The Afghan Embroilment – A Golden Opportunity For India

In 2001, post the 9/11 attacks, the US, apart from launching a ferocious aerial attack on the Taliban ruled Afghanistan, also sent in a little over 1000 troops along with additional troops being sent in by a coalition of NATO and other US allies. The troop levels in Afghanistan grew steadily over the next few years. With the advent of the Obama government in 2009, there were critical talks of gradually phasing out all troops from Afghanistan in a few years’ time. Nevertheless, in 2010, the US troops level in Afghanistan peaked at 100,000 despite such plans. However post 2010, the US began the gradual reduction of its troops in Afghanistan.

Currently, the Biden administration is working on completely withdrawing all troops by Aug-Sept 2021. The surprising factor in the current US troops withdrawal scenario is that the US, knowing fully well that such an endeavour will lead to large scale internal turmoil inside Afghanistan, decided to fully withdraw all its troops from Afghan soil. The Biden administration, despite plenty of objections from military analysts and seasoned politicians, felt that this was the optimal course of action for the US.

Despite the US having spent a weary and expensive 20 years in Afghanistan, when one looks at the whole scenario in a logical manner, it looks like the unveiling of an intricate plan by the US and the west to checkmate China and perhaps Russia too. If we take a close look at the available facts, on the one hand we have the barbaric Taliban creating havoc and rampaging towards Kabul and the US deliberately turning a blind eye on Afghanistan and with a politically and economically unstable Pakistan in the neighbourhood, it won’t be long before this turmoil inside Afghanistan engulfs the entire AF-PAK region.

Secondly, all of a sudden, the entire Pakistani Military establishment has taken a strong anti-US stand which is evident from the blabbering of its mouthpiece Imran Khan. Now, this doesn’t make any sense because all the funds, businesses and families of the Pakistani elite are based in the west (including Australia) and antagonizing the west would be detrimental to the personal interests of these elites. It looks like the making of a Trojan Horse to entrap China. Mind you, the Chinese are not stupid and they know that the Pakistanis are as untrustworthy as the Chinese themselves hence they will tread very carefully through all this.

Nevertheless, all this turmoil on its eastern front will force China to use more resources for protecting CPEC and prevent this turmoil from seeping into Xinjiang while, at the same time, having to manage pressures on its eastern front in the South China Sea and also on its southern borders with India. Severe turmoil in the AF-PAK region will definitely stifle the Chinese CPEC and BRI initiatives as well as the Russian backed Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Russia is wary of US intentions but it’s not entirely comfortable with its, fair weather, alliance with China especially given the constant Chinese attempts to steal Russian technology and also its endeavour to economically dominate Russia. So, in all probability, Russia will adopt a wait and watch policy.

This scenario provides an excellent opportunity for India to push forward its agenda for growth and development and also to have a much larger presence in the international stage. A rapidly disintegrating Pakistan and a China embroiled in protecting its borders and also its business interests removes all major hurdles in India’s endeavour to have a significant presence in Central Asia.

Most of these Central Asian republics have fallen into the Chinese Debt Diplomacy trap with Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan on the verge of debt default. China and the Chinese people are extremely unpopular in the Central Asian republics. India already has decent trade ties with most of these countries but, in the current scenario, it can substantially increase its investments in these countries.

Technically speaking, the Chinese Debt Diplomacy is an attempt by China to subjugate and destroy weaker countries so, I believe, it won’t be wrong for these countries to treat this Debt Diplomacy as an act of war or aggression by an enemy state and hence refuse to honour all obligations towards such debt and, after all, China is not the only country that can dishonor agreements at its own whims and fancies.

If one or more of such countries choose to adopt this stance then, if required by them, QUAD can set up military bases in these countries in order to protect them from nefarious Chinese endeavours. India needs to use its diplomatic muscle with the US and the west to get them to tacitly support these countries in their stance vis-à-vis China. Even if one of these countries stand up to China then a lot of countries around the world, with the support of QUAD and the west, will start standing up to China and refuse to honour their debt obligations.

The chances of China, with so much pressure at its borders, aggressively retaliating against such countries is minimum. Additionally, South East Asian countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and, if possible, Taiwan can be made a part of the QUAD alliance. The resulting pressure on China and the turbulent AF-PAK region will give India an excellent opportunity to takeover POK and also make inroads into the Trans-Karakoram Tract. Also, India will have the opportunity to augment its business and investment opportunities in all these, China Free”, countries.

Needless to say that we’ll need the full support of the US and the west in all these endeavours and although the US is a highly unreliable partner, the large Indian market, our low cost manufacturing base and the American need for a reliable bulwark against China will ensure a smooth relationship for the next few decades.