The growing US-Russia tensions and implications on India

The United states and Russia , during the cold war era, have been on extreme ends of the continuum with countries like India, Saudi Arabia, China (now taking the erstwhile USSR position), Israel etc falling in between. The world was divided on either of the two sides until China started emerging since 2005. The recent war of words between the United states and Russia further highlight the tensions between the two superpowers. Calling the Russian President ‘a killer’ by US President indicates the future steps that US would take against Russia.

What is the issue?

There could be three major points on which the tensions could continue. First, the two countries are the top two arms exporter in the world. In present times, when its tough to predict the who, when and how of the nuclear bombing in any corner of the world, the countries are possessive of their position in defence deals and exports. This can be highlighted by the CAATSA act enacted by the US congress in 2017 to impose sanctions on countries importing defence equipment from Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Its repercussions could be seen in the recent report by SIPRI, highlighting that India’s defence imports from Russia have reduced by 53%. Some may rightly attribute this to India’s newly launched Atma Nirbhar Bharat policy and the new Defense procurement policy, the growing dependence on Russian equipment is detrimental to Indo-US interests.

Second, the allegations on Russia for meddling the 2017 US presidential elections which favored Donald Trump’s win. This still might be bothering to Joe Biden administration.

Lastly, Joe Biden last year categorically stated that Russia is US’s main threat. This is evident from Biden’s speech where he called Russia an authoritative regime. Unlike Donald Trump, the Biden administration would take a reverse stance on Russia and China. It is expected that the United States would have truce with China and be hard on Russia.

Impact on India:

The deteriorating relations between the two countries is prejudicial to India’s interest. However, if the relations deteriorate, it is likely that India will have to make compromise with Russia. Tensions between the two superpowers would push Russia closer to China which is against India’s interest. US sanctions on Russia have already made the purchase of S-400 for India difficult. Further aggravation of tensions would strengthen the grip of the Indo- Pacific in the hands of China. Also, the entry of India as a permanent member in the UNSC could be vetoed by Russia in addition to China.

It is evident that India’s proximity towards US is clearly being noticed by Russia. This again puts India as an ally of the United states.

What India can do?

It is rightly said that in geopolitics, nations do not have permanent friends or enemies, only interests. India should keep its interests in priority. It should make a balanced approach and try to avoid the sanctions policy of the US against Russia through diplomatic talks. India- US- Russia need to collaborate and respect each others interests at least until the Taliban talks are concluded successfully. If US-Russia relations deteriorate, it can be harmful for the interests of a peaceful Afghanistan.

Also, India needs to focus more on its Atmanirbhar policy which would reduce India’s dependence on foreign nations. India should increase its production of renewable energy and should diplomatically try to persuade countries to be a part of International solar alliance.

India has to emerge as an independent power in Asia rather than an ally of US. It can play the role of big brother by including regional players in initiatives such as one sun, one world , one grid. Also we have to find a middle ground so that we can soon acquire a permanent seat in the UNSC.

The US- Russia war of words has significantly depreciated the Russian ruble. The FDIs into Russia may reduce and the economy may crash. India would find its ground only when both-the United States and Russia- find a common ground.