WILL TRUMP 2.0 PROVE TO BE THE TRUMP CARD FOR INDIA AND THE WORLD

Curtains came down on more than a yearlong intense campaigning in the US Presidential election by Republicans and Democrats at the end of voting hours in Alaska, the western most state of the US, on November 5, 2024.
The contest was expected to have a nail-biting finish. It did not. It was thought that the final result might elude us for days and weeks if not months. It did not.

In fact, the direction of the final result became quite obvious a few hours after the counting commenced. Donald Trump registered a decisive and emphatic victory, even if it was not a landslide triumph. He became the first US President after more than a century to win a non-consecutive term. He also became the first Republican President after 2004 and only the second since 1988 to win more popular votes in the election than his adversary. He was able to achieve this by significantly enhancing his appeal to the electorate across the board. In addition to the white males without college degrees, who were the mainstay of his committed support base, Trump weaned away many voters from different demographics including the Latinos, the Blacks, and the Asian Americans including the Indian Americans who had voted for Joe Biden in 2020. With this added support he amassed more than 74 million votes with a total of 312 electoral votes. As against these numbers, his opponent, the Democrat Kamala Harris was able to muster only 71 million votes with 226 electoral votes. What was particularly remarkable was that Trump romped home with a convincing win in all the seven battleground states with 93 electoral votes, out of which he had won only North Carolina (16 electoral votes) in 2020.

From the results it has become obvious that notwithstanding the yarn spun by the mainstream media of a close contest with a razor thin margin for either of the contestants, the issues raised by Trump of a declining economy, imperative need to stop inflow of illegal immigration, futility of US participation in conflicts around the world etc. resonated with the ordinary Americans. On the contrary, the issues raised by Kamala Harris of abortion and pro-choice versus pro-life, saving democracy, several ongoing cases against Trump etc. were not enough to tilt the balance in her favour. Not only was Trump able to enhance his appeal in the red and swing states, but he got a higher proportion of votes than in 2020 even from blue states like California, New York and other North-Eastern States.

In the historic election which has brought Trump once again to the White House, he has also managed to snatch the Senate from the Democrats and appears to continue the control that the Republicans enjoyed over the House of Representatives. With the Supreme Court packed 6-3 with the Conservative judges, 3 of whom were appointed by Trump in his earlier tenure, there will be very few checks and balances to stop Trump from doing what he wants to do. In any case, voting on ideological lines, the Supreme Court by a majority of 6-3 declared recently that the President enjoyed immunity and could not be charged for any actions undertaken in pursuit of his official functions.

The US election, like most national elections in large countries, was fought on domestic issues and not on foreign policy aspects. The outcome will however have far reaching consequences for the world at large.
There has been considerable anxiety and nervousness in several regions and capitals of the world about the impact that Trump’s victory would have on those countries and regions.

One of the most critical among them is China against whom Trump has threatened that he will impose tariffs of 60 % on imports from that country. It is understood that China has been trying to Trump-proof its economy against any actions that Trump might decide to take. There is a precedence for this. In his last Term, Trump had levied penalty tariffs on about US$300 billion imports from China. China had retaliated by levying tariffs on about US$100 billion of imports from the US. The fallout of this tariff war, something like which could break out this time also if Trump were to follow up on his threats, was that China signed an Agreement with the US in January, 2020 committing to buy additional goods worth US$200 billion per annum from the US. The Agreement could not be implemented because the Covid-19 pandemic struck soon thereafter. Chine is particularly worried because its economy is suffering from many challenges including inadequate domestic consumption, demographic downturn, decline in real estate, hi-tech and education sectors etc. Sensing this possible flow of events, several global investors have already started pursuing the China+1 investment strategy. India could be a possible beneficiary under such a scenario. India was not able to take adequate advantage of such a development in the post Covid sequence of events. India will have to improve its game and make itself a more attractive investment destination as compared to some other competitors like Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland etc.

It is expected that Trump could also double down on the Indo-Pacific and the QUAD. Both these concepts are his babies and he could try and progressively disengage the US from its involvement in Europe and the Middle East and devote much greater attention to the Indo-pacific to push back against the expansionist policies of China. The proposed appointment of top Congressman Tim Waltz as the next NSA and Senator Marco Rubio as the Secretary of State, both well-known and pronounced China hawks, could spell greater strategic discomfort for China. Simultaneously both of them are known to be big supporters of even stronger and closer defence, economic and technological partnership between India and USA. They are also not isolationists as Trump is reported to be. It can hence be safely assumed that the US engagement with the World will be sustained.

NATO countries are also apprehensive of the attitude that Trump might adopt regarding support to Europe. His threat to withdraw from NATO during his first Term and also terming it as ‘’brain dead’’ does not inspire confidence among member states about Trump’s solid support for NATO’s role to ensure security for Europe. It can however be reasonably expected that Trump will not take such a drastic step to abandon NATO but instead, insist that the member states meet the requirement of spending 2% or more of their GDP to bolster their defences. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 23 NATO member-states including Poland, Germany, UK etc. are already spending more than the minimum threshold. There will be an insistence on all others including the alliance partners in East Asia viz. Japan, ROK, Australia to reach this minimum threshold.

Trump has promised to stop the wars. It is inconceivable how he will be able to do so. In addition to a preponderant majority of Democrats, there appears to be a significant number of Republicans who want to continue the military support to Ukraine. He could ask for a halt in the military operations in Ukraine, as the conflict appears to have wound down to a stalemate over several weeks if not months. The Europeans have also been actively mulling over how to Trump-proof their security and defence strategy.

In the context of the Middle East, it can be expected that Trump’s overt support for Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu could increase. He will also try to reinvigorate the continuation and expansion of the Abraham Accords launched by him in 2020. He will try to get Israel and Saudi Arabia on the same page This is easier said than done. However, the lure of a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon could prove to be an attractive carrot for Saudi Arabia to make a decisive move towards Israel. Pressure on Iran is likely to increase but will fall short of expansion and escalation of the conflict to an all-out regional war.

Trump had walked out of the Paris Climate Accord when he assumed power in 2017. He has threatened to do so this time also. If he carries out his threat, it will be a huge blow to the rather tentative and hesitant moves being made by different countries, particularly developed ones, to deal with the existential threat of Climate Change.

Trump’s victory has been greeted with relief and satisfaction in the policy circles in India. Not that Joe Biden did not advance the India-US strategic partnership substantially and fundamentally. Several far-reaching initiatives like the iCET, elevation of the Quad to Summit level, decision to export technology of GE 414 aircraft engines to India, promotion of manufacture of semiconductors in India, US support for India’s G20 Presidency, and many more, were taken over the last four years. It was during Biden’s tenure that PM Modi was invited as a State Guest to the White House and also to Address the Joint Session of the US Congress for the second time.

It can be reasonably expected that the ‘’woke’’ pressure on India on alleged backsliding of democracy, oppression of minorities particularly Muslims and Christians, human rights violations etc. would stop or would be significantly tempered down. India and the US will be on the same side of the aisle in confronting China as well as terrorism emanating from Pakistan.

PM Modi and President-elect Trump developed an excellent rapport during Trump’s previous tenure. The same confidence and trust among the leaders will guide and shape the evolving relations between the two countries. There could be some hiccups in the areas of trade and H1B visas. India’s capacity in economic, strategic, military sectors etc. has significantly expanded since Trump’s earlier regime. What defines Trump is his unpredictability, his capriciousness and his transactional behaviour. India is quite confident to work effectively with him to safeguard and promote its interests.

The Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership between India and the US is a factor of peace, stability and prosperity, not only for the people of the two countries but for the world. In his message on X (formerly Twitter) on his conversation with President-elect Trump soon after the latter’s victory, PM Modi wrote: ‘’ Looking forward to working closely together once again to further strengthen India-US relations across technology, defence, energy, space and several other sectors.’’ Challenges in the world have grown since Trump was last the President of the US. A close understanding and strategic convergence of interests will guide the India-US bilateral partnership to new heights.