- 23 November, 2024
Foreign Affairs, Geopolitics & National Security
Cdr Sandeep Dhawan (Retd)
A veteran of the Indian Navy, Cdr Dhawan served in the Navy from 1988 to 2009. He was a Maritime Reconnaissance Pilot and a Flying Instructor. He is a geopolitical analyst and writes for various online websites and organizations.
Articles Lists
How Would India Navigate the Chaotic Next Decade
As the excitement surrounding Donald Trump’s election as the 47th president of the United States begins to fade, it’s time to analyse the future trajectory of India over the next decade, which I refer to as a chaotic decade. Back in 2018, I predicted in a series of articles that starting in 202
Ring of Conflict Zones Around India – Clear and Present Danger
Last year, I discussed how India’s neighbouring countries were increasingly burdened by debt, which I referred to as the ‘Ring of Debt.’ I also predicted that after this phase, anti-India forces would move into the ‘transition phase,’ followed by the ‘dominance phase.’ With Sheikh Hasi
Why the Bangladesh Crisis is a Major Concern for India
After weeks of demonstrations and violence that started in July 2024, the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to India on 5th August 2024. The World’s longest-serving female head of state is presently in India and her plans include asylum in London. Who Was Behind the Con
Why Should Be India Considering The F-35 Fighter Jets
Hours before the US Defence Secretary Robert M. Gates's visit to Beijing in January 2011 aimed at improving defence ties, China’s military conducted a test flight of a new stealth fighter jet. Surprisingly, Gates wasn’t aware of the usual Chinese military’s show of strength gimmick during any
P8I Poseidon – Brain and Muscle
In June 2017, residents of Sikkim saw a strange, gray-colored aircraft loitering in that region for days together. On scrutiny, they found the Indian Navy written on its fuselage. What was an Indian Navy aircraft doing in that part of India? The puzzle for them was more intriguing than the puzzle of
Red Sea Crisis: How Has It Impacted India
Today it is household news that how on the eve of 5th January 2024, the Indian Navy’s Marine Commandos (MARCOs) rescued 21 crew members of the merchant ship MV Lila Norfolk, including 15 Indians, from the pirates, off the Somalia coast. However, the question arises — what is the Indian navy doin
Pakistan: Surge in terrorism poses formidable challenge in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Islamabad [Pakistan], December 13 (ANI): The surge in terror in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa continue to persist as an unsolved problem as despite countless military operations spanning almost a decade and resulting in substantial casualties among both security forces and innocent civilians, Dawn reported. T
Taiwan: China’s Achilles Heel
By enacting a national security law in 2020, China swiftly took away Hong Kong from the overreach of the Western powers. It was a rude awakening. While China didn’t keep its 1997, 50-year no-interference agreement, this time around no British or French warships sailed into the Pearl River to punis
China’s 2024 Threat To Indian Democracy
The Indian state of Karnataka went to elections on May 2023. It was surprising to note how the Chinese media gave coverage to a state election in India, a phenomenon that was not seen before. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) published articles with heading like “What Congress’ Win over Modi
China’s Invisible War With India And The World
On 15 June 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) backstabbed the Indian Army patrolling team during the Galwan Valley Clash. The whole nation was angry, but the flag-bearers of the India-China Friendship Association (ICFA) were unwavering in their support for China. ICFA didn’t see any r
Threat Of Chinese Rocket Force And The Indian Options
The recently leaked U.S. intelligence documents have an aspect that is overlooked by many — the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF). The leaked top-secret documents reveal a report by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff intelligence directorate, which talks about a successful test by PLARF
A War With China – Is India Prepared?
Col Grant Newsham’s new book “When China Attacks: A Warning to America,” is a wake-up call for the United States. The book argues that the dispute between the US and China cannot be solved by reasonable discussion. The West also thought that increasing commercial activities will make China mor
Lessons For India: From Russia And China With Love
In January 2022, I predicted the exact timeline of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The United States was the only country that was making noise about the imminent Russian attack on Ukraine. The rest of the western world was living in Utopia. https://twitter.com/InsightGL/status/1485657113385144322?s
The Battle of Balloon and Missing Stanislav Petrov
At the height of cold-war, on September 26, 1983, Soviet Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov was on duty monitoring the early-warning system codenamed Oko, or Eye. Its function was to detect the launch of an American nuclear attack. Its command centre was in Moscow inside a massive bunker beneath the secret c
India’s Three Wars
On January 18, 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a video conversation with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops. He inspected the combat readiness of the troops stationed at Kunjirap under the Xinjiang Military Command near Ladakh. Interestingly his address coincided with massive tri-se
Indian Military Reforms: Delays, Dispassion and Dissociation
India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi will attend the Combined Commanders’ Conference in Karwar in March 2023. Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen Anil Chauhan will also be present. It is expected that the Indian military leadership will take decisive steps towards creating the much-awaited milita
India Beware Of Copycat Chinese Air Force
In China, ‘Shanzhai’ today means imitation products that originally meant mountain stronghold. This word was originally associated with pirate factories producing duplicate products. Who knew one day, China would be copying and stealing just about everything and be known as a copycat nation.
India Needs A Military Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Revolution
It is Balakot 2.0 kind of night, with a different target and different platform. It would be remembered as Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) night. A swarm of decoy UAVs took off from a secret location in north India and crossed to Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK). Following them were several High-Altitu
Chinese Navy’s Advancements: Challenge Or Opportunity For India
The Chinese digital news outlet ‘The Paper’, recently published details of China State Shipbuilding Corporation’s display of a large number of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), unmanned surface vessels (USVs), and underwater gliders at the Zhuhai air show. These numbers exceeded those put u
American Deep State Out to Sabotage India-USA Relationship?
Recently the US embassy in Islamabad went on a social media overdrive. In a series of tweets over three days, they highlighted the US ambassador to Pakistan, Donald Blome’s 2-4 October visit to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). This was the second high-profile visit by any U.S. official since April
Coronation Of Emperor Xi and The World Thereafter
A few days ago, news about Chinese President Xi Jinping's arrest took social media by storm. The rumour was that Xi, who is the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), on return from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (S
China is Coming For Your Land: Farmland
Drought has plunged water levels to the lowest in China in decades. The temperatures have also soared to record levels, and hydropower plants failed to meet the sharp rise in power demand. However, this is just a glimpse of the worst things to come. Floods, droughts, and record-breaking temperatures
Anti-India Forces: Techniques And Agendas Exposed
In the post-cold war era, India has moved from a policy of non-alignment to a policy of multi-alignment. This means that India has friendly relations with almost all-powerful and developing nations. Today India is carving out a unique path for itself. Such an approach provides prominence and expo
Terrorism: The Glue That Holds China Pakistan Together
The father of communism, Karl Marx, once famously said — “We have no compassion, and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror”. This statement summarises how terrorism and communism go hand in hand. China, living up to the same ethos, on 1
When Beijing Was Burning Xi was Playing Personal Games
A great fire destroyed Rome for six days in the summer of AD 64. Famous Roman historian of that time, Tacitus, recorded that 70 percent of the city was destroyed and half of the city’s residents were displaced. Roman ruler Nero was accused of being indifferent, ineffective, and careless. The end r
A Quad Of A New Kind: Tech Quad
Machines, big and small, all rely on one component, semiconductors. Be it computers, telecommunications, household appliances, banking, security, healthcare, transportation, manufacturing, and last but not least, war-making machinery, all depend upon semiconductors. So, it won’t be unreasonable to
China Plundered, India Blundered And Sri Lanka Surrendered
On Wednesday, Ranil Wickremesinghe, present acting President, was voted in as the next President of Sri Lanka by the Sri Lankan parliamentarians. Sri Lankans are not rejoicing this news. The angry protesters have been demanding his removal from office for weeks. Earlier, they had set Wickremesing
A Mirage Called Pakistan, Why It Is, What It Is
Pakistan is known as the sick man of Asia. It is a young country blessed with natural resources and strategic locations. However, after 75 years, it lags behind all the nations in almost all the fields that got independence around the same time. The present state of Pakistan can be explained by one
China’s New Aircraft Carrier Fujian: Hit or Miss
While the United States was wrapping up its Valiant Shield 2022 exercise on 17 June, China launched its third aircraft carrier with all the fanfare. The launch was postponed twice due to logistical and technical issues. The aircraft carrier has been named Fujian with the hull number 18. It has been
Xi’s Re-election: Opportunity For World, Curse For China
China is gearing up for the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party to be held later this year. According to the consensus view, President Xi Jinping’s historic bid for a third term as the party’s General Secretary is assured. The Chinese President and General Secretary of the C
United States Outmanoeuvres Russia Once Again?
In a recent briefing, the US Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Avril Haines warned, “I would characterize it as the Russians aren’t winning, and the Ukrainians aren’t winning, and we’re at a bit of a stalemate here.” So, where is the Russia-Ukraine war heading? What is Russian Presi
How Russia-Ukraine Copied Finland War Without Lessons
Finland is a unique country with a distinct language and culture. However, its possession was always contested between Sweden and Russia. Though Finland mainly remained under Swedish control in 1809, it was annexed by Russia. Using the end of World War I and the Bolshevik Revolution in late 1917, Fi
Ukraine: One Chessboard, One Master
As the war in Ukraine inches towards the seventh week, there is a weariness among the warring nations; unconcerned people across the globe are clapping at the sight of missile attacks, as if it is a video game. Ukrainian mothers are counting their fallen sons and daughters, but no peaceful end is in
Who Is Rocking Imran Khan’s Boat?
Almost two years ago, I had written the highly successful but controversial article — “Is Pakistan Heading For Another Dictatorship.” Many people, including Pakistanis, objected to the articles’ findings, stating that in modern-day Pakistan, there is no place for a coup. I had explained to t
Ukraine Conflict and India’s Hard Choices
On 24th January 2022, I assessed and tweeted from my account (@InsightGL) that Russia will invade Ukraine after 20th February, the closing day of the disastrous Beijing Winter Olympics. Unfortunately, my predictions came true, and activities started on 21st February. The invasion of Ukraine is par
Vladimir Putin: What’s Cooking Between Two Ears
President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin gave an important speech on 21 February 2022. He gave his version of long historical evidence of the nonexistence of Ukraine. But his last few words gave away his game plan in Ukraine, “I consider it necessary to make a long-overdue decision to im
Should India Be Worried About Russia-China Bonhomie ?
It had been two years since Russian President Putin had met Chinese President Xi Jinping. That drought got over when they met on the sidelines of the opening ceremony of the 2022 Beijing Olympics on 4th February. Most observers thought that the two leaders would intensify their anti-Western agenda.
Success or Failure: Beijing Winter Olympics Is Bad News for the World
Fourteen years ago, China conducted the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. The games were a success, and the biggest beneficiary was Xi Jinping. He was Vice President of China and competing for the presidency with present Premier Li Keqiang. The successful Chinese Olympics debut encouraged and embolde
China’s Invasion of Taiwan – Opportunity for India
Today China has over 350 ships and submarines (130 major surface components), numerically making it the largest Navy globally. These extraordinary Chinese naval expansions are not there to recreate the 15th century goodwill voyages of Admiral Zheng He. China has bigger ambitions, and Taiwan is part
5G Technology on Collision Course With Aviation ?
It all started with the launch of the 5G cell phone service in the United States on 19 January 2022. Despite years of lead time, things hadn’t moved the way they should have been. A feud broke out between telecommunication companies and the aviation industry over the issue of interference from hig
China Is Preparing For The Next Pandemic, Are We ?
A hypothetical scenario: The year is 2030. It’s been five years since you or your family members have stepped outside your home. It’s too dangerous out there. This pandemic is deadlier than anything humanity has seen before. Death is lurking in every corner of the city. It requires special gear
India’s Offensive Against China Should Be in the Grey Zone
Grey zone is not a fixed concept but a hypothetical place between peace and war. Until now grey zone activities were generally restricted to psychological warfare, subversion of political systems, and covert paramilitary and information operations. China is expanding that envelope. Off late it has a
Crystal Gazing 2022: India and The World
If we thought 2019 and 2020 presented uncertainties then 2022 is here to surprise all of us. It could be remembered as one of the most complex, unpredictable, and potentially dangerous years in the recent past. COVID-19, oil crossing $100/barrel, Iran-US nuclear talks, Iran-Israel tension, artifi
When India Goes to War With China
It is an open secret that China challenges everything India sets its eyes on, be it cooperation with Quad partners (the United States, Australia, Japan), international organizations like United Nations, WHO, or designating a terrorist organization. India, a Quad member and a close ally of the United
Tackling Chinese Technological Advantage
"China has won the artificial intelligence battle with the United States and is heading towards global dominance because of its technological advances”. When the Pentagon’s former software chief Nick Chaillan made this claim, it felt as if the whole world had come crashing down. The whole episod
Strike China and Save the World: Part 2 – Manufacturing Reality
Just imagine a video of Chinese authorities brutally assaulting and arresting Chinese citizens who have a credit rating below certain criteria, appearing on Sina Weibo. In no time this video would be viral on WeChat, DouBan, YouKu, and several other Chinese social media platforms. By the time the Ch
Strike China and Save the World: Part 1 – The Timing
Employing force to contain aggression is a well-known strategy. The timely dominance of an aggressor can save a nation from a very painful future. India has seen this first hand in the last 1000 years or so. In the recent past too, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, people thought that the conce
The Curious Case of Pakistan, China, TTP and BRI
On 1st October Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan broke all hell loose when on the Turkish government-run TV channel, TRT World, he disclosed that the Pakistani government is in secret talks with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), facilitated by the Afghan Taliban. The Pakistanis were upset for m
Tumbling Evergrande Caged Tech Giants: China Much Desperate More Dangerous
"War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means.” ― Carl von Clausewitz, On War An ancient Chinese stratagem advises military leaders: “Loot a burning house.” The trick is easy and self-explanatory — attack when your opponent is most vulnerable. Chin
Time to Exploit Deceptive China’s Fault Lines
Today every free country is looking at China in disbelief. The CPC and XI Jinping have opened up a number of fronts, more than they can afford. China faces humongous challenges in the aftermath of the pandemic. Unemployment is going through the ceiling, and demonstrations against the government are