The Pseudo Frontier

As of January 25, the Biden Administration has announced that 8500 troops are on a high alert if there is an invasion of Ukraine by the Russian forces; surprisingly, the statement by Vice Adm Kay-Achim Schonbach in the IDSA event in New Delhi Indicated otherwise, which eventually led to his resignation from the position of Germany Naval Chief,
As we know, Soldiers tend not to be politically correct, especially someone with the stature of Vice Adm Schonbach, who is chief of a strong navy in the region, then why such a statement at such a time.
Perhaps there is more to it than meets the eye as we know after World War 2, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)came into existence in 1949 as a measure to prevent further extension of Soviet influence in the region. And so made the Warsaw pact to keep checks and balances in Europe, which eventually came to an end after the collapse of the USSR.
The reason for the trouble we see on the Russo-Ukraine border since 2014 has its origin here after the collapse of the USSR, Russian Federation was seen as the Successor of the Mighty USSR, and Great Promises were made that would eventually lead to great disappointments later on.
In 1999 When Vladimir Putin came to the helm of affairs in Russia, an intreating development took place in Europe Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined NATO. This was perceived as a betrayal of Trust by Russia.
However, there was not much that could be done about that at that time as the Russian federation had a lot to deal with internally because of the economic plight it was in due to the collapse of the USSR and Ill governance by the Yeltsin administration in 2004 a further extension of NATO came and this time Estonia Latvia and Lithuania along with four other central European Nations Joined in, this was the tipping point of the conflict between Russia and Georgia in August of 2008 and Russia by this time had made it clear that it will not tolerate any further expansion of NATO to- -wards its West or South, as a matter of fact, Georgia got the message Loud and clear and gave up on its adventurism on NATO.
However, the bags of surprises had more left, and it was Russia’s time for delivering it to NATO and EU in March of 2014; taking advantage of the ethnic divide and negligence by Kyiv, Moscow Launched a Surprise Invasion of the Crimean peninsula and took lessons from 2008 war with Georgia, this time it took Kyiv by shook and the NATO as well and the European powers looked dumbstruck by this move, the Obama administration did everything in its power (Non-Militarily) to send message to Russia Suspension from G8 now G7 Economic sanctions to prevent further escalation of the situation from Russian Federation which proved impactful until 2021.
Why? 2021 is the question anyone would beg to ask. The three major reasons for this are listed below.
Covid 19
NordStream2 and a fractured NATO
Covid 19 put an enormous loss of life and economic damage to the world the first world; economies are still reeling from the Delta variant USA, UK, France, Germany close to 1 million deaths in the first world have left a huge gap in the medical infrastructure of the first world countries and the economies are badly impacted because of the Economic relief packages and loss of workforce which has also lead to a severe deficit in the supply chain which is seen as a major hurdle in the economic recovery of the first world economies.
During the time period between 2014 and 2021, Russia and Germany have seen the completion of Nord Stream 2. The EU is heavily dependent on Russian supply for Natural Gas. also during this period, Russia has completed its second pipeline to the East with China, Yes China, Beijing, and enormous hunger for fuel directly bordering Russia the gist of the story being in these seven years, the Russian economy has become sanctions proof and maybe even stronger Russian economy, but that is for economists to decide.
Fractured NATO leadership
After the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the USA and Allies drew much heat from their Military ranks and worldwide this has led to a steep difference of opinion among the NATO leadership, and no sign of clear-cut directives is seen coming from the NATO members up until now, the NATO political Ranks have not been able to send a clear message to the on-ground soldiers what would be a plan of action in case of Invasion of Ukraine by Moscow.
Therefore, the Statement from Vice Adm Schonbach, Although the situation at the ground seems to be grim, he was not completely wrong if seen from his point of view, which is a soldier’s perception, and that can be explained in the manner below.
The threat of Invasion of Ukraine is more beneficial than actually invading it for Russian Leadership because Invading mainland Ukraine this time would bring no ground gaining benefits to Russia although it has a sanctions proof economy, The German leadership threat for Cancellation of Nordstram2 would leave Russia in a difficult situation completely dependent on China as a market, which is a situation that Russia itself would not prefer to be present in CAATSA has hurt Russia defense exports hard, and it could lose potential buyers like UAE and INDIA for S500.
However, leaving the Ukraine frontier open gives Russia a leap over Western powers, and it sends the message to the third world that Russia is back in the game; it can reclaim some of the USSR spheres of influence which could lead to stronger economic benefits for it, Russia is also a member of OPEC+ due to this looming threat in Europe it can control gas prices worldwide which would bring it more than ever economic benefits.
If Russia wanted to escalate the situation, it would have already done because the timeline suggests that Ukraine has had a mild winter this year, and the timeline has allowed Ukraine to be armed by UK, USA, and France; apart from this, Russia has nothing more to gain in Ukraine it already has Crimea and the black sea warm water port.
Russia would not throw all this away; however, politically, Moscow has proved that NATO is not as strong as it was believed to be and clearly was able to dent its reputation.