Arms Race in South Asia – Pakistan’s Imaginary Demon

If you’ve seen any Pakistani news in the last couple of months, you’d be aware of this so-called ‘arms race’ in this region. If not, let me quickly bring you upto speed (https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/11/09/india-imposed-arms-race-on-pakistan/). The usual suspect, China, is the latest country to add fire to the fumes (https://www.scmp.com/news/article/3162514/pakistan-india-aerial-arms-race-looms-nuclear-armed-rivals-tap-china-west ). At first glance, it does seem quite apt, after all, we’ve all noticed how frequently India has been testing missiles and various other armaments (Dhruvastra, Prithvi-II, BrahMos, indigenously developed laser-guided anti-tank guided missile, Shaurya, SMART – Supersonic missile Assisted Release of Torpedo, just to name a few) in the past year. Pakistan has decided to respond in kind, or at least try, with its own missile tests, ironically named after foreign invaders like the Babur missile, and its most recent procurement of Chinese J10-C aircrafts.

Why then, would anyone call this apparently obvious arms race imaginary? Here’s some facts and figures to back this claim: Pakistan has a population of 22 crores, with a per-capita-GDP of 1260 US $ while India’s per-capita-GDP amounts to 2116 US $, almost twice that of Pakistan. China’s per-capita-GDP, on the other hand is 11,891 US $, dwarfing both (IMF, 2021). Comparing military spending as a percent of GDP, Pakistan – 4 % (9th highest in the world) , India – 2.9 %, China – 1.7 % (SIPRI,2021), we realize that Pakistan is bleeding itself dry, especially considering the fact that Pakistan’s national debt surmounts to over 83 % of its entire GDP. This money could truly help the common citizens of Pakistan, rather than being spent defending against a phantom in Pakistan’s mind – a looming Hindu/Indian threat.

The reality is, India has never been a threat to Pakistan, at least not in the way it perceives it. The Pakistani establishment has convinced its populace that India will invade the moment their military might falters. This is the greatest con anyone has ever pulled on the face of this earth. The truth – about which Pakistan chooses to live in denial – is that, had India wanted to, it could have annexed the entirety of Pakistan, in 1971. India did not, simply because it does not have an imperialistic mindset. India, however, is a very real threat to Pakistan’s existence, not geographically, but to the idea of Pakistan itself. Should this mirage of India being the oppressor be broken, the average Pakistani will no longer support the establishment, and the country would, in essence, crumble. Hatred for India has been sown so deep, that it is now the only thread holding Pakistan together. Take for example, the crumbling of the USSR – no kinetic war led to it. It happened simply because the iron curtain developed rust, and people on the inner side observed how much greener the grass was on the other side.

Any ‘competition’ Pakistan has with India, then, is purely a figment of its imagination. Comparing India and Pakistan is not an apples-to-apples comparison. However badly India bruises Pakistan, it will still be punching down. India has, at long last, realized that its true competition is China, and it always has been. India being oblivious to its own potential, is India’s own folly. And this so-called ‘arms race’ is nothing, but a way India is course-correcting itself to align itself to be able to enter the same playing field as China. While it is true that China has had a huge head start, it is also true that it is better late than never, and if anyone stands a chance to stare down the Dragon, it is the mighty elephant, as China itself portrays India to be. They have recognized us to be a valid competitor, owing to our historical strength, the comparable population and the growing economy.