• 28 July, 2021
Foreign Affairs. Geopolitics. National Security.
MENU

Disengage, De-Escalate but Prepare for the Next

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM*
Mon, 15 Feb 2021   |  Reading Time: 5 minutes

Disengagement between the Indian Army and the PLA in Ladakh was expected but it came earlier than what may have been anticipated. After nine rounds of military led talks and commencement of an immediate pull back of heavier elements a resolution of issues between the two countries still remains unlikely; a LoC situation at the LAC is likely to exist for the foreseeable future considering the severe trust deficit. The last ten months have educated the Indian public a great deal due to which there is little expectation of any resolution in the air. China and its PLA have lost much credibility and trust and are not expected to pursue any serious path towards peaceful co-existence with India. However, India may be ruing its wasted years in which it focused on the wrong flank while the main developed from the north.  The interesting developments in Ladakh will need to be studied for long to give us more answers to the dragon’s intent and future strategy, something which yet remains nebulous in our minds. However, there are a few issues to examine at the outset for a series of such analyses, looking into the near term. We could begin with the following:-

  • The characteristics of the strategic environment which will dictate the future course of Sino-Indian relations?
  • China’s likely strategic attitude towards India?
  • India’s preparation to deal with China in the immediate future?

These are generically addressed in this essay.

It is being broadly assessed today that China views the coming of the Biden Administration quite positively and wishes to remain better engaged with the US even as the post pandemic world order evolves. It probably feels that there is need to convey positive strategic messaging to the rest of the world to detract from the extremely negative image emerging from the linkage of the coronavirus with Wuhan’s wet markets and allegations of China’s involvement with deliberate virus spread. There is no necessity for it to pursue standoffs, especially where objectives are extremely limited. Disengagement would reduce risk of accidental sparking of border friction which could easily lead to much more in the tense environment such as the one existing with India. The Indian mobilization of 50,000 troops to the Ladakh border communicated a sense of seriousness with which the standoff was viewed by the Indian political leadership. Politically it was a test for India’s leadership and it handled it adroitly judging all along that China had overstepped and bitten more than it could chew.  What perhaps was not expected was the manner in which the politico-diplomatic handling was done by India leading to greater Indo-US security chemistry and first serious considerations towards actualization of the Quad. China does not wish to see that chemistry become any more transformational; it will progressively realize how badly it miscalculated the Indo-US chemistry and the speed with which India’s northern borders started to get linked with larger Indo-Pacific security.  The Biden Administration may not have displayed any out of the way chemistry with India but neither has it shown negativity. The Indo-US relationship is set to evolve from a much higher take off point than ever before.

No doubt the post pandemic environment will have much to do with economic recovery and China will wish to be viewed as the enabler rather than the destroyer of the world economy. It has no doubts that the US has the ability to simultaneously remain focused on the twin tracks of economy and security. The outcome of that will mean no leeway from the Biden Administration in both domains. China will therefore conclude the necessity of remaining aggressive in all the areas that it chose to do so during the pandemic, without pushing beyond limits or sparking something it cannot control. Taiwan, Hong Kong and South China Sea are all in the domain of the Pacific with direct US and western interests. While Biden may wish to be seen to be more aggressive to detract from any allegations of going soft, China will probably realize it too and keep its push back within limits. It’s the Indian Ocean region which offers ample opportunity to project strength and influence and that too quite overtly. Sri Lanka and Myanmar are two such areas where the experimentation is already on. There is also the age old Chinese belief that giving India leeway in the maritime zone would be an invitation to disaster. India’s maritime warriors are jostling for greater resources to strengthen the Andaman wall and the Indian Navy’s own capability of contribution towards the Quad’s maritime efforts while a new Indian Maritime Command also comes into being. China will continue to follow the strategy of engaging the northern borders in controlled standoffs to create a major dilemma for Indian policy makers in the distribution of resources between the continental and the maritime domains. A strategy projecting temporary pullback from friction and triggering the same after a decided interval could well be the norm. Each time this happens it may give enhanced indications of possible resort to conventional war, forcing Indian overkill deployment and raising the spectre of a dual front war. The bottom line for China is that India’s potential maritime capability development has to be halted if China wishes to remain on top of things.

There is no doubt that Ladakh has emerged as one of the major areas of advantage for China due to proximity to the CPEC. In all other areas along the northern borders the strategic advantage of physical capture of territory which accrues to it is limited on the larger strategic matrix. Judging by the recent revelations of its perceptions of Indian strategic thought China would ideally aim to keep India engaged in small wars and engagements. The specific domain of Indian strategic thinking that this could address is the assessed Indian ambition of rising to the level of a world power from the regional power that it already is; China apparently acknowledges the latter.

China recognizes India’s strength of democracy but equally its weakness in terms of diversity and rancorous politics. It has used proxies in the past to weaken India and create internal turbulence but to a limited extent. It is therefore fully aware of this domain of hybrid conflict and how effectively it can be used against a nation as diverse in ethnic, regional and religious content as India. Through the Ladakh standoff we have not seen any major Chinese effort towards this due to the pandemic and the lockdowns but the rising potential of internal turbulence is something China could be looking at.  This is something to expect and steel ourselves against sooner than later; grey zone warfare adapted to the need could always be a weapon of the future in conjunction with border standoffs in different parts of the Himalayan border.

So, what must India attempt to do? A basic re-examination of options and priorities in National Security is almost mandatory. A lot has happened on this front ever since the current government has come to power. This is the time to step back and examine the contours of what we attempted and the direction we are taking; mid-course changes are necessary to re-prioritize. There are the external, internal, economic, psychological and military domains, all there to examine in detail. Our control over the external is extremely limited but to remain netted in strategic partnerships is a must. Indo-US relationship must only go forward and the Quad should achieve early consensus and operationalization. Engagement with China on all fronts may continue in ‘business as usual’ mode. Many will question this aspect of my recommended strategy. The truth is the oft repeated adage – ‘no permanent friends and no permanent enemies; relations between nations revolve around interests’. What will change and what will not in the next twenty years, can hardly be predicted. Therefore India must not box itself in by decisions that limit its options. We must continue to exercise full strategic autonomy based upon our identified interests and diversify our partnerships. The military has to be modernized through the route of self-reliance and India’s economy has to rise to higher levels of growth. Yet, the most important aspect of India’s assured handling of Chinese threats lies in the domain of national unity. The combination of an upgraded military, strengthening of cyber security and space capability, a more resilient economy, assured strategic partnerships, internal stability based upon mature politics and political unity, better relations with immediate neighbors and a continuous study of China by a combination of academics, strategists, military think tanks and psychologists, will ensure that not only dissuasion against China is maintained but our options are always multiple. The next time a standoff is triggered at the Himalayan borders, India must possess the capability of quid pro quo far away in the maritime zone.

 


Disclaimer

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views of Chanakya Forum. All information provided in this article including timeliness, completeness, accuracy, suitability or validity of information referenced therein, is the sole responsibility of the author. www.chanakyaforum.com does not assume any responsibility for the same.


Chanakya Forum is now on . Click here to join our channel (@ChanakyaForum) and stay updated with the latest headlines and articles.

Important

We work round the clock to bring you the finest articles and updates from around the world. There is a team that works tirelessly to ensure that you have a seamless reading experience. But all this costs money. Please support us so that we keep doing what we do best. Happy Reading

Support Us

POST COMMENTS (16)

Ashok Sinha

Feb 20, 2021
Holistic analysis of Chinese antics skipping controversial issue of Depsang.

DILIPSEN TAMHANE

Feb 16, 2021
Very revealing and a factual.

Maj Gen Pran Koul

Feb 16, 2021
I had posted my comment today - not understood why it is not showing up????

Maj Gen Pran Koul

Feb 16, 2021
Gen Ata Hasnain has scientifically analysed the Indo-China stand off at Ladakh. Keeping Chinese intentions in mind - it will continue to blow minor storms at the borders, choosing time and place, that suits its strategy, with a firm aim to pin India down. GOI has responded to the prevelant storm in a way that a matured and responsible regional power should. Having commanded the 'High Hill Surveys' in Arunacal Pradesh, upto indo-China border, way back in eighties, and incidently then my extensive visit to Tibet in 2003-2004, during my China tour - I had been of firm opinion that China is much superior in infrastructure development moreso in Tibet, at times beyond Indian imagination. I was surprised on seeing Chingdu-Lhasa railway line closely when it was being laid through a very tough terrain. During that tour I became very conscious of our limitations on that aspect. The present Govt has done pretty good by developing the infrastructure along our border though it should have happened two decades back. There may be so called silence at the Indo China border at present, but it will be punctuated by small and moderate storms from Chinese side in future with an aim to pin down India and make it feel psycologically that it is no match to China and try to maintain it at the level of Pakistan. India should not waste any more time in making its defence forces very strong which includes, but not limited to - Airforce, Navy, Military and the infrastructure. It may have to be offensive at critical junctures for, at times offense leads to one's defence. The most important aspect is that political parties have to rise beyond their political aims when it comes to sending a signal across that India is one when it comes to dealing with her enemies.

BN Sharma

Feb 15, 2021
Very informative article that covers Chinese approach to the region and its attempt to keep India engaged and uncertain on its borders with China. China has always been unpredictable and can spring surprises. Not very long ago, leaders of India & China were being seen meeting each other & hosting each other that started showing two nations engaged in working for finding peace in the region. All of a sudden, when the world was reeling under a pandemic, Laddakh happened. Chinese policy seems to be very clear, keep the territorial border issues on a boil and it will remain so as long as the borders between India and Tibet is not delineated and converted into a well defined international borders. Arrangement of LAC on perception suits them fine and gives China the advantage to create irritants starting with clashes of troops & escalation of tension on LAC. As long as the LAC which is working on perception remains, India will be presented with these situations every then & now. The solution lies in early settlement of LAC into IB on equal terms. To create conditions to bring China to that situation is not going to happen unless China faces some serious threat. China has a history & capabilities to survive by blocking the outside world so it apparently shows it to be least worried with the prospect of global boycott or sanctions. Seems this Asian giant is in pursuit to become most powerful country in the world, by expanding its reach and influence. India has a real tough neighborhood to handle.

Amit Shukla

Feb 15, 2021
Crystal clear, incisive.

Raj Jagga

Feb 15, 2021
Incisive strategic thought! The tactical and operational issues along LAC will have to be dealt with skillfully. Chinese can never be trusted; our operational and strategic actions should always be dictated by this fact.

Somanna Kuri

Feb 15, 2021
Nice analysis.

Brigadier R Vinayak, VSM

Feb 15, 2021
Gen Ata has analysed and discussed the Sino - Indian stand off and post stand off course of action in great depth and simplistic terms.

VK

Feb 15, 2021
Very original sir. Yes, we need to think deeper into the maritime domain.

RCP

Feb 15, 2021
Good strategic article

acitizenwrites

Feb 15, 2021
Enlightening perspective. Some different angles. Why should India not go on the offensive in future. Vulnerable areas are Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, & Bhutan. Maybe Tibetian card needs to be played actively and openly. Will that serve as a deterrent in Ladakh.

Anirrbun Banerjee

Feb 15, 2021
The piece written gives a very insightful perspective about the on-going border stand-off with China. Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain sir has articulated and pointed out the different dynamic that are in play. However as far as Chinese outlook towards India is concerned it's been as it were, like look in the east and attack from the west. More precisely China always had engaged or created friction points in our north and made us invest more on that front (include and concentrate land warfare elements) so that we overlook out souther borders, to make us vulnerable, make a dent in our naval capacity. It's nothing new. As far as concerned with the wrong flank is concerned, it's not just a political ignorance but also equally a rather lasy and miscalculation approach by the military. Respective Govts. have had ignored the Chinese equation or rather didn't want to disturb the apple cart, had a wishful thinking that if we don't, they won't. Probably late George Fernandes and the then defense minister was probably the first to publically pointed out our real cause of concern should be, however subsequent Govts. just chose to ignore the real trouble. Even the military think tank was silent and didn't feel like putting it's foot down to put across the point to the political class nor it ironed out its own SOPs even after Kargil. Ex-CAOS Gen V.P.Malik had pointed out in his own book how the army commanders at group and core level became complacent and lackluster effort on their part was one of the key ingredients in the making of Kargil conflict. Till now senior leaderships with their write ups and public conversation seems to project India and its forces rather incapable, ineffective at times to take on China, cast aspersions on the ability of the same force that they once commanded and been a part of. Some even change their narrative depending on the channel or platform they are in. It is kind of very strange that common man like me who hold military and its personal sacrosanct and absolutely committed towards the nation and its integrity, sometimes amaze and choose to wear political wear, rather than the olive green and writes, recommends and paints a rather different line which better suits the adversaries and political opponents who openly question the Govt intent, the valor of our forces and even abuses them. I was rather looking more to the way forward pointers in the sino-indo with the present and future context but it give away was rather headers and not very detailed...making economy strong, building capacity, engaging with like minded democracies, engaging deeper with friendly neighbours are rather all do's and don'ts from civic book chapter on cleanliness of neighborhood. I however differ when it comes to 'keeping business as usual' with China suggestion, as we tried that root right from Nehru to Modi yet we had so many ugly memories. Such a suggestion from a military man like Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain, is kind of unusual, as he of all should know what is business with equals means in comparison to unequals. I would rest my case on this note.....China or any other country should consider, understand and believe India as an equal to do any business and not with pressure tactics or arm twisting. Till then business and bullying can't go on.

Avinash

Feb 15, 2021
Very insightful

Hemraj Parmar

Feb 15, 2021
Incisive analysis!

Prof. Bhanu Gupta

Feb 15, 2021
Goodread. Very Educational Regards

Leave a Comment