
Introduction
The first Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or QUAD Meetings of the Trump Administration was held between the foreign ministers of the four member countries viz. Australia, India, Japan and USA, on January 21, 2025, one day after the inauguration of President Trump as the 47th President of America, and a few hours after Senator Marco Rubio was confirmed as the Secretary of State (Foreign Minister) of the US. This signalled the steadfast resolve and strong determination of the four governments, particularly of the United States, to expand and strengthen cooperation through the Quad platform between the four countries.
Two of the participants in the meeting viz. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi were newcomers as this was the first QUAD meeting they were attending. The Indian and Australian foreign ministers have however been participating in the QUAD deliberations for the last many years.
This message reaffirming the commitment of the four constituents of the Grouping was extremely important because till then it was unknown how President Trump would react in taking this initiative forward. The fact that the meeting was held immediately after the inauguration of President Trump demonstrated America’s commitment to giving the QUAD a significant place in its foreign policy strategy.
Evolution of the Quad
The Quad marked the 20th anniversary of its founding in 2024. The four countries had come together impromptu and voluntarily to provide humanitarian relief and succour to countries devastated by the catastrophic tsunami that hit several South and Southeast Asian countries on December 26, 2004. The idea of Quad received a further fillip with the seminal Address by the then Japanese PM Shinzo Abe on the ‘Confluence of the Two Seas’ to the Joint Session of the Indian Parliament in August 2007.
However, both the idea of the Quad and the Indo-Pacific received a huge setback with the change of governments in Australia and Japan in late 2007. The Australian PM Kevin Rudd, who came to office in December 2007, two months after the resignation of Japanese PM Abe, decided to scuttle the then-nascent Quad at the instance of China. Rudd, as a Mandarin-speaking diplomat, was keen to cosy up to China, which had already expressed its unhappiness with the development.
With the advent of Xi Jinping at the helm of affairs in Beijing in 2012 and the expansionist policies pursued by China in the South and East China Seas, the dormant idea of the Quad witnessed a resurrection in 2017 by President Donald Trump, who had identified China as a strategic threat to his country and the world.
The Quad has made significant progress since it was revived on the side-lines of the East Asia Summit in Manila, the Philippines, in November 2017, exactly a decade after the ‘’Confluence of the Two Seas’’ speech by PM Shinzo Abe. The Quad meetings took place at Senior Official level till September 2019, when the first meeting at foreign minister level was held on the margins of the UN General Assembly in September 2019, followed by an independent, self-standing meeting of the Quad foreign ministers in Tokyo on October 6, 2020.
A significant impetus was provided soon after President Biden assumed office in January 2021 with a virtual summit amongst the four leaders in March 2021, followed by the first in-person summit in Washington, DC, in September 2021. These were followed by in-person summits in Tokyo in May 2022 and Hiroshima in May 2023. This period also witnessed another virtual Summit in early March 2022 in the wake of the unprovoked Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022. The final Summit of President Biden’s tenure, 6th overall and 4th in person, was organised in Wilmington, Delaware, the hometown of President Joe Biden, in September 2024.
It is quite remarkable and unprecedented that 6 Summits – 4 in person and 2 virtual – of an inter-governmental Organization are held over a short period of about 44 months. This is indicative of the seriousness with which these countries take the growing security and economic threats emanating out of China through its aggressive actions in the South and East China Seas and its Belt and Road Initiative.
Results Thus Far
The raison d’etre of the launch of the Quad in 2007 and its subsequent revival in 2017 was the assertive rise of China in the South and East China Seas as well as its growing influence, particularly in the developing countries, through its Belt and Road Initiative. The latter led to huge problems like debt traps, economically unviable and environmentally unsustainable projects, corruption, non-transfer of technology, non-creation of jobs etc. in the infrastructure projects.
Starting with the three themes of Covid-19 vaccines, critical and emergent technologies, and Climate Change in 2021, the Quad over the past four years has evolved tremendously and hugely widened its Agenda to cover subjects like fighting cancer, and pandemics, bolstering quality infrastructure, maritime domain awareness, STEM education, counter-terrorism efforts, cyber security, connectivity, healthcare, the Quad Partnership for Cable Connectivity and Resilience, enhancing the resilience of Quad’s semiconductor supply chains, education, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, space, conduct joint patrolling by coast guards, people-to-people initiatives, and many more. It was decided at Wilmington to expand the scope of Quad interactions to include Commerce and Industry Ministers also. The fundamental objective of the Quad is to ensure a free, open, secure, stable, inclusive and prosperous Indo-Pacific, maintain the rule of law, and safeguard and uphold the freedom of navigation and overflight, and other lawful uses of the sea.
The Foreign Ministers Meet in Washington DC
With the change of government from Joe Biden to Donald Trump, the fate of the Quad hung in a balance. It was not known which side the scales will tilt – towards greater engagement and collaboration or towards disinterest and neglect.
Trump has been known to side-line and reject many initiatives taken by his predecessors. He did this in 2017 by moving out of the Paris Climate Change Accord, by disassociating the US from the Transpacific Partnership Agreement, by abrogating the Iran nuclear Deal, and several more. In 2025 also, he signed several Executive Orders on the first and second days of his Presidency annulling several initiatives of the Biden government including the Green New Deal, a series of Biden measures that were aimed at boosting green jobs, regulating the fossil fuel industry and limiting pollution; halting funds appropriated through two laws, the Inflation Reduction Act and another law on infrastructure and jobs, and many more. It was thought that looking at the conflicting signals he has been sending in China and also because of the high priority given by Biden to the Quad, Trump might decide to downgrade it and not provide it the same salience and band width that it received under Biden. This has clearly not happened. One of the important reasons for this could be that Trump considers the Quad to be his own baby, having resurrected it from the ashes in 2017. Equally plausible reason is that notwithstanding the mixed signals on China, he continues to believe that China is the most potent threat to the dominant and hegemonic position and influence of the US in the world. And the Quad is one of the most potent and effective instruments to deal with it. Whatever might be the reason, the Quad can look forward to a bright and promising future in Trump 2.0.
As in the past Summits and foreign ministers’ meetings, the China factor loomed large over deliberations and decisions at the Washington foreign ministers meet on January 21, 2025. Although the name of China has not been mentioned explicitly in any of the Documents and Declarations issued by the Quad so far, most significant decisions point a finger at China’s expansionist activities in the Indo-Pacific region.
In the brief Statement issued at the end of the Washington meeting, the four nations restated their “shared commitment to strengthening a Free and Open Indo-Pacific where the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended.” In an apparent reference to the threat that China will act on its claim to sovereignty over Taiwan, the Statement added: “We also strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion.”
The content of the Statement and the body language of the four ministers exuded a great deal of optimism and confidence about the opportunities ahead.
China, as in the past, denounced the Quad as a Cold War construct.
Conclusion
The four ministers declared that the next Summit of the Quad will take place in India in 2025. This had been decided when India swapped its place to host the Summit with the US which did so in Wilmington, Delaware in September 2024. The fact that the Grouping did not miss a step and hit the ground running after the transformative change of government in Washington DC, sends out a strong message that activities under the Quad will continue to expand in scope and outreach.
The Quad is not an Asian NATO as claimed by China (and Russia). It does not have a military or defence component to it. It is not directed against any third country. It is an instrument to provide Global Public Goods, as specified in paras above, to countries of the Indo-Pacific. It is designed to ensure that countries of the region do not succumb to coercive tactics against their own interests and that countries don’t dominate or are dominated by any country.
Developments over the last few days in Washington DC give rise to strong hope that the Quad will continue to flourish in the coming years.
After having been revived by President Trump in 2017, the Quad appears to have completed a full circle in January 2025.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views of Chanakya Forum. All information provided in this article including timeliness, completeness, accuracy, suitability or validity of information referenced therein, is the sole responsibility of the author. www.chanakyaforum.com does not assume any responsibility for the same.
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