Deterrence Options to Prevent Pakistans’ Continuing Proxy War-Part III

Part III – The Complete Integration of UT of JK with New India

The Fundamental Concept

Part I Link- https://chanakyaforum.org/deterrence-options-to-prevent-pakistans-continuing-proxy-war-part-i/

 Part II Link- https://chanakyaforum.org/deterrence-options-to-prevent-pakistans-continuing-proxy-war-pat-ii/

“It has been said that most revolutions are not caused by revolutionaries in the first place but by the stupidity and brutality of governments”

-By Seán McStiofáin, the provisional IRA’s first Chief of Staff

Part 1 dealt with the historical ramifications of partition, international and regional security environment including the interventionist role of China, and examines if Pakistan will ever stop waging its proxy/hybrid war. Part II dealt with the range of both kinetic and non-kinetic options against Pakistan which would impose caution and induce Pakistan to stop the hybrid war. This part analyses the internal dimension of holistically integrating the UT of JK with India, which is the most pivotal and vital component, to resolve this complex and chronic issue; To Fight Externally Win Internally First.

 Background to Internal Integration.    The quote above, while hard-hitting and difficult to digest, is a fundamental truth and introspection by the Indian polity is a must for bringing about a radical change in our strategy in the UT of J&K. The biggest battle to win to prevent Pakistan from interference in UT of J&K, is to win the hearts and minds of the people. While it is often stated that the ‘centre of gravity’ to resolve the insurgency in UT of J&K (henceforth referred to as J&K) are the people, one feels that it is axiomatic and more important to know and understand how and what to do. It is strongly recommended that two aspects should be addressed primarily; first, eradicate/demystify the notion of ‘Azaadi’ from the heart and minds of the people, that it is impractical, non-achievable and not desirable; second, convince the populace that people belonging to J&K are more aligned with the history, culture, Kashmiriyat and Sufism, social ethos and ways of life with the other citizens of India, and concurrently life in Pakistan is alien to them, as they will be misfits and second class citizens there, apart from a much poorer quality of life. A very challenging and tall order indeed especially in the face of resentment that the average Kashmiri feels towards India and the onslaught of a radical Sunni Islam on the foundations of an ingrained and easy-going Sufi order. 

Failure to Detect and Counter Hybrid Operations of Pakistan.   In Part II, we saw Pakistan changing its concept of operations from a proxy war to a ‘Peoples Hybrid Movement’. This entailed adopting a multi-domain (MD) hybrid war using both kinetic and non-kinetic means with a larger focus on the cognitive and non-cognitive domains of PDIME (political, diplomatic, informational, military, economic) and emphasis on IIO and PSYOPS. Pakistan has realized that wars and terrorism alone, has not achieved results, but earned the country lots of ignominies, which is being exploited by India. So, Pakistan’s focus has turned to a sinister political/societal/religious/communal upheaval in Valley and mainland India. Amplifying further, while acknowledging Pakistan’s change of tactics as a shift to an ‘agitational movement’ and continuously shifting priorities from terrorism to agitation based on Indian and international response, we have failed to recognize the contours of a much larger holistic ‘Hybrid Warfare’ being conducted. Acceptance of this is the first step leading to a synergized national response plan, which could have decentralized pro-active and reactive actions.   The pattern stitched over a period of time clearly discernible are: –

• Constantly highlight the ‘Hindutva card’ with greater emphasis against the current Government.
• Prop up demand for ‘Azadi, and keep the narrative alive at all cost.
• Rise of Jamaat-e-Islami Kashmir(JeI), Wahhabi Islam’s replacement of Sufism and Kashmiriat.
• A further exodus of Hindus while playing the sympathy card by Valley leaders.
• Indigenisation of terror.
• Innovative use of social media.
• Continue bandhs, stone pelting, sporadic acts of terrorism against visible signs of Government (JKP, Army, CAPF) within the UT.
• Periodically provide a surge/tempo to movement, carry out hybrid activities pan-India to include political, diplomatic, societal actions coupled with high profile acts of terrorism highlighting indigenous nature of the incidents.
• Pick up and further inflame sensitive issues and provide a minority/communal flavour (CAA, NRC, Ayodhya).
• Special focus on abrogation of Article 370 globally and internally. Deliberately provoke residents of Jammu Region against abrogation of Article 35A.

Sound and Good Intentions: However, Working in Silos. The resolution of the Kashmir issue and prevention of Pakistan’s proxy war has been engaging policy for decision-makers, at all levels and across domains for decades. The fact, however unpleasant to hear is that all the actors involved while harping on a ‘dynamic whole of the nation, all-encompassing approach’ are ‘happy to work in their silos’. Be it the politicians, diplomats, bureaucrats, intelligence agencies, Army, CAPFs and JKP. So also, international institutions (UN, OIC, SCO), allies and other nations as well as the various groups in the Valley. Their response and actions (ironically, even Pakistan) have been predictable and standard. A ‘New India’ revolutionary approach is needed for lasting resolution and peace. One aspect which stands out is the fact that Pakistan and Kashmir have become a national obsession and a major ‘breaking news and TRP’ booster for the media. With ever-increasing MD asymmetry between India and Pakistan, especially economic, India must carry on with its India Dream keeping Pakistan as just a minor irritant/pinprick by gradually persuading media, along with low key political responses to ‘ignore Pakistan’; while working silently on the larger picture, which in itself will reduce the problem psychologically and on the ground. While the Chinese intervention and strategic collusion with Pakistan has made the hybrid game and responses even more complex, Pakistan’s adventurism will remain operational and not existential.

India’s Integration/Tri-Colour Movement in Valley

A Long Hard Road Ahead.         Countering the above narratives becomes harder, as our democracy which comes with unique characteristics and advantages, is also a much easier playground to conduct hybrid warfare, given India’s myriad asymmetries, political, societal, communal and governing instabilities, which cannot be wished away. After introspection and interaction with colleagues[i], it is recommended that India has to launch a holistic, concerted, whole of India counter movement (Tri-Colour) to defeat the idea of secessionism, fundamentalism and terrorism in J&K. If this approach works it can be modified/adapted to suit other insurgencies in the North East and LWE (Left Wing Extremism). The good news first; the Valley is not fully subverted due to the malafide nature of Pakistan’s designs, treatment and quality of life of people of PoK; the power of social media which while playing a vital role in subversion, terrorism, and recruitment, also showcases the standing of Pakistan in the international community; the loyalty of J&K Police and a segment of local citizens; and the continued legal empowerment of Indian security forces. Pakistan is at its weakest geo-politically now. How far a road we have to travel can be gauged by the reactions of the people in the Valley regarding the ongoing standoff between India and China along the LAC in their erstwhile state; social media is abuzz with excitement and memes welcoming the Chinese. Despite knowing the track record of Chinese against the Muslim Uighurs, the locals at least outwardly are taunting rest of India, politicians, the security forces and JKP that the Chinese are coming and Xi Jinping will have tea in Dal Lake. Mr Omar Abdullah had to temporarily shut down his Twitter handle due to abusive trolls when he warned people what to expect from the Chinese citing the example of the Uighurs.

Concept of Operations.   To execute a synergized national plan to simultaneously address Pakistan’s Hybrid War at the political, economic and societal level with a focus on the UT of J&K while simultaneously eradicating the very idea of secessionism (azaadi), radicalism and insurgency/terrorism, and integrate the people’s heart and minds with the rest of India. Convince the people of J&K that culturally, ethnically, historically (Kashmiriyat and Sufism), and for the future, their well-being lies in being aligned to India rather than with Pakistan.

Pivotal Ingredients

• Being essentially a war of ideas, the concept of ‘Jus ad Bellum and Jus in Bello[ii],’ and strategic communication gain pre-eminence. Strategic communication mainly by engaging in Information Influence and Psychological Operations (IIO and PSYOPS).
• Sensitising the security forces and the general public of India to completely stop the infrequent instances of societal persecution of the people from the Valley region of J&K.
• The primary tool will always be ‘Satyagrahic/Peaceful’ (truth-force), a radical change with an intrinsic non-violent (ahimsa) with a soothing and gentle healing touch. This movement should emanate from multiple directions; the Government; Security Forces (SF) and JKP (J&K Police); people of J&K; national polity and India should be ready to face a long hard road ahead.
• Accountability and time-bound missions are the keys to success.

Concept Drawn from Teachings and Practices of Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela[iii].    The concept may appear revolutionary and to some will appear even outdated, a form of appeasement and perhaps defeatist, but to create a genuine permanent rapprochement and assimilation, a total change of approach is required. Historian BR Nanda explaining the ways, means and ends of non-violent movements said: “Satyagraha was not designed to seize any particular objective or to crush the opponent, but to set in motion forces which would lead to a new equation, in such a strategy it (is) perfectly possible to lose all the battles but still win the war”. To elucidate, Nelson Mandela with a combination of ‘tolerance, non-violence, reconciliation and forgiveness, created history and transformed South Africa from a frontline state of apartheid, profound racial and social discrimination, deep-rooted insurgency and acts of terrorism (Mandela himself was a militant and so adopted more pragmatic and practical processes) to a modern egalitarian society where people of all colour and race live gracefully and with dignity. Recently the action of ‘Take a Knee’ by white US policemen to diffuse the ‘#Black Lives Matter’ movement is a good example of a smart Satyagrahic movement aimed at hearts and minds. Main pillars/ingredients of the concept are: –

• End State- Redemption and Reconciliation. The aim is to transplant ideas and win minds and not seek to defeat/humiliate the opponent. The end state is reconciliation, redemption and assimilation.
• Direction of Non-violent Attack. Attack the idea and not the messenger. Intent, execution and good faith is the answer.
• Relentless Action. The approach should be relentless, with positive actions visible on ground drawing on the spiritual and cultural roots.
• Good Faith and Goodwill. The intent, good faith and goodwill is the essence of the plan, which must be felt and seen by the people.
• Ensure the Law and Order Situation.
• Separate the Separatists. A concerted effort is required to separate the separatists from the common citizen by making the separatists irrelevant.
• Synergy of action, accountability and time-bound implementation.

Apex Governing Body of Operation Integration/Tri-Colour.          Statesmanship, Statecraft and Vision of the highest order are required to implement the Tri-Colour Integration movement in the UT of J&K. We are fortunate to have a stable government at the helm, and there will be continuity at least till 2024. Good governance in all its facets is a sina qua non for success, and focus here will be on planning, preparation and implementation of the ‘Integration Movement’. ‘Setting the Stage’ should be done during the coming winter months, and implementation can commence from Apr/May 2021, with an initial timeline given for visible results as summer of 2024. The CCS needs to approve the concept and broad contours and timelines of implementation, as also carry out periodic monitoring. The opposition parties need to be taken on board in the interest of national security and prosperity. The ‘overdependence on bureaucracy needs to be shed’ and a fresh, mission focussed group of patriots who are a mix of domain experts (technocrats, diplomats, armed forces and para-military personnel, administrators) need to drive the Transformation. A political figure (only, and not a diplomat, bureaucrat or military professional) of stature, impeccable integrity and credentials should head the ‘Transformation and Implementation’ Body at the Centre to oversee the ‘Whole of Nation’ approach (deliberately MHA has not been given the responsibility being a multi-domain whole of nation operation, to cast away old and tired templates and mindsets, and to infuse new ideas and minds). Since the NSA and his institutions like NSCS are already fully committed, he should have an independent monitoring and executive Secretariat from all Ministries and the SF specially from the Army. A ‘go-getter’ and empathetic Lt Governor will oversee the actual implementation in the Valley. The current UHQ will provide an excellent initiating platform which can be modified based on domains activated. The ongoing operations of bringing the situation in the UT from public order to a law and order domain will continue, with targeted, surgical, counter-terrorist strikes with zero/minimum collateral damage and HR violations. Terrorist initiated incidents (TII) and appreciated number of terrorists in J&K while currently low have always waxed and waned. Low key counter-infiltration and counter-insurgency operations in all its dimensions will also continue in the background of the central theme of Satyagrahic movement, with negligible/nil media coverage. The plan emphasizes the non-kinetic, non-violent means to change the idea of azaadi to the integration with India, which should remain the focus under ALL circumstances despite violent disturbances or attempts by Pakistan to elicit a kinetic response. IIO and PSYOPS must focus on integration and NOT on Pakistan or TIIs (Terrorist Initiated Incidents). Broad contours of the plan are suggested below, and a detailed and overlapping plan with accountability, resource allocation (fiscal and HR) and timelines can be drawn up.

Preparing the Stage.     Till a holistic national plan is prepared and stage set for execution, actions which are ongoing and can be implemented are highlighted below.

• Counter Information Battle (Kinetic and Non-kinetic). Superior OODA loop over the nexus at all levels (strategic, operational and tactical). Address locals, Pakistan, separatists, ideologues, terrorists, protest organisers, financers, over ground workers (OGW).
• Secure the Environment.
  • Expand LC ceasefire to cease societal warfare to secure Kashmir from Pakistan (reduce visibility, AWAM activities, governance, private industry induction, visible infrastructure development, focus on education, sports, entertainment).
  • Intelligence, counter-infiltration/terrorist (CI/CT) (CI) grids to deny the nexus (terrorists, OGWs) freedom of action and to physically secure people from it.
  • Destroy/deny the re-building of nexus’ finances and structures.
  • IO and PSYOPS grid[iv] to psychologically secure people from separatist and religious ideologues. Initially by using AF(J&K)SPA-1990, UAPA, PSA and media to counter, arrest and de-radicalise these ideologues.
  • Smart non-violent ‘Joint Counter Agitation Strategy’.

Shape the Environment.  Targeting different segments to shape people’s beliefs and de-radicalise ideologues, youth and fence-sitters. This is the key, which requires expertise, detailed study, planning to have nuanced messages for specific targets, with timelines and reviews, and most importantly resources (fiscal, HR, and media tools).

• Gradual Removal of AF(J&K)SPA-1990 (AFSPA). This is considered a pivotal and mandatory initiating step to commence the transformation/ integration process. Initially, districts/areas which have seen nil/marginal disturbance and TIIs over a considerable period of time can be considered for removal of AFSPA. These areas can be handed over to the CAPFs/JKP to maintain law and order, as the situation has eased from public order domain. The army cannot operate in areas where AFSPA has been revoked as they will not have legal protection to conduct CI/CT operations. It is strongly recommended that provisions of AFSPA should not be modified/amended/diluted including the wordings, as they provide legal cover to the Army, and sends a message to the terrorists and OGWs. The Nation acknowledges that the Army exercises maximum restraint, ensures nil/minimum collateral damage, and zero HR violations and provisions of AFSPA has rarely been used. Examination of areas South of Pir Panjal ranges (Riasi, Udhampur) come to mind, and a bold step to look at one odd district/urban area of Valley be considered for revocation of AFSPA, but it should be left to those looking after the security situation in J&K.
• Deployment of Maulvis. Maulvis with credibility in the Muslim community within India who are rooted in the idea of India must be sent on deputation to J&K as also encouragement must be given to the Maulvis from the Sufi order.

 Contours of the Integration/Tri-Colour Plan.       

Main and Secondary Objectives.      The focus will remain the transformation of the idea of azaadi and planting integration. People’s minds are the primary objective and not CI/CT and security operations. This requires a transformation in everyone’s approach.  The main targets will be the anti-national bastions (leaders, institutions including social and local print media, judiciary, and towns/areas) and secondary targets remain the terrorists and OGWs.

Concurrent and Phased Multi-Domain Approach

• Pick Low Hanging Fruits Initially. Pick the low hanging fruits initially by incentivising nationalists and aligned tribes (Gujjars, Paharis) and target remote areas. Ensure window of peace and calm up to 2024, and exploit integration and financial benefits of tourism/Yatra.
•  Security Forces Ethos and Operations. It has already been fine-tuned over a while with emphasis on minimum collateral damage, zero HR violations and lower visibility. The kinetics have waxed and waned depending on operational and tactical commanders who change periodically. While challenging to implement due operational, security and safety reasons, the ethos has to be rigidly people friendly and empathetic to make locals trust the SF more than the anti-nationals, for their judicious and correct actions, moral and ethical values even to the extent that it has cost precious lives of the security forces. Any human and infrastructural casualties/damage be immediately addressed and alleviated.
•  IIO and PSYOPS. Pivotal importance enough for a repeat and can also be termed as strategic communication; the key to the success of operations. The power of social media is phenomenal, and it has emerged/positioned itself as an inescapable, powerful and ubiquitous tool for IO and PSYOPS. A modern-day unique example of the potency of IO and PSYOPS is the fate of four fully trained and armed Iraqi division by the US, which evaporated into thin air almost overnight due to a vigorous social media campaign launched by IS allowing approximately 1500 IS fighters to take over Northern Iraq and Mosul without a fight. Interestingly, IS had no real cyber capabilities but won a victory which was not possible; it hadn’t hacked the network but hacked the information on it. The positive impact of abrogation of Article 370 and 35A is an important theme.
• Choke External and Internal Funding of Terrorist Groups and OGWs. It is an ongoing cat and mouse process. Somehow, the perception created is that while everyone understands that funding is the oxygen of insurgency/terrorism, emphatic steps to choke it lacks the final and decisive push. It is a continuous, never-ending process which needs to be pursued painstakingly and relentlessly. All agencies involved need to be held accountable and progress report at the highest level taken periodically to provide the impetus. Blaming Pakistan will not stop the menace. Methodologies are not being discussed.
• Train the Activists and the Trainers and Initiate the Idea. Identify nationalists, locals with networking, marketing and communication skills, local leaders with moral and material authority, fence-sitters and locals adversely impacted by terrorism and establish a core team of Leaders and Groups. They are explained the central theme and idea, imbibed with sense of purpose and self-accountability, be trained in Satyagrahic mode of operations (belief, moral compass and righteousness of message, tolerance, non-violent reactions to challenges, patience, maturity, physical and moral bravery; many security forces officers and men have these qualities in plenty, and must be used), and be imbibed with a sense of ‘National Integration’.
• Lay and Spread the Grid. Create a rural/village and urban grid and task leaders and groups with time-bound and specific missions. The aim is to rid the people of the impractical idea of Azaadi and remove the fear of reprisals from the Pakistan proxy war nexus. Attack vulnerabilities of separatist leaders, Hurriyat and terrorist groups which are numerous.
• Gradually Make the Movement Visible and Demonstrative. Commence local/area/district level drives/protests and calls for integration and increase the tempo, scale and momentum, which will gradually draw more supporters. Highlight flaws of azaadi and secessionists/terrorist groups (attention on drug addiction, death of Kashmiryat, poor condition of Hindu refugees and their desire to return).
• Mandatory Stimulus to Economic and Infrastructure Development. Prime Minister has already called upon the Indian Industry to lend their weight in full to provide the necessary impetus both to economic surge and infrastructure development in the UT of JK. Barring some bland promises nothing much has changed, which could also be attributed to COVID impact, but which is already causing substantial disillusionment even amongst the supporter and especially the fence-sitters. The Apex Body/currently the PMO/CCS needs to cajole/persuade/ensure setting up of multiple projects and ancillary industries, create job and skill opportunities along with a massive infrastructural developmental surge activity.
• Blitzkrieg/Launch the Full Package. Whole of Nation – social, economic and political groups/institutions be included in these drives/protests. The size and enthusiasm for ‘Integration’ have to be maximised to aggressively escalate protests to demand freedom from secessionism, radicalism and terrorism. To illustrate, families of JKP, Armed Forces personnel from Valley, and students (especially of Army Public Schools) be co-opted. Sarpanchs, boat/taxi drivers, rehabilitated terrorists, tourism and Yatra beneficiaries, even Hindu and minority groups must be galvanized. The hybrid war nexus especially individuals and their ideas be questioned and exposed. Issues should also relate to developmental activities adversely impacted by the security situation and terrorism like the collapse of tourism and industry, closure of movie halls, unsafe and dirty lakes, Dukhtaran-e-Millat’s hijab/veil order, and lack of municipal facilities. The aim is to reach an ‘irreversible momentum for integration with New India’.
• Acceptance of Integration Pan-India. Within India, there has to be a visible movement in politically not ‘othering’ J&K especially the Muslim community. While appeasement has had its consequences, demonizing the Muslim community by some hot-headed political leaders has alienated many. Efforts must be made to win back their confidence in the ‘New India’ wherein the community can feel integral and accept the slogan ‘Sabka Sath, Sabka Vikas’ as genuine.
• Contingency Planning, Periodic Review and Modifications/Innovations. The above is self-explanatory and mandatory, while the central concept and theme remain constant.

Conclusion

 Pakistan is unlikely to change its spots and will continue to indulge in state-sponsored terrorism against India. Ironically, it is hurting Pakistan more, given the internal security and public order situation, international approbation, economic costs, loss of democratic values, the rise of fundamentalism and fractured Islamic fabric. India needs to employ all means within its CNP to prevent it, if it wants to break out from the confined strategic space of South Asia, to reach its deserved status in the world polity. While a ‘whole of nation’ multi-domain, the multi-dimensional overlapping approach appears to be the answer as enumerated, it is emphatically stated that the pivotal/vital ingredient is to first put our own house in J&K in order. For this, a ‘Satyagrahic MD approach’ to eradicate the idea of ‘azaadi’ and replacing it with the idea of Tri-colour integration has been propounded, which provides hope of deliverance. It is going to be a long hard road as changing ideas and minds is expected to be, but this approach is most likely to provide long-lasting peace, development and integration, allowing India to focus on ‘New India’ a confident, mature, balancing power of the World.

References:

[i] Discussions with armed forces and even civilian colleagues and friends (probability of ‘out of box’ suggestions higher). Had a few sessions with Brig Vishwas Rao, SM.

[ii] Multiple definitions and explanations available online. From Internation Committee of the Red Cross. Link-https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/ihl-other-legal-regmies/jus-in-bello-jus-ad-bellum

[iii] Drawn from own conviction based on J&K tenures and staff appointments at Northern Command (Col GS of Div in Valley, Commander of an LC Brigade, BGS and MGGS Operations) and as DGMO; and periodic discussions with colleagues and Brig Vishwas Rao, SM.

[iv] Andrew Glazzard & Alastair Reed, “Beyond Prevention: The Role of Strategic Communications Across the Four Pillars of Counterterrorism Strategy,” The RUSI Journal, 21 February 2020. Available at https://www.tandfonline.com