEACUP
Nations deploy personnel from their armed forces in different neighbouring countries mostly for security and good will, that is if the politico-diplomatic relationship is cordial or something even better. Receiving nations do not become colonies of the providers simply because of having foreign sold
AUSTIN’S VISIT TO ISRAEL : ADVICE ON TRANSFORMING THE WAR IS SANE AND SAGE LIKE
When a man as experienced as Lloyd Austin talks about war and its strategic linkages the world needs to perk up and take note. Austin is not a political US Defence Secretary but a hard-core military one who has seen more hybrid war conditions and the resultant effects of those than what many can boa
THE CEASEFIRE IN GAZA : WHO IS LIKELY TO BENEFIT?
Customarily, ceasefire in intense conventional operations is rare. The party undertaking the offensive could hardly be keen to cause a break in the tempo of operations, where the time in which operations are to be completed is the crucial factor. The attacker usually employs the concept of simultane
J&K’S TACTICAL BATTLES: MISNOMERS AND NUANCES IN THE CURRENT TIMES PART 2 CAN THE HAMAS MODEL BE REPLICATED FOR CONFLICT RENEWAL
This is an article in continuation of the author’s Part 1 published in Chanakya Forum on 22 Sep 2023 A bold decision on 5th August 2019 removed J&K from the ambit of Article 370 and created a new governance model for the erstwhile state of J&K. Jammu and Kashmir regions remained togethe
CAN PAKISTAN AND ITS PROXIES DO A HAMAS-LIKE OPERATION IN INDIA?
For many years there have been comparisons between the situations in West Asia in terms of the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the proxy war existing in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). Both regions have had bouts of all out conventional war and then long festering hybrid war situations. Pakistan conti
ISRAEL PALESTINIAN WAR : ANOTHER CONFLICT ZONE IN FLAMES
My first ever geopolitical study in life was in Jun 1967, at the beginning of the Six Day War. I requested my history teacher to explain to us all what exactly was happening in West Asia, with the closure of the Gulf of Aqaba by Egypt and the build-up of pan Arab forces on Israel’s borders. After
J&K’S TACTICAL BATTLES: MISNOMERS AND NUANCES IN THE CURRENT TIMES : PART 1
The Kokernag encounter received considerable attention in the media. Social circles in various towns and cities I have recently visited were also discussing it, especially if they happen to have someone in the know from the Army, who is reasonably experienced in operations of this kind. Lots of misn
Ukraine’s Offensive: Is This The Last-Ditch Battle?
In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, since April 2023 we have been constantly hearing of a likely ‘counter-offensive’ by Ukraine to overcome the negatives of the alleged defeat at Bakhmut where a battle of attrition raged for the last ten months. An offensive action by the Ukrainian army ha
Pakistan, With Head Above The Water : Way The Cookie Crumbles
I am becoming increasingly more confident at answering the inevitable question about Pakistan that is thrown at me in seminars, interviews and interactions on geopolitics. The question revolves around Pakistan’s survivability in the light of all that is happening in that country. I invariably opin
G20 In Srinagar : Threats And Opportunities
With two days left for the G20 Tourism Working Group Meeting in Srinagar on May 22-24, 2023, national and international focus on this unusual event is becoming rife. There are more than 200 meetings undertaken with the G20 banner all over India, since India is the Chairman of G20 for 2023. Why then
Surviving The Burnout: A Virtual Coup By The Pakistan Army Is Already In The Making
Pakistan has been in turmoil for some time, especially since its economy started showing signs of near-total collapse a little more than a year ago. The IMF placed tough conditions for its US$6 billion loan to be handed out, and the Saudis and UAE conditioned their loan bailouts on the demands of th
The 9 PARA (SF) Setback Is Temporary : Bounceback Is Inevitable
India’s Special Forces (SF) are its pride and the entire nation follows their actions and achievements with great interest. Hence the setback on May 5 in a recent operation in Rajouri’s Bhatta Durian Forest, where five brave hearts of 9 Para SF were killed in the line of duty, has obviously crea
The Poonch Terrorist Attack Has Big Strategic Implications
On 20 April 2023 a convoy of vehicles of the Army was targeted by terrorists between Bhimbar Gali and Poonch in the Jammu region. One Army 2.5-ton truck was struck with grenades and small arms, causing casualties and setting on fire the vehicle resulting in the personnel travelling being unable to e
SIACHEN 1987 : A Story Forgotten
Siachen is one of those battlefields from where very little information flows rearwards. Great feats of valour remain buried there, forgotten with nary a memory. Over time a ceasefire has become effective and casualties are primarily by weather and terrain. It's peaceful there today although the cha
Drawing Down The Army In J&K – Right But Risky
The ethno-nationalist conflict of Northern Ireland, although in existence for long, began in its last avatar in the late Sixties and ended with the Good Friday Agreement in 1997. It was an internal conflict with some external linkages. When I visited the region in 2006 on a professional tour, I quer
The Payoffs Of Disaster Diplomacy
At least two devastating earthquakes in the region of the Türkiye-Syria border near the south eastern province of Kahramanmaras, north of Gaziantep and near the border of Syria, have left the two nations in despair. The area is known for big seismic activity, but for long it has not witnessed somet
Pakistan Under Unending Strain : Part II
‘If the economic situation does not lead to its collapse, its militant groups will ensure prevention of its survival’ Part I of this essay emphasized on getting the background right, for without that a complex nation such as Pakistan cannot be understood. Nations with a propensity to pursue
Pakistan Under Unending Strain – Part 1
Pakistan has for long, been heading towards a situation where it could be perceived as a failed state, or at least a state under immense strain. Everything that goes into the efficient functioning of a nation appears under stress. The economy, internal stability and security, political leadership an