End of US Combat Missions in Iraq – End to Forever Wars or a Rebranding?

When US President Joe Biden met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi at White House on 26th July 2021, both sealed an agreement to formally end the US combat missions in Iraq by the end of this year. With this, Biden said “Our role in Iraq will be…to be available to continue to train, to assist to help and to deal with ISIS as it arises, but we are not going to be by the end of the year in a combat mission”. The announcement clearly shows the rebranding of US missions in Iraq, rather than a forever end to the ‘forever wars’.

It all started on the night of 9/11, when a memo from Paul Wolfowitz, then Deputy Secretary of Defence came, asking the defence intelligence agencies in the US to look for Iraqis involvement in terrorism, rather than Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. This seed, planted by Wolfowitz was able to convince a whole nation to wage a war against Iraq. Finally in March 2003, a US led coalition invaded Iraq based on the charges that then Iraqi leader Saddam Hussain and his government possessed WMDs (Weapons of mass destructions) . As a result, Saddam was ousted from power, but the WMDs were never found.

Under President Barack Obama, US military was able to formally put an end to all its combat missions in Iraq in December 2011. However, they returned in 2014 to help Iraq combat Islamic State terrorists, who had utilised the power vacuum of Iraq to control a wide range of its territories.

With 2500 troops at present, this shift from the combat mission is not a major adjustment for the US presence in the region as it is already focusing on advising and assisting the Iraqi military. So, on the ground, it is unlikely for the announcement to bring any significant changes. However, in recent months, US troops in Iraq had often been targeted by Iranian drone strikes and thus prompting back-and-forth retaliatory action. The tensions between the US and Iran escalated when Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) was killed in a drone strike, carried out by the US.

Now, if see the relation of the US and Iran, it was Kadhimi’s second official visit to Washington in less than a year. Also, he was the first Arab leader to speak with Biden after the President assumed office in January, thus showing the continued importance of Baghdad for Washington. Though the July 26th announcement doesn’t bring any significant changes, it is however, purely aimed at supporting Kadhimi, who had been under pressure from Iranian-aligned parties and paramilitary groups to expel foreign troops from Iraq.

The recent series of devastating hospital fires in Iraq, that left dozens of people dead and the soaring coronavirus infections had only added fresh layers of frustration on the Kadhimi government. With this deal, Kadhimi would be able to add a feather in his cap before the scheduled elections of October 2021. At the same time, with this the US is aimed at reducing Iran’s influence in Iraq and put an end to Iranian-aligned militias’ attacks on US personnel in the country. The US also aims at shifting its focus on the real threat, that is the growing hegemony of China.

On 5th August 2021, Ebrahim Raisi had taken the oath to become Iran’s 8th President. Though, Biden initially had talked about reviving JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), but with the hardliner Raisi coming into power, this possibility remains far-fetched. And if this revival happens, it would only benefit India and its relation with Iran.

With the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran could use this situation to increase its influence over the region. And to do that, a good relation between India and Iran is crucial to handle the Taliban, which is rapidly gaining power in Afghanistan. However, all these things are time dependent and only the future would tell us, how things are going to take shape.