The Current Status of Pakistan’s Nuclear Assets

Does Pakistan currently have any nuclear weapons? Alternatively, presuming that Pakistan still has nuclear weapons in its possession, does it still have the key controls to operate these weapons?

The pusillanimous behaviour of the Pakistani Military Establishment, over the past few years, aroused my suspicions in this regard. Take, for instance, the 2016 Balakot surgical strikes by the Indian Army. The tepid response by Pakistan was astonishing. As an act of retaliation, they sent a few F-16s into India, one of which was knocked down by an ageing MIG 21 of the Indian Air Force. The Wing commander Abhinandan episode, that followed these retaliatory strikes was laughable to say the least. A Pakistani leader testified in parliament that General Bajwa was perspiring and his legs were shaking when he heard India’s directive that Abhinandan be returned to India within 24 hours otherwise India will declare war on Pakistan and hence, Pakistan handed over Abhinandan to India within the stipulated time. Similarly, the Abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir was met with a muted response from Pakistan despite their perpetual claim of Kashmir being the lifeline of Pakistan.

I admit that, for the past many years, the Pakistani economy has been in doldrums and it doesn’t have the funds to wage, leave alone win, a conventional war against India. However, Pakistan is supposed to be a nuclear power. I’m sure that, in case of a war with India, they have enough resources to launch a few nuclear missiles against India. So, how come, they didn’t use or threaten to use the nuclear option against India. That alone could have deterred India from taking any major action against Pakistan. Take Pakistan’s twin brother North Korea for example. In case of a war against, the West supported, South Korea, they would have been pulverized by the US and South Korean aggression. Yet, when it comes to military action, all these countries keep a respectful distance from North Korea. One can argue that North Korea has Chinese support but then, so does Pakistan. So, why does Pakistan let India trample over it in all areas and why is there no nuclear sabre-rattling by Pakistan against any Indian aggression? Why is it that, despite its precarious economic condition, it’s not in a position to blackmail the US and the West for financial support otherwise threatening to hand over some nukes to radical countries like Iran or to terror groups in the Middle-East or North Africa? why is it that, despite all this turmoil in the AF-PAK region, the US is not overtly concerned about Pakistan’s nukes? Is it because of the combination of a lack of Pakistan’s access to nuclear weapons and that the US and Indian governments have knowledge of such fact?

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, for military purposes, was established in 1972 by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in response to India’s advancements in the field post its 1962 war with China. In the 70’s and 80’s, the US chose to turn a blind eye to Pakistan’s progression in the nuclear field as it needed Pakistan as an ally to counter the growing Soviet influence in Afghanistan. In May 1998, Pakistan officially declared itself as a nuclear power after detonating 5 nuclear bombs in the Chagai District of Balochistan.

Since the 90’s, the US and the West have been wary of Pakistan’s nuclear programme on account of the high level of radicalization in that country and its endeavours at nuclear proliferation. The western concerns were further exacerbated when, post the 2001 Indian Parliament attack, President Musharraf threatened to use nuclear weapons if attacked by India. However, due to the ongoing war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US and the West chose to countenance Pakistani nuclear threats and diffused the tense situation between the two nuclear powers. After that, as in the past, the US continued to extend its influential grasp over the Pakistani Military Establishment by showering key personnel with generous financial benefits. In fact, in the aftermath of 26/11, the US used extreme pressure on a weak Indian government to avoid any retaliation against Pakistan.

Nevertheless, the moot point is that, by then, the US had completely understood something that it was always aware of. It was always aware of Pakistan’s entire nuclear proliferation activities and its proliferative support to Iran, Libya and North Korea’s nuclear weapons programmes. It understood that the radicals in the Pakistani army and the ISI could never be trusted and that, in future, the Pakistani nuclear weapons could be a major threat, not only to India but also to the US and the entire West. There was always a chance of radical elements in the Pakistani establishment handing over some of these weapons to some terrorist group or the other. Therefore, logically speaking, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that the US was putting in plans to take control of Pakistani nuclear assets.

Given the high levels of greed and corruption amongst the elites of the Pakistani establishment and the fact that their families and all their businesses and investments are in the West, taking control of Pakistan’s nuclear assets is not such a big deal for the US and the West. If given enough incentives, these elites will have no qualms in compromising Pakistan’s national interests or its nuclear assets. I have mentioned this fact in my article “American Troops In Pakistan” https://chanakyaforum.com/american-troops-in-pakistan/

The presence of nuclear weapons in Pakistan have also been a threat for China which fears reprisals from radicals for its atrocities against Moslems in Xinjiang. So, the US and the West may have had tacit Chinese support in their endeavours. For years, the State controlled Pakistani media, has been regularly parroting the State narrative that “Pakistan is an Atomic Power.” I don’t think I have sung the Indian National Anthem that many times. However, the point is, is Pakistan actually a nuclear power at this juncture?