The political scientists are of the opinion that China under Xi Jinping has come up to be a challenge for the global power ecosystem that has been largely led by the West for decades. This is being reflected through the larger US–China tussle, which is slowly taking shape in West Asia, which has remained one of the largest spheres of influence for the US. The growing influence of China in West Asia can be seen in the following ways: –

• Energy: Oil remains a critical component of West Asia’s strategic design. Since the US itself has become a net exporter of energy, its reliance on the Middle-East (West Asia) for oil has reduced. China, being the second largest economy of the world, therefore attracts the Gulf-Cooperation Council (GCC). Presently, the GCC provides 40 percent of China’s oil imports, with Saudi Arabia alone exporting 17 percent.
• Defence and Strategic Affairs: Saudi Arabia is allying with Beijing to construct its own ballistic missiles and the UAE was able to get F-35 fighter jets from the US despite Washington’s concerns over secret Chinese military facility at one of the UAE’s maritime ports. Further, Beijing and Tehran agreed upon a comprehensive strategic agreement (2020) that involved components of both security and economy. China is also working with Israel to tap its human resource potential in the field of high-tech, innovation and defence technologies.
• Trade: China’s exports to the Gulf region have grown at 11.7 percent annually in the last one decade, enabling China to overtake the US and the European Union as the region’s biggest source of imports. Further, the two-decade-old GCC-China FTA negotiations have received a fillip due to the first China-Arab States Summit in 2022. About 20 Arab states have also shown their interest in the massive BRI project of China, which would pass through the Middle-East.
• Economic Diversification: The GCC countries have started diversifying their economies to reduce dependence on oil and China is playing an important role in this. For example, development of “smart ports” across the region. The West Asian region is host to largely
  autocratic and monarchic ‘middle powers’ and China is offering money to them without concerns such as human rights, democracy, freedom of press, etc. However, it is too early to declare the end of US hegemony in the region.
• Presence of Armed Forces: The US armed forces are present across the region with military personnel located in several regional states, whereas China’s current permanent deployment in the region is a naval flotilla, which consists of three ships that are deployed to the Gulf of Aden at all times. It also occasionally brings its naval vessels in parts of the Indian Ocean.
• Defence Supplies: The US still remains a major security partner of most Arab states and the principal arms supplier. Though China has supplied armed drones to Saudi Arabia, these are only a tiny fraction of the weapons supplied by the US. Amidst the US-China narrative, Russia is also considered as a desirable player in the Middle-East, as it is playing strategic roles in Libya and Syria.

Though it would be too early to declare the end of US hegemony in West Asia, the dawn of a multi-polar world is expected in the near future.

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This most serious outbreak of fighting between armed factions in Hamas Islamist-run Gaza and Israel since 2019 began with standoff between Palestinians and Israeli police at Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on Monday. On Monday, more than 300 Palestinians were injured at Al Aqsa Mosque in clashes with Israeli police, who fired rubber bullets, stun grenades and tear gas in the compound, according to the Palestine Red Crescent Society.

Palestinian militants fired rocket barrages into Israel from Gaza for a second day on Tuesday and Israeli warplanes struck the enclave in a deepening conflict in which at least 26 people in Gaza and two in Israel have been killed. Palestinian health officials in the Gaza Strip said 26 people, including nine children, have been killed in fighting with Israel. Israel’s army said it launched airstrikes on Monday, killing a senior Hamas commander, in response to rockets fired by Hamas amid spiraling violence sparked by unrest at Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa mosque compound. A number of rockets fired from Gaza toward Israeli towns on Sunday evening and Monday morning were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system and no injuries were reported.

The attacks escalated with fresh rounds of Rocket fires by Hamas on Tuesday. Palestinian militants fired rocket barrages into Israel from Gaza for a second day  and Israeli warplanes struck the enclave in a deepening conflict. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would step up its strikes on Gaza in the face of the surge in rocket attacks. Ina video statement, the PM said, “At the conclusion of a situational assessment, it was decided that both the strength of the attacks and the frequency of the attacks will be increased.” Israeli tanks massed on the Gaza border as officials said infantry and armour reinforcements were being dispatched. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the rocket attacks from Gaza against Israel should stop immediately. He urged all sides to take steps to reduce tensions.

The new tensions in West Asia looks to linger on, though reports say that Hamas militants in Gaza have retreated to their bunkers. India has to do a fine balancing act in dealing with Israel and Palestine while #IndiastandswithIsrael trended in India on Monday.

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Notwithstanding the internal and external challenges India faces, and the imperative need to focus on economic growth, providing our young population with proper education and appropriate skills for fruitful employment, and raising the quality of life of the less privileged sections of our society, it would be prudent for the governing establishment and the strategic community in the country to dwell on the fact that within the international setting in the first half of the 21^st Century and beyond, India will have a role to play both regionally and globally. A role imposed on us by a number of factors: the size of the country; its geo-strategic location straddling the Indian Ocean; the population of over a billion people (and growing) with a demographic dividend in its favour; its established democratic credentials; a significant capability in information technology; a large reservoir of scientific talent including in space technology; acknowledged management expertise; proven military capability; and the large market for consumer goods and services. We cannot and must not shy away from this serious responsibility.

Internationally, the situation is that most countries, including major players like the USA, European Union, Russia, Japan, as also some of the regional organisations, would without much doubt like to see India play a more active role in promoting democratic values and contributing to stability in the region. Primarily because of the perception that India has the ability to do so, as also because of their desire not to be directly involved themselves in many cases. The only factor that could inhibit the Indian establishment in developing the appropriate military capability to support such a role is perhaps some reservation about the ability to build a national consensus in this regard.

If India is to play its destined role in regional affairs and be taken seriously at the global level, Indian diplomacy will need to move into high gear, taking into account the fact that in the conduct of foreign policy, there is little place for righteousness and moral posturing; it is to be guided solely by sovereign national interests. In the immediate region, it may be useful to get off the high pedestal we have tried to place ourselves on, shed the patronising approach we seem to have mastered over the years, and evolve mutually acceptable working relationships with our neighbours. There is no gainsaying the fact that India has a vital stake in the developments in the immediate turbulent neighbourhood. Instability and social upheaval will have inevitable adverse “spill-over” effects that will cause us security problems and generate greater stress within our society. A society already somewhat traumatised by the terrorist attacks that take place (or the threat thereof); orchestrated as they seem to be, by groups located and supported by elements in neighbouring countries. Even so, while there is little doubt that we need to factor the sensitivities of our neighbours into the capabilities we endeavour to develop, it should be made clear that India would be willing to apply its economic and military pre-eminence in pursuance of its supreme national interests, and for the maintenance of peace and security in the region. Conveying such a message would have taken some more effort because we need to first undo the lack of credibility regarding our determination to act decisively in pursuit of national security interests. Not too many countries took us seriously in the past since we have invariably indulged more in rhetoric that in action. That has without doubt undergone some change following the commando raid across the LoC after the Uri episode, the air strike at Balakote after the Pulwama incident, and most recently, the responses to Chinese aggressive actions in Eastern Ladakh. It may similarly be useful to recall and take appropriate lessons from: the operations undertaken in Jammu and Kashmir in 1947-48; the Hyderabad Police action immediately after Independence; liberation of Portuguese held territories of Goa, Daman and Diu in 1960; taking the war across the international border in Punjab and Rajasthan during the 1965 operations; and the outstanding victorious military operations undertaken for the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971.

In so far as India’s military forces and operational posture are concerned, it would be presumptuous on my part to try and analyse in such a piece the capacities that need to be put in place to deal with the possible threats within the complete spectrum of warfare in the 21^st Century. This is without doubt  the subject of evaluation and analysis in the official domain at various levels.

I do think that if we can get our political, economic and diplomatic acts together in the years to come, we should be able to avoid being drawn into a military conflict against either of our adversaries. Even so, there can be little argument that our military capability should be demonstrably built up to the extent of being able to deal with external aggression through the application of conventional forces, limited or otherwise, and strategic nuclear capability should that be required. The internal situation being what it is, the Armed Forces will continue to be engaged in managing insurgencies and terrorism in the North East and in Jammu & Kashmir. There may well be demands for deploying the military to deal with the Left Wing Extremism problem, which one would hope the military leadership will have the courage and wisdom to resist, as the problem basically relates to governance and policing.

In the immediate neighbourhood, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are all affected by conflict or latent conflict situations that pose a threat to regional peace and security. We will also have to contend with the increasingly aggressive postures being adopted by the People’s Republic of China on our borders with Tibet in the North and North East, as also in the Indian Ocean periphery. In the extended region we have the dangers posed to international shipping in trade and energy supplies by piracy off the Gulf of Aden and the scope for similar activities around the Straits of Malacca. The volatile situation in West Asia including Gaza, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and the tensions over possible moves for acquisition of nuclear capability by Iran, are factors that contribute to regional instability. Notwithstanding the efforts of the African Union, the continent is plagued by religious, ethnic and tribal conflict that continue to destabilise many of the countries in the region. Looking even further beyond, one can perceive the scope for conflict in some of the constituents of the former Soviet Union and in the Balkans.

There has been much soul searching and discussion at various forums that the international community needs to be more proactive to prevent genocide, contain conflict and encourage the emergence and establishment of democratic societies. To that end, it seems that attempts are being made for the international community represented by the United Nations or recognised regional organizations, to intervene either with the use of force or for peacekeeping with the consent of parties to a conflict.

Given India’s established expertise and military capability, there can be little doubt that we will be called upon by the international community (represented by the UN, or by regional organizations, or by our neighbours on a bilateral or multilateral arrangement) to deploy our military, possibly together with others in a multi-national force, and may be even take a lead role, for dealing with what are perceived as threats to regional or international peace and security. This is an aspect on which we must start deliberating and focusing without further delay. To study in detail and evolve a concept: for command & control; coordination; operational compatibility, etc together with other like minded countries in the region and beyond.

I have tried to submit this issue for consideration at every conceivable opportunity and forum over the last couple of decades. That towards preparing for possible eventualities there is a compelling case for India to put in place and maintain, a sizeable dedicated rapid reaction force for intervention, stabilisation, and peacekeeping operations, as also for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR), within the region, and beyond; organised, trained, equipped and located appropriately, and under strategic direction and oversight. Needless to say, such a force would be available for use as operational reserves in a conflict situation when India is at war. It is not the purpose of this article to go into the finer details of such a force. One is also aware that this is not a new idea or concept. That it has been studied and discussed before. But the context that I have tried to suggest of a greater role for India at the regional and global level possibly merits that a more focused study of the concept be undertaken without further delay.

In my view, given the type of regional or global commitments the force may be required to undertake, such a force needs to be a multi-dimensional tri-service one operating under joint operational command, and include components from the Army, Navy and Air Force, elements from the Coast Guard, civil affairs officers, civilian police components, personnel trained in human rights aspects, legal affairs personnel and representatives from the diplomatic corps.

To that end, such a rapid reaction task force should desirably broadly comprise the following:

• A tri-service corps sized headquarters.
• A land forces component to include an airborne brigade, together with a division comprising an air transportable armoured brigade equipped with light tanks and infantry combat vehicles, an amphibious brigade and an air transportable infantry brigade.
• An army aviation component, assault engineers, communication and logistics elements.
• A naval component that desirably includes an aircraft carrier, together with appropriate surface and sub-surface craft and aerial maritime capability.
• An Air Force component that includes strike aircraft, helicopters and strategic airlift capability.
• A suitable Special Forces component.
• Civilian components to include diplomatic representatives, civil affairs personnel, civilian police, human rights personnel, etc.

In context of the demands being placed on us for provision of troops for peacekeeping, and requests that have occasionally been made for us to consider the scope for participation in multi-national operations, as also demands that may arise for HADR (like the Tsunami in 2004), it is not only prudent but imperative that the Chiefs of Staff Committee immediately seek Government approval for setting up such a rapid response capability.

Simultaneously stressing that setting up of such a force would also give us added operational capability in the event of a conflict situation.

While formalisation of the concept and authorisation of the organisation, personnel and equipment, may take its course, though hopefully at some speed, it may be useful to set up the nucleus of such a task force by drawing on existing assets that can be made available. This can be more than justified from the operational capability of view given the situation in the neighbourhood, and the possibility that the Armed Forces may be called upon to act unilaterally in pursuance of our national interests, or to assist in a bilateral context at the request of one of our neighbours (as happened in the Maldives in 1988). That we should be prepared to do so needs no further emphasis. Which can only be facilitated if we create the capacity, analyse concepts of employment, evolve an appropriate doctrine, carry out joint training, put in place a logistics infra-structure, and so on. The sooner we commence work on this the better.

Together with such initial moves it is important that we work on a number of other measures in cooperation with regional and global players. It would be useful for joint working groups comprising diplomats and selected military personnel to inter-act at the international level amultilateral forums t like the United Nations and with selected regional organisations, to share perceptions about coordination and training, exchange of data on trouble spots on a regular basis, mechanisms for consultation, etc. Within the extended neighbourhood, similar moves should be initiated to secure understanding and cooperation from organisations like the ASEAN Regional Forum, Gulf Cooperation Council, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, etc. Needless to say it would be good if similar moves could be initiated within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, but that may pose some difficulty at present due to the stand-off with Pakistan.

While the training of personnel from the three Services and other components of such a task force should receive focused attention to achieve integration, it is also essential that commanders and staff officers are gradually exposed to operating with their counterparts from other countries either bilaterally or at multilateral forums in order to foster better cooperation and coordination. Equally if not more importantly, training of senior military leadership must focus on the nuances of multi-national operations, particularly in context of the possibility of India being asked to assume a leadership role.

Author

Lt Gen Satish Nambiar, PVSM, AVSM, VrC (Retd) was the first Force Commander and Head of Mission of UNPROFOR, in the former Yugoslavia during 1992-93. Besides many other accomplishments both  nationally and internationally, he was honoured with Padma Bhushan for his contribution to National Security Affairs in 2009.

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Dr. Waiel Awwad, West Asia Expert

The global international political system changes in order to achieve the objectives of big powers opined on wars, security, peace and transitional political, economic, cultural and social systems that shows interaction among the world political units. Hence, to understand international relations we need to learn how the international order operates.

The era of traditional wars and colonization ends up in an anarchic world order. The world is witnessing scarcity of resources and collapsing of old systems of governance. A new era with traditional parameters and original state concepts equipped with new information technology and a modern war system, which requires no boots on the ground, will shape the New world order in time to come.

The Arab nation for the last century has changed from a nationhood to a statehood. The region extends from North Africa to West Asia which constitutes almost 450 million of Arabs sharing a common history and heritage, a common language and set of customs and tradition with common objectives and aspirations that have united them under a common goal and cause. The area was under the Ottoman occupation for four centuries, and then under the reign of the victorious countries of the world war; i.e., France, Britain, Russia and Italy, that these countries decided to inherit the “Sick Man” Ottoman Empire and assigned the French and British diplomats Francois Georges-Picot and Sir Mark Sykes (Sykes-Picot Accord in 1916) to divide the share among them. It was in 1917 that the Bolshevik communists, led by Vladimir Lenin, founded a copy of the Sykes-Picot agreement in the government’s archive records and Lenin called the treaty “The Agreement of Colonial Thieves” to ensure the birth of a “Jewish State” in the heart of Palestine by Britain which paved the way for achieving that by Belfour Declaration on 2nd November 1917.The region wealth, particularly the oil resources, was looted and controlled by the colonial powers and the original plan was erased and replaced by San Remo agreement and the country was colonized and divided between France and Britain which defined the shape and destiny of each Arab state. Hundreds of thousand people lost their lives struggling for independence over the years and when the Arab countries started gaining independence post World War II, they were transferred into statehood with different goals, sabotaged any attempt for unification among the Arab countries, ensuring limited nation-nurturing.

The Arab leaders flew new flags, built opulent palaces for themselves, encouraged commercial elites, and trained plenty of men in uniform with weak public institutions, fractured civil societies, and weak and iniquitous economies with meaningless economic reforms and flawed laws. Most of the countries were wracked by coups and instability, ethno nationalist and religious conflicts which aimed to use religion as a tool to achieve its political objectives. The West and USA preempted any attempt from democratic set up, and kept oil rich Sheikhdoms under their influence, mainly colonial British and USA.

The systematic destruction of modern Arab states started with the invasion of Iraq and took a big leap during the Arab Spring. The pandemic exacerbated the crisis and led to an economic growth, sharp decline and more inflation and unemployment coupled with bad governance and corruption.

When the whole world had a sign of relief for the arrival of President Joe Biden into the White House, people of Syria had no hope of the new administration knowingly that Washington’s policy toward Syria and the axis of resistance are drawn by Tel Aviv. US continues, illegally and against International laws, to occupy northeastern part of Syria, trying to create a Kurdish enclave in an area inhabited by majority Syrian tribes, denying them the right to return to their farmlands and houses, allowing the so called Kurdish Democratic Force to continue ethnic cleansing and stealing the Syria oil and gas in the rich territories denying the majority Syrians their source of living and surviving during this harsh time of pandemic and US economic sanctions under Caesar Law .

The plight of Syrians under US and its allied occupational forces continues to aggravate the situation and tighten the siege of the people, forcing them to bow to their dictates, expelling them from their houses and selling their lands to turn them into a military base for US forces that are illegally present there protecting terrorist organizations like Al-Nusra front affiliated to Al Qaeda and ISIS, both were listed as terrorist organizations by United Nations.

The external regional players are muddying in the spoil in keeping the region divided, and inciting internal fighting. Moreover, the big powers escalated the fight among neighboring countries for drawing the maritime lines with the new discovery of large reservoirs of oil and gas in the Mediterranean Sea.

Biden`s Administration is trying to redraw its policy toward the region from Saudi Arabia to Iran and Turkey. There are talks of ending the war in Yemen and checkmate President of Turkey`s expansion policy and closeness to Russia, while keeping a close eye at Israel’s dominance and security of the region to focus on China. The complexities of the burning issues in West Asia and conflicting interest of each ally of USA in the region will be a major challenge for President Biden and his team.

The new entry of China into the region has added a new dimension to the ongoing crisis and will take some time to shape this entry whether it will be military after being an economic interest after the onset of the Belt Road Initiative (BRI), especially after the economic crisis in these countries because of the pandemic. The entry of China will lead to more confrontation with the USA and the West who consider this region as their own sphere of influence.
In its part India enjoys a close and cordial relations with the Arab world for centuries and these relations have been strengthened during the cold war and India`s pivotal role in the Non-align movement. After the dismantling of the Soviet Union and emergence of a unipolar world, India was in the process of economic reforms and started using its soft powers to strengthen relations with the region in particular the Gulf States, with 14 million Indians visiting the region annually and around 8 million India Expats living there who contribute heavily to the growth and development of GCC and with more than 70 billion US Dollars revenue. India’s energy security and geopolitical proximity make New Delhi a major stakeholder in ensuring peace and stability in the region, and hence there is a great sense of urgency for India’s proactive role in the region as a peace broker. The emergence of India as a big power which enjoys a global respect and a good reputation as the largest democracy in the world, has given the ties between India and the region a momentum and further cemented and taken it to a new level during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership which has been evident in the warm reception and repeated visit by the Prime Minister and top officials.

The Contemporary West Asia and North Africa (WANA) Order, standing at an important juncture, led by regional players, like Turkey`s quest of Neo-Ottoman policy, who is romancing with Muslim Brotherhood, Israel with an expansion policy and determination to annihilate Palestine; and thirdly Iran with its anti-western powers is spreading its sphere of influence in the Axis of resistance extended from Iran to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. This has prompted the great powers to change the game plan. The USA will rally NATO allies to a new cold war with Russia and China in a more imbalance of the world power system.
The multifaceted crisis facing the region has been exposed after the Arab Spring and the Pandemic. There is a decline in human intolerance, low income, weakened national health system, and rise of radicalism and extremism in the Arab world which is undergoing a multiplicity of political changes which will redefine its final outlook. The traditional wars and colonization era is over and a new generation and concept of dominance is drowned in war rooms of sophisticated new technology and cyberspace .The impact will be global and the region is not an exception.

Author

Dr.Waiel S.H Awwad is West Asia Expert and is a winner of many international awards. Many of his writing published in English and Arabic in major news papers and magazines. He is Fluent in: Arabic, English, and Hindi & Persian.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. All information is provided on an as-is basis. The information, facts or opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of chanakyaforum.com and it does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.

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