Why Russians are intuitive, and how Russia-Ukraine conflict is a litmus test for the Chinese

“Why have you massed so many troops at the border?”.
“In case of a provocation”.
“But what if there is no provocation”.
“How can there not be a provocation with so many troops”.

This exchange between Hitler and Chamberlain was featured in the pages of history just before Germany invaded Czechoslovakia in 1938. Eighty years later, the Ukraine-Russia impasse is quite similar. The situation in Ukraine leads to 2 questions- Why Putin has not invaded Ukraine as yet, and it is really about the tiny strip of land in Donbas?
I believe the roots of this conflict lie with the rise of Putin in the early 2000s. It is no secret that Russia tried to join NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union but was denied and constantly underpinned by the West. For the last 20 years, Russians have increased their sphere of influence in the former SU states like Belarus, Kazakhstan and Eastern Europe while NATO was busy fighting wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan. As Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov put it- “For us, its absolutely mandatory to ensure Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of Nato”.
Unlike the Anti-Western Rhetoric, Russia today wants to retain its sphere of influence, that’s all! The old glory of Russia is behind them. Putin knows NATO is slowly enticing Russia, The Warsaw Pact dissolved after the breakdown of the Soviet Union, but NATO continued and has since extended over 1,000 kms eastwards. Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have joined the alliance and hold troops and missiles on their soil. With Georgia and Ukraine also slipping away, Moscow is asserting that it is taking on the role of the former USSR.
Winners and Losers
Turkey- Amberin Zaman, reporting from Vinnytsia, Ukraine, writes, “Turkey, not America, is commonly cited as the country that boosts Ukraine’s flagging spirits the most and whose actions show that it isn’t afraid of Russia”. Whether drone sales or unstinting diplomatic support for Ukraine over Crimea. In addition to this, Ankara seems to believe the Black Sea region gives it leverage to use the 1936 Montreux Convention as a bargaining chip in the transactional relationship it seeks with the Joe Biden administration, especially with the economic woes turkey has. Thus Turkish ambivalence has not gone down too well with the Russians.
China- As a former German Navy chief Schonbach put it rightly, China is the biggest threat, and NATO has pushed Russia deeper into Chinese sway for the last decade that set the stage for a worldwide schism on the lines of Russia-China and NATO. China now feels emboldened to go after Taiwan seeing the mixed response from the US. It also gives China space to react to the US’s growing clout in the Indo-pacific and AUKUS.
Conclusion
What is happening in Ukraine cannot be seen in isolation by New Delhi. The Situation in Eastern Europe only buttresses the Chinese position sensing the inability of the US to take decisive action against Russia and form a diplomatic consensus against Russia. This conflict is also a litmus test for Turkish drones, which Pakistan has in its armour against India. ATGMs and MANPADS will decide this conflict. It will be interesting to see how Russian tank commanders deal with them.