Why the Bangladesh Crisis is a Major Concern for India

After weeks of demonstrations and violence that started in July 2024, the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to India on 5th August 2024. The World’s longest-serving female head of state is presently in India and her plans include asylum in London.

Who Was Behind the Conspiracy

Hasina’s recent utterances show that she was aware of what was coming her way. On the Western sanctions on Russia, she said, “I don’t know what rationale there is for making people suffer like this. In a way, this is another violation of human rights. Depriving people of what they are owed… I hope the US sees the necessity of stepping aside from that decision (of putting Russia under sanctions). We hope they prefer to punish a single country instead of the people of the world and see that everyone wants it withdrawn.” Then she went one step further and stated, “The US has power to topple the government in any country and particularly the Muslim countries.”
Recently, Sheikh Hasina made another stunning revelation that the Western powers want a country like East Timor at the tri-junction of Bangladesh Myanmar, and India, called ‘Zo State’. They want to carve out a Christian country, taking parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar, though she didn’t mention that Zo State included some parts of Manipur. Similarly, last year in June in a press conference, Hasina stated, “There is no problem in staying in power if Saint Martin Island is leased to someone. But I won’t let it happen. I don’t want to stay in power by selling the country’s wealth.” She did not mention the US or China though it was obvious that it was one among them.
On 26th March 2023, US President Joe Biden reminded Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, to hold free and fair elections while greeting her on Bangladesh’s Independence Day. In the 12th national polls held in January this year, Hasina’s Awami League secured an absolute majority with 222 seats. The US stated that these elections were not free and fair. Some speculate about Western, particularly the US involvement in trying to remove Hasina from power. Nevertheless, the US ultimately recognized Hasina’s government, with some suggesting this decision was influenced by India.

The Chinese Checkers

In July 2024, a peculiar incident occurred. Bangladesh’s then-prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, was on her fifth historic visit to China. However, she cut short her trip and returned home earlier than planned. Hasina was supposed to leave Beijing on the 11th of July but departed for Bangladesh on the 10th.
On the surface, the reasons seem straightforward. China had pledged $5 billion in loan assistance to Dhaka but only announced a meager $100 million package, didn’t give full protocol, and had only one meeting between Hasina and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Did that upset her? These are trivial reasons for public consumption. The key to this puzzle lies in why the assured assistance was kept symbolic and what China demanded in return for providing full support to Bangladesh. Most likely, she was asked to act against India or provide a military base on Bangladeshi soil. A demand she cleverly refused.

Pakistan is Batting for Which Team

The present happenings in Bangladesh are signature moves of Pakistan’s spy agency the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The players like the US and China have a vested interest in Bangladesh. It’s not a secret that two out of these three players are backing the deadly demonstrations in Bangladesh.
The front runners in the whole game plan are ‘Jamaat-e-Islami’ and its student wing ‘Islami Chhatra Shibir’ (ICS). These organizations have long been perceived as an existential threat to Bangladesh, and this time is no different. The Jamaat-e-Islami, also known as Jamaat, was founded by Sayyid Abul A’la Maududi in 1941. Maududi was associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. The name Jamaat-e-Islami means “congregation of Islam” and “Islami Chhatra Shibir” means “student camp.” The organization’s ideology promotes Islamic domination and aims to establish Islamic rule worldwide.
Jamaat’s goal to establish Islamic rule in Bangladesh brought it into direct conflict with Bengali nationalism and the Bangladesh Awami League. The Awami League played a leading role in the country’s independence struggle from Pakistan in 1971. It was co-founded by Mujibur Rahman in 1949, who became the first prime minister of independent Bangladesh and is the father of Sheikh Hasina.
Due to their Islamic ideology, Jamaat was against the idea of the creation of Bangladesh and fought alongside the Pakistani Army against the Awami League, during the 1971 liberation war. Abdul Kader Mollah was the most notorious Jamaat leader, famously known as the “Butcher of Mirpur.” Mirpur is a suburb of Dhaka where he killed 350 unarmed civilians. Psychopath Mollah didn’t hesitate even once and neither did his heart skip a beat when he led his men to thrash a two-year-old child to death, slit the throats of a pregnant woman and two minor girls.
After gaining independence, Mollah and other Jamaat leaders were regarded as war criminals, prompting them to flee to Pakistan and await the right opportunity. It didn’t take long for that opportunity to arise. On 15th August 1975, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the Father of the Nation, was assassinated. This event was followed by a series of coups in Bangladesh on November 3rd, November 7th, 1975, and 24th March 1982.
The rules of Lt. Gen. Ziaur Rahman and Lt. Gen. Hussain Muhammad Ershad saw Islam gaining legitimacy, with secularism being removed from the Constitution, the weekly holiday being shifted from Sunday to Friday, and the compulsory recitation of the Quran. To legitimize his takeover, in 1978, Lt. Gen. Ziaur Rahman launched a political party called the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Today the party is being led by his ailing wife Khaleda Zia. BNP has always taken an anti-India stance.
The Jamaat leaders’ return to Bangladesh further gave credence to extremist ideas in Bangladesh. Despite its small following, Jamaat soon became a kingmaker in every election. Today they operate around 40,000 Islamic schools called Qawmi madrasas, attended by over 5.2 million students. These students are generally unfit to pursue other professions and often end up working as an imam, muezzin, or khadem at mosques, or become teachers in madrasas. Over time, they eventually become foot soldiers like the ICS of the Jamaat.
The radical student organization ICS has the backing of the Pakistani intelligence agency ISI. Many of its cadres have taken militant training in Pakistan. The conspiracy against the Sheikh Hasina government started a couple of years ago when ICS cadres infiltrated various universities, not to study but to further the Jamaat’s agenda. Chittagong University, Dhaka University, Jahangir University, Rajshahi University, and Sylhet University became their dens. The actual student organizations were left with no option but to depend upon ICS to win university elections.
With Hasina’s exit, another extremist organization that will flourish in Bangladesh is al-Qaeda-linked Harkat-ul Jihad al-Islami-Bangladesh (HUJI-B). HUJI-B was founded in 1992. Soon thereafter it got involved in anti-India activities. It had a major role in the founding of Indian Mujahideen (IM) and various terror activities undertaken by IM in India.

Reversal of the Fortunes

Sheikh Hasina ruled Bangladesh with an iron fist since 2009. Her 15-year rule is also known for human rights violations. The United States placed sanctions on the elite Rapid Action Battalion, linked to disappearances and extrajudicial killings.
However, during her reign Bangladesh, one of the world’s poorest countries in 1971, has grown an average of more than 6% each year since 2009. Poverty has plummeted with per capita income overtaking Pakistan in 2015 and India in 2021. Today more than 95% of its 170 million people have access to electricity.
Hasina was praised for her decisive crackdown on Islamist militants. In 2016, after five Bangladeshi extremists stormed a Dhaka cafe popular with Western expatriates and killed 22 people, she ensured their conviction. Above all, she maintained a delicate balance between two Asian giants, India and China.

The Indian Conundrum

The acting chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Tarique Rahman, who is a fugitive and the son of Khaleda Zia, has emerged as a prominent figure following the departure of the India-friendly Hasina. It is amply clear that China and Pakistan are the biggest gainers from the turn of events in Bangladesh. There are allegations that Tarique conspired with ISI and the Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS) in London to turn anti-reservation demonstrations into a widespread uprising. He was also the mastermind behind the recent ‘India Out’ campaign. Rahman fled to London after being convicted by a Bangladeshi court for conspiring to kill Sheikh Hasina in 2004.
It’s worth considering what promises Tarique Rahman has made to China and Pakistan that Hasina could not fulfill, even under the threat to her leadership. If the BNP comes to power, Rahman will likely lead Bangladesh. Under his reign Jamaat, ICS, and HUJI would have a free run.
India shares a 4,096-km international border with Bangladesh covering five Indian states. This includes 262 km in Assam, 856 km in Tripura, 318 km in Mizoram, 443 km in Meghalaya, and 2,217 km in West Bengal. As per the Indian government, there were 20 million illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in 2016. Another study indicates that for every illegal Bangladeshi immigrant caught, there are four more living scot-free. Therefore, it is anybody’s guess how many such immigrants are in India, how many more will cross over in the future, and what threat they pose to Indian security.

The 84-year-old Nobel laureate and interim leader of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, has provided a glimpse of what threat Bangladesh’s next leadership poses to India. His unambiguous warning, “If you destabilize Bangladesh, it will spill over all around, including Myanmar, the seven sisters, and West Bengal.” Now it is up to the Indian establishment and security agencies to understand the message hidden in his statement and act decisively.