• 28 March, 2024
Geopolitics & National Security
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Arms Race in South Asia – Pakistan’s Imaginary Demon

Abhinav Jha
Tue, 18 Jan 2022   |  Reading Time: 3 minutes

If you’ve seen any Pakistani news in the last couple of months, you’d be aware of this so-called ‘arms race’ in this region. If not, let me quickly bring you upto speed (https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/11/09/india-imposed-arms-race-on-pakistan/). The usual suspect, China, is the latest country to add fire to the fumes (https://www.scmp.com/news/article/3162514/pakistan-india-aerial-arms-race-looms-nuclear-armed-rivals-tap-china-west ). At first glance, it does seem quite apt, after all, we’ve all noticed how frequently India has been testing missiles and various other armaments (Dhruvastra, Prithvi-II, BrahMos, indigenously developed laser-guided anti-tank guided missile, Shaurya, SMART – Supersonic missile Assisted Release of Torpedo, just to name a few) in the past year. Pakistan has decided to respond in kind, or at least try, with its own missile tests, ironically named after foreign invaders like the Babur missile, and its most recent procurement of Chinese J10-C aircrafts.

Why then, would anyone call this apparently obvious arms race imaginary? Here’s some facts and figures to back this claim: Pakistan has a population of 22 crores, with a per-capita-GDP of 1260 US $ while India’s per-capita-GDP amounts to 2116 US $, almost twice that of Pakistan. China’s per-capita-GDP, on the other hand is 11,891 US $, dwarfing both (IMF, 2021). Comparing military spending as a percent of GDP, Pakistan – 4 % (9th highest in the world) , India – 2.9 %, China – 1.7 % (SIPRI,2021), we realize that Pakistan is bleeding itself dry, especially considering the fact that Pakistan’s national debt surmounts to over 83 % of its entire GDP. This money could truly help the common citizens of Pakistan, rather than being spent defending against a phantom in Pakistan’s mind – a looming Hindu/Indian threat.

The reality is, India has never been a threat to Pakistan, at least not in the way it perceives it. The Pakistani establishment has convinced its populace that India will invade the moment their military might falters. This is the greatest con anyone has ever pulled on the face of this earth. The truth – about which Pakistan chooses to live in denial – is that, had India wanted to, it could have annexed the entirety of Pakistan, in 1971. India did not, simply because it does not have an imperialistic mindset. India, however, is a very real threat to Pakistan’s existence, not geographically, but to the idea of Pakistan itself. Should this mirage of India being the oppressor be broken, the average Pakistani will no longer support the establishment, and the country would, in essence, crumble. Hatred for India has been sown so deep, that it is now the only thread holding Pakistan together. Take for example, the crumbling of the USSR – no kinetic war led to it. It happened simply because the iron curtain developed rust, and people on the inner side observed how much greener the grass was on the other side.

Any ‘competition’ Pakistan has with India, then, is purely a figment of its imagination. Comparing India and Pakistan is not an apples-to-apples comparison. However badly India bruises Pakistan, it will still be punching down. India has, at long last, realized that its true competition is China, and it always has been. India being oblivious to its own potential, is India’s own folly. And this so-called ‘arms race’ is nothing, but a way India is course-correcting itself to align itself to be able to enter the same playing field as China. While it is true that China has had a huge head start, it is also true that it is better late than never, and if anyone stands a chance to stare down the Dragon, it is the mighty elephant, as China itself portrays India to be. They have recognized us to be a valid competitor, owing to our historical strength, the comparable population and the growing economy.



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POST COMMENTS (1)

Kalidan Singh

Feb 03, 2022
I wish it were a given that a confrontation with Pakistan will have us punching down in military terms. Recent history suggests this is a hasty inference. We scrambled at MIG 21 to counter F16s. We were unprepared for jammed radio signals, the brave pilot flew with no information from the ground (and is therefore a major hero). When the Pakistanis retaliated in broad daylight, their planes made it all the way into Indian territory before any interception. How on earth does this signal operational effectiveness or efficiency? We don't know about radio signals jammed, and don't know until Pakistani jets bomb us? We bring a club to a gunfight? And if we do these things, and can see the evidence that we are highly, highly vulnerable, how do we think of us a superior force? We may have moral and intellectual superiority, I see no evidence of tactical, operational, or strategic superiority of the type that serves as a deterrence. Pakistan is not deterred; they are always aggressive, we are always defensive (or fearful and passive until Modi came along). If we want Pakistan to take us seriously, we need to take aggressive actions by sending in our own personnel to destroy their key assets. Until we do this, nothing deters Pakistan. The story is even more dire with China; they regularly send incursions into our territory - we never go anywhere near, and have never ever gone on the other side. I am quite disappointed with the hubris in the writing on this website; it is rather disconnected from the reality evident on the ground for the whole world to see.

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